Newbie seeking knowledge on Kerry's rise

[funky_bug]

Looking at the Zogby poll, I am amazed that Kerry has come out of nowhere. I'm sitting here, scratching my head, trying to figure out what it was the he did or said to cause his numbers to start climbing at such a steady rate. Dean's declining numbers, at a seemingly equal rapid rate also have me puzzled. Like Clark or not, Dean is the front runner, and I didn't see it coming.

So, seeing as I'm all new to this stuff (don't knock me, I was Baptist during the Bush/Gore days, and I was told what to think and who to vote for), would any of you seasoned DU'er like to school me with your opinions on why Kerry appears to be climbing and Dean looks like he's losing some ground?

And let's just assume, for the sake of the discussion that polls are an accurate indicator of candidate positioning.

[Exgeneral]

1. Kerry got "out there" and folks noticed

He picked up several significant newspaper endorsements and I guess folks in Iowa still read those things.

He toured the whole state relentlessly while the other guys were in NH last week. It seems to have worked.

[maddezmom]

12. agree

endorsements, working his butt off, media coverage and people are rethinking and looking at John Kerry for the right reasons. He's my number#2 and if he does well, it'll be bad for my #1. But I'm glad he's getting his due, he deserves it for the years of service to the liberal causes.

[windansea]

2. Iowans studied votes and records

not rhetoric

[mot78]

3. I don't trust Zogby

his polls ALWAYS buck the trends, with the exception of Faux news polls. Look at the Zogby polls from right before the 2002 midterms.

[hellhathnofury]

4. After watching DU for the last 3 months,

I don't have a clue. Viagra?

[WilliamPitt]

5. A couple of reasons

1. He cleaned out the bloat in his campaign. His message was getting batted around too much by a dozen different advisors, etc., and that got fixed.

2. His record (Iraq vote notwithstanding) resonates with a lot of people;

3. Until now, the campaign has been dominated by the hard-core folks in the base who want to see Kerry burning in Hell because of his vote on the IWR. They've had their say, and rightly so, for a long time. Now, the rest of the people who vote are paying attention and weighing in. Those people care about a lot of other things - health care, education, the environment - besides the war, and Kerry stands in good stead on those issues.

[funky_bug]

14. I had not considered your point of view

But I find it to be a very logically based one. Thank you!

[burned]

6. I dont know..

Is it the new haircut? :)

[blm]

7. Simple. Kerry has a 30+ yr. record that MATCHES his campaign rhetoric.

That should matter, and the more people look into it the more they will appreciate who he is and what he has done and what progressive values he will bring to a future America.

[Auntie Bush]

8. How about this conspiracy theory?

The Republicans are afraid of Clark...so they are pushing Kerry.
Bad for Clark to have Kerry have momentum going into NH.

[funky_bug]

16. I'm never one for conspiracy theories

fellow Clark supporter... however, after watching the coverage of canvasing in Iowa today, I'm apt to buy into the possibility that the Republicans are afraid of the strong candidates. They painted Dean as being supported by junk-food eating, fumbling kids, and then covered Gephart supporters as being well spoken, middle-aged professionals.

So I'll thoughtfully consider your theory.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. No point in speculating anymore...

We'll know Monday night.

[IADEMO2004]

10. Kerry bought tons of tv time

and Iowa mail boxes are full of enough political mailings to heat New England

[AP]

11. I hear he is airing GREAT commercials.

From what I hear, I'm very jealous.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. Yes. There is a Vietnam ad that apparently kicks major league butt

I can't view it because I'm still on Windows 95

Real Player http://mfile.akamai.com/10211/rm/johnkerry.download.akamai.com/10211/011304_del_real_modem.ram

Windows MV http://mfile.akamai.com/10211/wmv/johnkerry.download.akamai.com/10211/011304_del_wmv_modem.wvx

Someone report back to me please! :)

[funky_bug]

29. Reporting for duty, SIR!

I viewed your link, and I must say, it was an awesome commercial. He speaks about "doing what's right" and says "it's RIGHT to provide healthcare for every american, it's right to roll back the Bush tax cuts..." etc...

But something weird happened when I clicked the link. As my media player was opening up (Real Player) and verifying my account information, the Club for Growth link popped up for about fifteen seconds. Any clue what that's about?

[Jerseycoa]

32. I didn't get it

on Windows player.

[blm]

43. Maybe there's a hack in that system.

I didn't get it. I'm on a MAC.

[Jerseycoa]

30. Very, Very Good

Sharp and direct. No fluff whatsoever. Theme is what is right.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[funky_bug]

17. Thanks!

But listen, you should see how rabidly enamored of Clark my hubby really is! If you could see (that's Clark4Prez for you DU'ers out there) what I see, you'd realize "freak" is appropriate. He is absolutely high on Clark. He makes me look as if I'm in a coma!

