KCCI-TV Poll finds Kerry and Edwards Surging in Iowa

[Feanorcurufinwe]

With the Iowa caucuses four days away, John Kerry and John Edwards are closing in on former front-runners Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.

Polls indicate all four are competing for the lead in Iowa within the margins of error.

A poll released today by Research 2000 shows Dean with 22 percent voter support, Kerry at 21 percent, Gephardt at 18 percent and Edwards at 18 percent.

Undecided voters were at 13 percent and the other Democratic candidates were in single digits.

The poll of 600 likely caucus voters was conducted earlier this week for KCCI-TV in Des Moines. A pollster for Research 2000 says the recent results show that any of four top candidates could win Monday's Iowa caucuses.

The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus four percentage points.
http://www.kcrg.com/article.aspx?art_id=74205&cat_id=123

Conducted 'earlier this week'... basically a four-way heat, too close to call -- but I like the headline

[isbister]

1. So, maybe Zogby isn't the wacko pollster

CNN portrayed him to be yesterday. Those numbers seem to support what Zogby's been saying.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Dean loses his (pin)cushion

Out of 607 Iowa Democrats who say they're likely to attend their caucus, the former Vermont governor has support from 22 percent of Democratic caucus voters – that is down 7 percent from a KCCI poll taken just one week ago.

Sen. John Kerry is vaulted into second place behind Dean at 21 percent. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt has fallen to third. North Carolina Senator John Edwards rocketed up ten points since last week, to tie Gephardt at 18 percent.

In one week, Dean lost his cushion for a win, and Edwards support jumped 10 percent. With a 4 percent margin of error, the Iowa caucus has become a four-way race.

“We may see some buyer's remorse at the moment in Dean supporters, concerned about whether he has the temperament to be a good president,” said KCCI political analyst Dennis Goldford.

Edwards said he isn’t surprised by the jump in his support.

"I don't know how much faith to put in (the poll numbers), but they seem to be consistent with what I'm seeing on the ground and consistent with all these calls we're getting into our office every day," Edwards told NewsChannel 8.

With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992 – when he ran against Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin -- no candidate has ever finished below third in the Iowa caucus and gone on to win their party’s nomination.

How Was The Poll Conducted?
The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from Jan. 12 through Jan. 14, 2004.
http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2768802/detail.html

[OHdem10]

3. Watched Zogby on three diffferent channels

as he explained this polls. He said their is no way of predicting but Dean can still turn out to be the winner. He emphasized that organization is what counts and Dean and Gephardt still have the best ad strongest organzations. Also Dean has a lot of voters who have not particpated in the recent past and also new voters. It is unlikley these people are being captured in the polls.

Found it absolutley fascinationg that in less than a 24 hour period Kerry had been labeled dead in the water or done or and Edwards numbers had never moved from low single digits--Bam they almost the runnaway train. It is amazing how the media can setup a dogfight and
Democrats help them right along.

[sandnsea]

5. Kerry has an amazing organization

I have absolutely no idea how Zogby could dismiss 1/3 of the state legislature, the AG, the Secy of Ag, and Christie Vilsack. Does he think these people get elected without an organization??? Not to mention the firefighters and vets; and that doesn't include the just plain folks coming into Iowa to help too.

[jsw_81]

4. It's extremely difficult to predict the results of a caucus

Remember, a caucus isn't like going into a voting booth and pulling a lever, but rather a 2+ hour political meeting, usually in someone's living room. Will the newly "energized" Kerry and Edwards people show up when it counts? I doubt it. Dean's supporters, on the other hand, have been waiting for this moment for almost two years. My prediction? Dean wins by five or six points.