Most recent 2 days of Zogby Dean averaging 23-20 over Kerry...

[helleborient]

http://www.zogby.com

If you do the math, with Zogby's report that on Monday Kerry led Dean 25-18 and the 3-day average of M-T-W is Kerry 22, Dean 21....Dean is averaging a 23-20 lead over Kerry for Tuesday and Wednesday. Zogby also comments today "Dean is NOT in a freefall"

It will be interesting to see what the results are tomorrow after today's polling.

[mouse7]

1. But if two trains are travelling from Des Moines... n/t

[CMT]

2. yep, we will see, hopefully good news on a Dean rebound

and that is a good position to be in as we go into the weekend.

[Maddy McCall]

3. Averages are not important...Dean's downward trend, Kerry's up trend are

Dean is sliding and Kerry is gaining steam.

Results for today should come in about 9 or 10. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues, and it looks like it will.

[helleborient]

4. Factually, by the way the poll works, this is not the trend...

Kerry has gone downward and Dean has gone up since Monday.

Check the way a 3-day tracking poll works - it is the average of the previous 3 days. Kerry was at 25 on Monday according to Zogby, but his 3-day average is 22. Dean was at 18 on Monday, but his 3-day average is 21.

Dean up...Kerry down.

The post that says otherwise is spin unsupported by fact.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. Speaking of spin,

it is your claim that Kerry's poll numbers are declining, and Dean's poll numbers are rising.

lol, Let's see if Zogby agrees:

Released: January 13, 2004

A 3-Way, Bordering on a 4-Way Race in Iowa; Another Big Day for Kerry; Dean's Lead Widens to 5 Points Over Gephardt, According to New Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has expanded his lead over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt in Iowa caucus polling, 28%-23%, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds third place with a one-point increase to 17%, followed by North Carolina Senator John Edwards who bounced back to 14%.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=778


3 day average: Dean 28 Kerry 17



Released: January 14, 2004

Kerry Continues Surge in Iowa; Dean Drops 4 Points; Still a 3-Way Race with Edwards Moving Up in Newest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean maintains his lead over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt in Iowa caucus polling, 24%-21%, but has slipped four points, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry surged to a second place tie with Gephardt at 21% followed by North Carolina Senator John Edwards who climbed to 15 %.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=779



3 day average: Dean 24 Kerry 21



Released: January 15, 2004

Kerry Starts to Pull Ahead in Iowa; and Then There Were Four … in Newest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has edged Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt for a slight lead in Iowa caucus polling, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.

After trailing Dean by as much as 11 points earlier in the week, Kerry now has a single point lead over the previous front-runner, who is tied with Gephardt. North Carolina Senator John Edwards makes it a 4-man race with 17%. All other possible contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination have 3 points or less in Iowa.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=780

3 day average: Dean 21 Kerry 22

So, John Zogby, who, I'm guessing knows a little something about 'doing the math', says "Kerry Starts to Pull Ahead in Iowa...After trailing Dean by as much as 11 points earlier in the week, Kerry now has a single point lead over the previous front-runner"


but you interpret this poll result as "Kerry has gone downward and Dean has gone up since Monday"? I guess that is the same kind of math that is used when Dean says he is not going to raise taxes on the middle class.

[Hawkeye-X]

6. Very poor spin on Kerry's part.. n/t

[helleborient]

7. I suppose many here can not do statistics..

If the math is worked out, my comments above are correct and you eliminated Zogy's comment:

"Dean is NOT in freefall" (the emphasis is Zogby's)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. Look you are just plain wrong, it is unfortunate you can't admit it.

When you 'do the math' you are mixing up the rolling-average number and the one-day number, and using whichever one bosters your 'argument' lol Do you actually believe you are more competent to interpret Zogby's poll than Zogby is?

I never tried to claim Dean is 'in freefall' or that Zogby didn't say he wasn't.

But you are literally trying to tell us that up is down. :eyes:



You say "If the math is worked out, my comments above are correct"

OK, how about we pretend we're in math class; please work out the math and show your work.

