Robert Kuttner of American Prospect: Convention battle to Clark?

[snyttri]

Boston Marathon
Will there be a race to the finish this summer at the Democratic National Convention? It could happen.

By Robert Kuttner
Web Exclusive: 1.15.04

<snip>

With proportional representation, this dynamic peels off a few delegates here and a few there. The front-runner could well come into the convention (stagger in?) with fewer than forty percent of the delegates. The Democrats also have 715 "super-delegates" who are elected officials and party leaders. But these delegates have no consensus favorite, either.

If I'm right, what does this portend? For the Democrats, it's part bad news, part good news. The bad news is that the circular firing squad goes on another six months. The good news is that the race starts generating real excitement.

With this scenario, the fragmented delegate count produces several possible permutations. After the first convention ballot, delegates can switch their votes, and then the bargaining starts. If Dean comes in with, say, 35 percent of the delegates, Clark with 30, and Gephardt with 25, we could get a Dean-Clark ticket; or Clark-Dean; or Clark-Gephardt, and so on. The one with the delegate edge coming in is not necessarily the nominee since it takes fifty percent to be nominated.

The winner? The most likely nominee in my view is Wesley Clark, even if he doesn't have the most delegates on the first ballot, because delegates would turn to the candidate with the best chance of beating Bush. Clark, in turn, would be under heavy pressure to invite Dean onto the ticket as his running mate, because Dean enthusiasts would be inclined to bolt if their man had the most delegates but was denied the nomination. An alternative is Dick Gephardt, who could strengthen the ticket in the battleground states of the Midwest, but a Clark-Gephardt would increase the risk of Deaniacs going away mad.

http://www.prospect.org/webfeatures/2004/01/kuttner-r-01-15.html

[xxqqqzme]

1. I do not understand

I do not C how gephardt adds to the ticket. Other than Union endorsements, there R great pictures of him smiling away @ squatter in the Rose Garden.

[KittyWampus]

2. The Scenario I See Is Clark & Kerry

with Dean having the least votes in the end.

[kodi]

3. more likely a compromise will NOT be clark, dean or gephardt, but edwards

its no compromise when you cede the victory to your major opponents. all one has done there is lose. but if the top three are stymied, then an alternative candidate can be the compromise.

actually i am hoping the convention is hung, with al gore as the eventual candidate, with edwards or clark as the vp candidate.

no one has given bush more hell than gore, no one has the broad-based and instant support gore has and no one can take it to bush like gore can.

[Renew Deal]

4. Edwards may nothave any delegates

I think the point of the article is that some of these guys will have delegeats. Edwards won't have many if things go the way they are going.

I do not want to see Gore be the nominee. He has had his chance. I have seen him since and I remember every reason why I didn't like him.

[Renew Deal]

5. That would be incredible, but I am not sure if I can take another 6 months

of this. I doubt it would happen. Terry M. wants this over by March 3. There would be a lot of politicking going on to end the race in March. It would be an incredible thing to see if it happened.