Are the 13% Iowan undecided potential no-shows?

[ALago1]

In an earlier thread, I posited that this race was far from over b/c the 13% undecided pool could sway the race either way towards Dean, Gep, Kerry, or Edwards.

I was given a reply saying that the "undecided" would most likely forgo even going to the caucuses and stay home.

Is this general political knowledge? I wouldn't know as this is the first primary I'm following.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

1. I can tell you one thing for certain.

None of the candidates have dismissed the undecided vote. As for who it favors. :shrug:

[HumanPatriot]

2. It depends...

Did the poll cite 13% of very likely caucus goers? And of how many of those are likely in truth? Its easier to say so over the phone than go spend 8 hours of your life at a political meeting. Think about it...if someone isn't involved enough by now to support someone, it is very likely they have other plans or priorities.

It is foolish for anyone in a caucus, or vote for that matter, to rely on the undecideds at this point in the race for a victory. Many of those are also uninvolved, and unlikely to truly participate anyway.

[ALago1]

3. The poll I am basing my info on...

...made no specification as to whether they were likely caucus voters.

I think I agree with your basic analysis. Thanks for the reply.

On edit: That is assuming that this poll was NOT of likely caucus voters but rather just Dems. in general.

[Maddy McCall]

5. That is unsound political reasoning.

Mark my word, that 13% undecided is vital to all candidates. And the people who have been in the "decided" numbers have been switching their alliegance, as Kerry, Edwards, and Gep's upward numbers and Deans downward numbers demonstrate.

The undecideds may ACTUALLY be listening to what the candidates have to say, and may be actually watching the candidates to see which flubs up before the primary, before they place themselves firmly in one camp.

[ALago1]

6. But the caucus is 4 days away

Don't you think that if one was planning on attending,they would have narrowed down their choices by now?

[Maddy McCall]

7. This is the primary with a field of democrats running...

many similarities in the platform by virtue that these folks are all in the same party. Iowan Democrats are still trying to ascertain the differences and the assets and liabilities of candidates. They are observing the field and they will make their decision soon.

It is not too late for them to decide.

[HumanPatriot]

8. Thats idealistic to think no doubt,

but I simply do not think it is realistic. IMO, a caucus is a great way to know though, because the man who wins may not do it on undecideds or partially committeds, but fired up and involved people who actually show up. Lets see how those turn out in relation to the polls...

[rhite5]

4. No, I doubt that's truly the expectation

The "undecideds" were over 30% just a few weeks ago. Iowans and others have waited to learn more substantive stuff from the candidates than they saw for months on TV. Right now, Iowans are still learning.

[Adjoran]

9. Uncommitted is a choice at the caucuses

In fact, "Uncommitted" actually WON the 1976 Iowa caucuses. The media didn't know how to report that, they weren't prepared for it, so they declared second-place Jimmy Carter the "winner."

You can bet that at least half of those people will caucus uncommitted at their meetings, at least at first until they see how the candidates are doing with their neighbors.

The polls mean less in Iowa than in primary states. Not only do they have to actually go out for the evening on a cold Monday night, but unless you know who everyone's second choice is, you can't really have a clue what will happen.

I've heard - but never seen confirmed in polling - that Edwards is "nearly everyone's second choice." If that's true, he could win the thing. Supporters of candidates with less than 15% of the support at the precinct join candidates who have at least 15%. Being the second choice is a big help in Iowa.

[ALago1]

10. Interesting. Thanks for the info n/t

[iowapeacechief]

11. Have any polls reported second choices...

among likely caucus participants? I haven't seen one.