[helleborient]

12. Here's the math...matches Zogby's report

Zogby reported that on Monday, for the SINGLE day (go back and look at the news report) Kerry was at 25 and Dean at 18 - Zogby said it was Kerry's best single day yet and Dean's worst.

The 3-day rolling average that now includes Monday as well as Tuesday and Wednesday has Kerry at 22 and Dean at 21...that means...

Kerry has 25 for Monday and an average of 20 for Tuesday and Wednesday, thus 20+20+25 = average of just under 22 for the 3 days.

Dean has 18 for Monday and an average of 23 for Tuesday and Wednesday, thus 18+23+23 = average of just over 21 for the 3 days.

This analysis is based on Zogby's reports.

Dean is ahead for the 2 days of Tuesday and Wednesday...Kerry is ahead if you factor in his best day of Monday.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. Sorry, but you are just plain misunderstanding what a 3day average is.

Jan 13

Dean 28 < this number is an average of the results from Jan 10, 11, and 12

Kerry 17 < this number is an average of the results from Jan 10, 11, and 12

Jan 14

Dean 24 < this number is an average of the results from Jan 11, 12, and 13

Kerry 21 < this number is an average of the results from Jan 11, 12, and 13

Jan 13

Dean 21 < this number is an average of the results from Jan 12, 13, and 14

Kerry 22 < this number is an average of the results from Jan 12, 13, and 14



"Kerry has 25 for Monday and an average of 20 for Tuesday and Wednesday, thus 20+20+25 = average of just under 22 for the 3 days."

Again you are comparing Kerry's one-day total of 25 on Monday with -- wtf - average of 20 for Tuesday and Wednesday - not only you mixing up the averages and the one-day total, but your figures are just plain wrong -- where did you get these 20's? I mean did you just make it up or what?

[helleborient]

31. The math proves you wrong...no more need for explanation

Kerry one day of 25 plus 2 day average of 20 = 3 day average of 22

Dean one day of 18 plus 2 day average of 23 = 3 day average of 21

Your getting outnumbered here.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

34. Thre are no 2 day averages.

They take a poll every day. Every day they average today's poll, yesterday's poll and the day before's poll to come up with a three day average, which is the number they report.

[dsc]

35. The fact Zogby doesn't report it

doesn't mean it doesn't exist. When I was in school only people with F's got midterm reports. Yet, all students had a midterm average. THe fact the teachers didn't report our midterm averages to our parents didnt' render them non existent.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

36. Whatever, there are no 2-day averages involved.

That is just something invented by the poster.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[KC21304]

60. I suppose many more here can do addition and subraction.

But thanks for the laughs.

[Maddy McCall]

9. Thank you.

Hard to refute the observations of the pollster everyone has been citing all week.

There definitely is a trend occurring, and it is Kerry and Edwards up and Dean down. Don't see how anyone can argue against that.

[helleborient]

10. It's impossible to argue when people don't understand tracking polls

That's sad.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. If you say the math proves you right, please show us that math.

You are comparing the rolling-average number to the one-day number, and if you try to show us how you 'did the math' your mistake will be apparent.

[helleborient]

13. Just look up...Kerry had a 7-point lead on Monday, 1 point lead for

3 days. Look at Zogby's report dated Tuesday January 13.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. In other words, you decline my challenge to show the math

that you say proves you so definitively correct.



But even so, you managed to reveal your error, the exact error I said you were making.



"Just look up...Kerry had a 7-point lead on Monday, 1 point lead for 3 days. "



As I said, your are comparing Kerry's one-day polling number on Monday ("Kerry had a 7-point lead on Monday") -- with his rolling average on Wednesday ("1 point lead for 3 days").

[helleborient]

15. My post #12 that says "Here's the math" please read...

And then explain my errors...and show your math.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

18. I've said it repeatedly, but for some reason you keep declining to respond

- you are comparing the one day number on Monday with the three day average on Wednesday.