Aside from that, the alliteration is good, no?

[Auntie Bush]

27. Your're lucky

My husband likes Dean and I too am a Was freak.
That makes life difficult...he gets sick of my 24/7
whoopla for Clark. I've been working since last Spring
to change his mind. Wish me luck.

[funky_bug]

33. There is hope

First, respect your husband's decision to support Dean. We've all seen how much good a lot of "my candidate is better than yours" hooplah has done for those of us on DU.

Let me say, I was quite undecided, and also quite interested in Howard Dean. I wrote an entire research paper on his grassroots Internet movement, and I might have been swayed. Clark came out of the blue and I was semi-resistant, but my husband's enthusiasm for Clark, coupled with his respect for my opinions, eventually led me to consider Clark's viability as a Bush challenger, and more importantly as a presidential figure and leader. After hearing Edwards speak at the Fl convention, I was really sold on him, but then Clark took the stage and I was enthralled with his passion, intellect, and most importantly, his platform. Goosebumps and tears led me to my decision to support Clark, and I haven't regretted it one single day.

That being said, I hope your relationship weathers better than the GD board has since Clark came on board.

Good luck, and keep me posted!

[Auntie Bush]

45. Thanks for the advice

and I'll keep you posted.

[Jerseycoa]

31. Clark4 is your husband?

Cool. :)

[funky_bug]

34. He sure is

But not Clark4VotingRights (who is also way cool).

Clark4Prez is my hubby. So now you see why I call myself Wife_of_a_Wes_Freak!

Shout out to the hubby who is away on a biz trip and can't remember his DU password. I miss ya honey!

http://www.robinervolina.com/us.html (Dat be a pic of us)

[maddezmom]

36. Great Pic nt

[Maddy McCall]

37. Y'all are such a cute couple...

Hey, he's HANDSOME and a Clark man. Can I have him? ;-)

Just kidding. :-)

[funky_bug]

40. Nuh UH!

Took me 33 years to find that man. I ain't a givin' him to nobody!

[Maddy McCall]

44. LOL!

Hold on to him...and I would tell him to do the same to you...two attractive Clark supporters. Must be bliss! :thumbsup:

[funky_bug]

48. You are too kind n/t

[blm]

39. Very cute.

Here's to a great candidate winning the nomination...It looks like Kerry, Clark or Edwards will be at the finish line.

[funky_bug]

42. Thanks

We are in agreement on our top 2... I love me some John Edwards!

[Maddy McCall]

46. He's in my top three...

I love his family history and he IS pretty gorgeous. I can see him in the next decade being prez. Clark for the next 8 years, then his VP Edwards in 2012. How's that sound? :bounce:

[funky_bug]

49. Sounds like heaven

and a bit of eye candy too ;)

[Uzybone]

64. Damn y'all are a good looking couple

I guess its true the Clark does get the beautiful people.


As for Kerry...people are looking at his rock solid record instead of just one monumental mistake. Out of all the candidates I believe he would make the best president.

[poskonig]

15. I've switched from Dean to Kerry.

Others probably have as well. Kerry's professionalism, work-ethic, intelligence, and command over issues is very significant.

We need a Kerry in the White House.

[funky_bug]

19. One of my theories

It would be a logical (though possibly misguided) conclusion that the drop in Dean's rating and the rise in Kerry's are symbiotic.

May I ask why the switch? Is it, as others have theorized because the bloom is off the rose, or because of Kerry's massive tv ads and mailings? I respect that you make your decisions based on platform and not media hounding, but were you introduced to new aspects of Kerry that inspired you, or were you disillusioned with new aspects of Dean?

[poskonig]

23. All of the candidates have a good chance of winning.

What they do **in office** is important. Kerry has many of the strengths of Dean and Clark with little of their drawbacks.

[funky_bug]

41. Well put

You're decision making strategy is quite sound. I applaud your sensibility.

[adadem]

47. I did too

I trust Kerry and his integrity. I want a president who is ready to walk into the White House and knows what has to be done to get our country back on the right track. To mend our foreign rifts, to settle the situation in Iraq in a way that leads to peace, to get our economy moving so people can get their jobs back.

I believe Kerry has the experience and intelligence to do everything that needs to be done from day one.

[blm]

50. I still would like to hear your whole story on the switch.

It might make an interesting thread.

[arewethereyet]

54. in general terms and then specifically

Generally, races will tighten up as it approaches show time leaders will tail off and those that rise better tend to be the better polititians. Kerry is a good polititian.

