The media tells you it's a TIE, but forget about the Incumbent Rule.

[TruthIsAll]

The Challenger gets the bulk of the undecided.
The Incumbent better be at least 4 points ahead in the polls right before Election Day. Even Rove agrees.

Toast.

[chiburb]

1. Yep:

[DemocracyInaction]

2. Thow out the poly sci book this election

It's not going to be that simple and that's why even Clinton warned of nothing magic is going to do the trick. This is the first time we've been attacked like this on mainland soil. We have tv whores in overdrive selling the Bush "terror" mantra. We have the images of the "troops" dragged in front of us every five minutes to remind us, etc. From what I'm seeing as people make up their minds, it looks like a profile of everything else---it's 50/50. Our hope is not here. It's in just plain getting out the vote and especially getting out those young people who notoriously get all jacked up and sign things and never show at the polls.

[TruthIsAll]

3. I don't know a THING about PolySci. I'm a quant.

tia