YOU are the one making the claim that some math you did shows something that doesn't agree with Zogby's assessment of his own poll - the burden is on you to show this calculation.

[helleborient]

20. Let me post my math again...like on #12

Zogby reported that on Monday, for the SINGLE day (go back and look at the news report) Kerry was at 25 and Dean at 18 - Zogby said it was Kerry's best single day yet and Dean's worst.

The 3-day rolling average that now includes Monday as well as Tuesday and Wednesday has Kerry at 22 and Dean at 21...that means...

Kerry has 25 for Monday and an average of 20 for Tuesday and Wednesday, thus 20+20+25 = average of just under 22 for the 3 days.

Dean has 18 for Monday and an average of 23 for Tuesday and Wednesday, thus 18+23+23 = average of just over 21 for the 3 days.

This analysis is based on Zogby's reports.

Dean is ahead for the 2 days of Tuesday and Wednesday...Kerry is ahead if you factor in his best day of Monday.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

27. It's hopeless.

I give up. I guess it's better that you believe what you are saying anyway. lol - tell everyone you know that in reality, Zogby's polls show Dean is gaining. :hi:

[helleborient]

17. Waiting for my "apparent mistake" sheesh (n/t)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. Again, you are comparing the one day number to the 3 day number.

that's your mistake. Why are you acting like I haven't said what it is?

[helleborient]

21. Show us with your math how Kerry at 25 in one day amounts to

Kerry at 22 for a 3-day average that shows him not losing ground....

And Dean at 18 on that day with 21 for the 3-day average shows him not gaining ground...

Your deficiencies at reading statistics are not my fault.

I've posted my math twice and you have refused to respond to it.

[slinkerwink]

22. I can understand the math....and that's why the Kerry surge was on Monday

and only one point for the two days afterwards. Dean's still in the lead.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. I don't know why you can't understand it - it's pretty simple

you are comparing a three day average and a one-day result.

You accuse me of failing to respond to you, but this is the fourth time I've pointed that out and you still haven't mentioned it or reponded to it. Why?

[helleborient]

26. Your math is wrong...3 day Kerry average (that includes one 25) is only 22

3 day average of Dean (that includes an 18) is 21

The most recent two day averages are Kerry 23 and Dean 20


You are wrong, and I cannot explain it any more clearly.

[DjTj]

28. You are right.

Don't bother doing your math over and over again. If people don't understand it now they never will.

However, the reason they like to average over 3 days is because the error for any individual day can be very great. All that can be concluded from any of this information is that Kerry and Dean (and Gephardt, maybe Edwards too) are tied.

The claims of "freefall" for Dean are wrong. However, it is true that Dean has declined somewhat and Kerry and Edwards have been rising.

The interesting question is what the heck happenned over the weekend to cause this movement? Can this all be attributed to debate performance?

[helleborient]

29. Ted Kennedy in Iowa plus the debate is my explanation (n/t)

[dsc]

25. He is right and you are wrong

On Monday Kerry had a 7 point lead. When that 7 point lead was averaged with Tues and Wed it became a 1 point lead. There is no mathematical way that Dean isn't beating Kerry on at least one of Tues or Wed. He also has to be beating him in total for both days. I will conceed that Dean did worse on Tues and Wed than he did on Sat and Sun but he still has to have beaten Kerry. There is no other mathematical explanation. And the poster is right as to what those numbers had to have averaged. Plain and simple.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

30. Keep believing it.

I mean, you believe that Dean's tax plan won't raise middle class taxes; you might as well believe Dean's poll numbers are going up in Iowa.

[helleborient]

32. Sorry...my math was accurate...we'll watch for tomorrow's numbers

[dsc]

33. It isn't my belief it is simple math

specificly algebra. If on Monday Dean had 18 and his three day average (Mon, Tues, Wed) is 21, then he had to have had a higher score on one of Tues or Wed. He also had to have averaged higher than that on Tues and Wed combined. If you don't believe me ask any math teacher, in any high school, in any city, in any state. Heck, forget math teachers ask any 9th grader who is getting an A in algebra and you should get the same answer I just gave.

editted to make the numbers agree with Zobgy's.