Specifically, Kerry got serious (just in time really), the fur started flying and it was mostly Dr Dean's fur.

But the kicker is that you can't take the polls to represent how the people really feel for several reasons. Besides the political junkies, and despite of the overly early start of campaigning, people wait till November-ish to start thinking about it. If you ask someone about something they have not given thought to, you get a popularity contest so who has been on TV ? Those folks are very likely to change their minds if they find someone who strikes a familiar chord with them. Some people don't like telemarketers and will have fun with them. This tends to explain some of the contradictory results such as it being close dem v rep but less so bush v (fill in the blank). And there's more but I'm gettig sick of typing.

Maybe that helps.

Go Edwards !

[tameszu]

18. Simple--resources: he moved much of his national and NH staff

to Iowa once when he realized that his NH situation was already deteriorating: as he was dropping, not gaining traction in NH, Kerry realized that he wouldn't be able to overtake Dean and have trouble beating back Clark, who could afford to concentrate all of his resources in NH (which we have, to wonderful success!). Basically, Kerry has poured everything he has into IA--his money, all of his travel days, his national staff, his staff at most of his offices outside of IA and NH and a good chunk of his NH staff as well, and has flung them all at IA in a Minas Tirith-type last stand (please forgive the dorkiness).

Kerry's longshot bid is to use the bounce he hopes to get from massively beating expectations in IA with a 2nd or (egads!) a 1st to make him the "Comeback Kid" in NH, as he will immediately pour anything and everything he has left (including presumably whatever other money he can get out of his personal property) into NH. Completely ignoring NH and letting yourself drop into 3rd and in danger of 4th there is a really risky but possibly worthwhile move, since his recent drop means that coming in 2nd over Clark in NH will look much more like a win than it did a few weeks ago, when it would have just looked like a loss to Dean.

As a Clark supporter, I'd rather that this not work, but I have to admire the ballz and the strategery involved on the part of the Kerry campaign. If you're going to do something right for once, I suppose the time is now.

[funky_bug]

22. Great information

full of facts I was not aware of. I assumed all the candidates (save Wes) were heavy in Iowa right now, and light in NH.

I liked Kerry, once. Then he did that "show us the money" thing aimed at Clark, and he dropped a notch or two in my book.

I know the comeback kid thing will be good for him in NH, but hey... Clinton took third in Iowa, so maybe Edwards still has a shot?

[tameszu]

28. Oh thanks

And I think Kerry's move out of NH into IA was relatively recent. Gep and to a lesser degree Edwards have from the start been running light in NH--although Edwards is heavily distracted by the need to win SC, which he still isn't, and I think he has also pushed much of his resources to IA, hoping to largely skip NH, where he's pretty much doomed. Dean is trying to win everywhere, with a special focus on IA and NH--I think he's slowly shifted more forces there, but since he's a New Englander who's built up such expectations in NH (and IA), he can't at afford to just pull out of NH.

And of course Lieb is floating around NH. I was a little worried about him a few days ago, when it looked like he might be in danger of creeping past Kerry, but now I am much more worried about Kerry placing well in IA.

[funky_bug]

38. But what does that really foreshadow?

Harkin won in Iowa in '92, with Clinton coming in 3rd. In spite of the scandals Clinton endured, he pulled out in NH, coming in second to Tsongas. But we all know who got the big nod. Kerry needs the kick a win would provide, but Kerry winning IA doesn't worry me. Kudos to his campaign for pulling him up, though! I think it's awesome to watch the tables turning all over the place. And before someone asks, NO, it won't feel so awesome if Clark starts sliding around the room.

[cindyw]

55. You have to remember that Harkin is from Iowa. I understand that

he didn't have to campaign there too hard to win. So Clinton's loss didn't really hurt him given the hometown advantage of Harkin.

[tameszu]

61. Kerry winning IA would be very scary for Clark supporters

Because right now we are pinning a lot on NH. And our expectations have gone way up, since we took the lead over Kerry a week and a half ago. Coming in 3rd would now be viewed as a loss.

The reason Kerry winning IA would be very, very, very bad for us is because most of the support we've gotten in the past couple weeks pretty much came from Kerry's vote-his vote wasn't seeing Kerry in person and his crappy campaign made them think that he didn't have what it takes to win. But if Kerry wins IA, then he becomes the ONLY (positive) story--except maybe Edwards. That means that he would get huge press coverage and restore the confidence of a lot of long-time Kerry supporters that we've just picked up. And that means he would enter NH like a rocket, and we'd be a serious disadvantage against 2 New Englanders with strong support bases, connections, and GOTV operations in NH.