[DjTj]

37. Okay, I'm not even a Dean supporter...

...but I was an applied math major, so I can't stay away from this.

Here's what we know:

Kerry's numbers:
(25 + X + Y)/3 = 22
Dean's numbers:
(18 + A + B)/3 = 21

Our variables are:
X: Kerry's Tuesday poll number
Y: Kerry's Wednesday poll number
A: Dean's Tuesday poll number
B: Dean's Wednesday poll number

We solve these equations and we get:
X + Y = 41
A + B = 45

Now, we don't have enough information to figure out exactly what these numbers are, but we can prove that it is not possible that Kerry outpolled Dean on both days. In terms of these variables, that means proving that this is false: X > A and Y > B.

This is pretty much trivial, because:
if X > A and Y > B,
then X + Y > A + B

However, we know that X + Y = 41 and A + B = 45, and 41 < 45.

Therefore, it cannot be true that X > A and Y > B because that leads us to something that we know is false. It is not mathematically possible for Kerry to have outpolled Dean on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The second claim is that Dean's poll numbers are going up in Iowa. Again, we can't give actual numbers, but we can prove that either Dean's Tuesday or Wednesday poll number must have been higher than his Monday number, which was 18.

We have, A + B = 45.

Again, let's assume that both A and B are less than 18:
if A < 18 and B < 18,
then A + B < 36

However, we know that A + B = 45 and 45 > 36/

Therefore, it cannot be true that A < 18 and B < 18 because that leads us to something that we know is false. It is not mathematically possible that both Dean's Tuesday and Wednesday poll numbers were lower than his Monday number.

That was kind of fun.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

39. Thank you. The statements you bolded are absolutely correct.

Those two statements are:

It is not mathematically possible for Kerry to have outpolled Dean on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is not mathematically possible that both Dean's Tuesday and Wednesday poll numbers were lower than his Monday number.


Again, both those points are absolutely true.

Does that lead to the conclusion stated in post #4: "Dean up...Kerry down."

No. The trend is up for Kerry, down for Dean. Even though Dean outpolled Kerry on at least one of the two days (Tuesday and Wednesday), even though at least one of Dean's Tuesday and Wednesday numbers was greater than 18, Dean's 3-day average is down in this three day period, Kerry's is up. It is important to remember that when we talk about three days worth of results, we are talking about 5 days of polling.

In the desperate attempt to find an upward trend for Dean, you've lost track of the simple fact that the reason it is a rolling tracking poll instead of a simple report of the one day numbers is that the rolling three day average is more accurate at seeing trends.

[helleborient]

40. And your refusal to acknowledge a 2-day average is wrong...

Even though the official poll totals do not show it...Zogby gives in his text on his site the totals for one day on Monday. Using that, we know the averages for Tuesday-Wednesday, and Dean regained the lead.

You seem very threatened by that fact.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

42. He said, she said. We've had enought back and forth on this.

You've stated your case, I've stated mine. I don't think there's much to be gained by continuing to say "you're wrong"

Peace.

[helleborient]

43. Thanks for backing out when it's obvious my math was correct (n/t)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

44. OK, we'll continue, if you insist. There are no 2day averages.You're wrong

Feel better now? :eyes:

[helleborient]

45. Zogby reported a 1 day total and 3-day average - use algebra and

The 2-day average is obvious.

I didn't invent algebra -- I only know how to do math.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

49. Sorry, but no matter how many times you repeat it, it's still wrong.

Zogby does a poll every day and releases the average of the last three days of polls. He doesn't make a two day average of the previous two day and then average it with today's poll.

There are no two day averages involved.

[helleborient]

52. LOL - refuse the obvious based on Zogby's text

You are the ONLY one posting here with your bizarre voodoo math refusing to say the numbers Zogby gave us. I'm quite confident Zogby would agree that the 2-day average is there for all to see...if they so choose.

Oh well...we'll see where the rolling 3-day number is for tomorrow.

For now Kerry 25 on Monday - average of 20.5 (or total of 41) T and W

Dean 18 on Monday - average of 22.5 (or total of 45) T and W

The simple truth.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

54. Ok we'll see the numbers for tomorrow

and they won't include any 2-day averages either.


Can we end this childish flame war now without you accusing me of 'backing out'? Please? Please consider this a polite request for a gesture of civility.

[DjTj]

55. Two day averages...

Let's start over:

Kerry's numbers:
(25 + X + Y)/3 = 22
Dean's numbers:
(18 + A + B)/3 = 21

Our variables are:
X: Kerry's Tuesday poll number
Y: Kerry's Wednesday poll number
A: Dean's Tuesday poll number
B: Dean's Wednesday poll number

We solve these equations and we get:
X + Y = 41
A + B = 45

The average of Kerry's Tuesday (X) and Wednesday (Y) numbers is:
(X + Y)/2 = 20.5%
The average of Dean's Tuesday (X) and Wednesday (Y) numbers is:
(A + B)/2 = 22.5%

Zogby doesn't do 2-day averages, but there's enough information for us to figure out one of them: Over Tuesday and Wednesday, Dean led Kerry 22.5% to 20.5%

We can't say anything definitive about Kerry's 2-day averages moving up or down or whatever, because this is the only 2-day average we can calculate.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

57. Thanks for doing the math

of course, it doesn't prove what the other poster said it did, lol

Released: January 16, 2004

Kerry's Iowa Lead Up to 5 Points; The 4-Way Cluster Continues in Newest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry moves into his second day of leading the pack by a margin that has climbed to a 5% edge over Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.

North Carolina Senator John Edwards makes it a 4-man race with 17%. All other contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination have 3 points or less in Iowa.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=781

gee, looks like I was wrong, Dean's numbers are up and Kerry's down... --no -- wait :eyes:

[windansea]

58. heh heh!!

:thumbsup:

[DjTj]

61. Kerry must have outpolled Dean 31% to 12% on Thursday!

We've got:
X + Y = 41
A + B = 45

We learned today that:
(X + Y + Z)/3 = 24
(A + B + C)/3 = 19

Where Z is Kerry's Thursday number and C is Dean's Thursday number.

Substituting and multiplying:
41 + Z = 72
45 + C = 57

Subtracting:
Z = 31
C = 12

Wow, I didn't even expect that, Kerry led Dean by 19% on Thursday!

[dsc]

41. you can play voodoo math games until the cows come home

but one of the following is true here.

A) Dean is down on Monday, up on Tues and down on Wed.

B) Dean is down on Monday, up on Tues and up on Wed.

C) Dean is down on Monday, down on Tues, and up on Wed.

The first senario is no apparent trend. The second and third are either no trend at all or in favor of Dean.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

46. Better call Zogby and let him know he's wrong about his poll.

:eyes:

[helleborient]

48. No, you just don't know algebra...or refuse to use it

That's it, period.

[helleborient]

47. And it's obvious the Kerry rise ended on Tues. or Wed.

Unless it comes back from today's polling.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

51. What's obvious

i that you and John Zogby have radically different interpretations of his poll.

[helleborient]

53. I fully agree Dean is NOT in a freefall and Kerry has risen over time...

But Dean is ahead for Tuesday-Wednesday...that is blatantly obvious.

[LizW2]

56. That WAS fun!

And I got it right!:bounce:

There were posts at daily Kos about this, but I just skimmed them because I didn't understand it, but now that I do, I think I'll go back and read them.

Thanks guys, that was cool.

[w4rma]

59. It is my understanding that Dean trended up and Kerry down over that 3 day

period.

[hellhathnofury]

16. My feeling is that things are moving so fast that polls...

aren't very accurate. Furthermore, Zogby's samples aren't that big.

The only accurate thing you can say about Iowa is that it is a 4-person horse race with Dean formerly at the front.

[bigwillq]

50. I agree. There should be no more polls. Every minute

the percentages change.