So that's why I am very worried about IA. I want Gep AND Dean to smush everyone else. Since we have no dog in the race, we want IA to be as clean and boring as possible, which mean no surprises. Ideal outcome by far is Gep beats Dean by a hair (after exhausting all of his money) and Kerry and Edwards are far behind.

[mitchum]

20. cream rises to the top

[oasis]

62. That's it in a nutshell.

[kentuck]

21. There has always been a large number of "undecideds"...

and if they go to one candidate over another near the end of the campaign, it can make a difference in the race. That seems to be what is helping Kerry, imo...

[DjTj]

24. The late-comers are not political junkie...

...Bush-hating pacifists, and the IWR and Patriot Act vote (and other "Bush-enabling" acts et al) are the only major criticisms of Kerry.

People who are just tuning in this week are not the enraged Democrats that have been foaming at the mouth since the Iraq War started. They want health care, jobs, and someone who will be strong on national security, and they see that in John Kerry.

To some extent I think Kerry and Edwards started so far out that they had to go up. They were both much stonger candidates than the polls were showing and as soon as people started paying attention the polls started to reflect that.

The tightening of the race really reflects a transition from activists dominating the political scene to regular people who will go to the caucuses. Although we feel like we know everything, the regular folk greatly outnumber us pundits...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. Re: going up- True. 20% is no big deal

45% (Like Dean had in NH) is.

[helleborient]

35. Kerry dropped the gimmicks...and focused on himself...

It has worked well for him, and Ted Kennedy hasn't hurt.

I do think that if he had done this long ago, he would possibly be leading in New Hampshire and Iowa both...but maybe it's not too late for him.

[mzmolly]

51. Dean has remained steady nationwide. Kerry is still polling rather low

in the national polls.

Kerry is a good solid Dem and a compromise candidate for many. He will be in this race for a while.

I think we will see Dean/Kerry/Edwards/Lieberman and possibly Clark in this thing for some time.

[bigtree]

52. name rec propelled Gov. Dean at first

A more serious look at all drew the poll #'s closer

[mmonk]

53. Kerry's campaign

is well organized and working hard on caucus goers, especially where some may be waffling and those undecided (is my guess). Caucuses are different for me as I prefer a voting primary.

[question everything]

56. Reliability of phone polls

I read someplace, and apologize if this was discussed already, that most of Dean's supporters are young ones who use cell phones, not land ones. Thus, they cannot be reached by pollsters who phone the voters.

[George_Bonanza]

57. I think the "undecideds" are pitching in

There was always a hefty reserve of undecided voters in every poll in NH and Iowa. Looks like they're finally making up their minds, and to them, the IWR is not a litmus test like some of the more determined earlier voters.

[molly]

60. Many of my political astute friends are just getting into this

they do not do DU, rather are active in state politics. January seems to be the month of political awakening and decision. It begins now.

[saltpoint]

58. Kerry and Edwards are both up in --

-- Iowa. Clark is up in NH. Dean's supporters are still very strong.

I think rather than any specific thing the candidates are doing, it's more a sense on the voters' part that there is a lot of good in our candidates. We have people with real strengths.

GOP voters have one lower primate to choose from, and his numbers aren't rising.

[JohnKleeb]

59. not sure honest

I think Ted Kennedy campaigning for him helped him out amongst other factors.

[IowaBiker]

63. Here are my thoughts from Iowa

First he's turned his campaign staff around.

A very similar thing happened to Governor Vilsack here in his first run --he had some arrogant folks running the campaign who rubbed the rank-and-file the wrong way. Kerry did too. But they are gone now.

Next, the veteran ad is very strong, and I think it's appealing for reasons many outside of Iowa can't see.

Iowa has sent a lot of Iowans to the Middle East. We have some of the highest numbers of reservists per capita serving over there. And contrary to what the RNC would have you believe, not all those reservists and their families are Republicans.

I have a brother in law serving over there, and a nephew. The photos with them in their uniforms sit right next to the TV. We get e-mails from the front, too. And when we see a young John Kerry in combat garb in the jungle playing right next to those pictures, it really hits home -- a lot more than some spoiled rich kid in a flight suit playing soldier on the deck of an aircraft carrier.

Kerry's team has finally found a way to make Bush's silly little photo op look like a silly little photo op. It's about time.

Finally Kerry is out in front of Iowans, which he hadn't been doing that much before (or his arrogant staff wasn't telling anybody he was here) and he's coming across well. I think his personality plays well with us pragmatic Iowans.

--Brian

[goodhue]

65. mostly tv ads

emphasizing his vietnam experience
also presidential rushmore-ready visage
also some confusion with bob kerrey i'm afraid (helps with name-recognition, which is what these polls essentially measure)

[Snivi Yllom]

66. Kerry getting attacked now

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=122108