Zogby 1/16: Kerry 24, Dean 19, Gep 19, Edwards 17. Iowa.

[chimpymustgo]

Just announced on the Today Show. I'll go find a link.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&e=1&u=/nm/20040116/pl_nm/campaign_poll_dc

Thanks cal04 for the link and welcome to DU!

[maddezmom]

1. holy crap!

looking for link now, too. :)

[LizW2]

2. Yikes

Okay, the person on daily Kos who predicted that Friday's average would be lower for Dean was right. I have to go back now and read the post again to see how they knew.

[cal04]

3. Link: Kerry Opens a Lead in Tight Iowa Race

Poll: Kerry Opens a Lead in Tight Iowa Race


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=615&e=1&u=/nm/20040116/pl_nm/campaign_poll_dc

[newyawker99]

41. Hi cal04!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[helleborient]

4. Welcome back to the campaign John Kerry

He's running the campaign he should have been running starting last spring - no gimmicks, the Kerry impressive resume, and Ted Kennedy.

If Kerry wins Iowa, Clark is in serious trouble in New Hampshire...it looks to me like New Hampshire may be a Dean-Kerry race.

[slinkerwink]

6. same here too......and that presents a real opposition to Dean

complete with a domestic voting record also.

[SahaleArm]

7. If Dean loses Iowa to Kerry - He's in trouble...

Will he be able to regain his momentum by Jan-27th?

[helleborient]

10. Does Clark have the money and organization in every state? (n/t)

[SahaleArm]

12. IMO Clark's covered through Feb-3rd after that Dean has an advantage...

over the entire field in terms of mobilized orgs. Money won't be an issue until Super Tuesday.

[floridaguy]

29. Clark is superbly organized and funded in Florida -no worries

As a regional coordinator in Southwest Florida, I can assure the Clark campaign is well organized and well funded. With new groups forming daily, e.g., Marco Island, Sanibel-Captiva Islands, and Bonita-Estero, along with metro areas of Ft.Myers/Cape Coral, Clark is the only campaign highly organized in this area. Just on the Gulf Coast of Florida, we have an organization of over 1,000 volunteers and contributors. The East Coast and Central Florida, which are more Democratic, have even bigger numbers and fantastic organizations run by political veterans.

In fact at the state convention in Orlando, other supporters were heard to say "holy crap, where did all these Clark people come from".
When Clark arrived, the rally was near pandemonium. On Saturday, busloads of union supporters arrived to support Dean, but it was obvious to anyone there that the Clark supporters were the group with the positive energy.

Our state organization now includes several state and county officials and is lead by a former state Secretary of Commerce. Just this week, the mayor of Key West endorsed Clark, while reminding people of their motto, "One Human Family".

Wes Clark is uniting and energizing people like never before. I have been involved in politics my whole life. My cousin served as a Democratic U.S. Senator for 25 years and also served as Florida's governor. My father served in local office for 20 years. With a degree in Law and Political Science, I truly believe that Wes Clark
is the best Presidential candidate in my lifetime.

Florida is ready to elect Wes Clark.

[mikehiggins]

34. Hey, don't forget us

Gulf Coast for Clark is doing a bang-up job here in the Tampa-St Pete area, building a multi-county coordinating committee as an umbrella for eight heavily populated counties in the region.

Here in Pinellas County, Linda Lerner and the gang have put together a really effective group that includes many members of the PCDEC and makes a display at just about every Democratic function in town.

Not to denigrate the other campaigns. The Kerry people are quieter but no less visible. The Dean folks are all over the place (I just saw a clutch of them braving 70 degree temperatures waving Dean signs on a major intersection in Largo--"Fire the Liar" was my fav) but us Clarkistas are coming on strong.

Here in Pinellas, it's not just about our candidates, it's about sending Bush home in November. We were just about the only county in Florida to go solidly Gore in 2000 and that was our election that got stolen.

Never forget; never forgive!

[adadem]

31. Kerry is second in money

http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/index.asp

Oct 15 is the latest OS has.

I'm sending another 500 to celebrate his rise this morning. It wasn't all that long ago Kerry was considered down and out...

on edit..not counting shrubby

[SahaleArm]

5. Full MSNBC/Reuters Zogby Poll - Iowa (Link)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3936832/

On Edit:

Favorables/Unfavorables/DK

Kerry - 80/10/10
Dean - 67/27/7
Gephardt - 75/19/6
Edwards - 72/8/20

[spooky3]

8. Excellent favorable to unfavorable ratio for JE

wish he could get through to all those Don't Knows

[blm]

38. If there was a real media, Kerry and Edwards would've been on top long ago

And Kucinich would be right up there, too.

[flpoljunkie]

20. From Zogby today, Kerry lead across the board.

Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry leads among Democrats, young and old voters, men and women, liberals and moderates, and those who say they are 'definitely voting' on Monday.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=781

[AP]

23. Looks like Edwards needs to introduce himself to a few more people

and it looks like if he does he's going to do well.

[anti-bush]

9. Good lord!

This thing is just getting crazy. What is going on?

Which of the talking heads is going to go out on a limb and make a prediction?

[jsw_81]

11. I'm not worried

Dean has Iowa energized like never before; Kerry's phony "lead" won't last more than a day.

[slinkerwink]

14. same here too----reports from the ground show that thousands of

Dean volunteers are coming in to canvass neighborhoods, get thousands of Iowans out to caucuses by caravans.

[Democrats unite]

25. I am surprised you were not the one to post this.

You have been so good at getting the polls posted for us. Maybe it was the numbers?

[markus]

28. Kind of a cheap shot

since it was just released.

I'm not surprised by either Kerry's or Edward's late attraction to undecided voters. They are both very attractive candidates.

And the real story remains: Dick Gephardt, the man who's probably asked everyoen in Iowa personally for the vote sometime in the last fifteen years, remains stalled in the same place.

[mikehiggins]

35. The real story remains that those who said we should anoint their

candidate and just shut up appear to be getting proven wrong.

How long ago was it that Al Gore and the others were telling the rest of the party that it was all over and we should fall into line with the obvious winner? How many times were the rest of us scoffed at when we pointed out there hadn't been one vote counted?

Even if Dean ekes out a victory by five or six points his bus has thrown a tire. He may still win--he may still deserve to win--but maybe now he'll learn to win with a little more humility and a lot less arrogance.

Good luck to all the candidates on Monday. Just going to the caucuses in the weather they are facing makes them true Heroines and Heros of the Democratic Party!

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. Ruh Roh!

Trouble in paradise! Gephardt and Dean are tied? Gep could do some damage here too.....he has a huge union following and the unions VOTE.

[maddezmom]

15. OT: love that photo

Wes and Gert are a great looking couple. :)

[molly]

18. Smart too!

I like them.

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. I thought it was

a great picture of them. They just "go together", don't they? Beautiful couple and HIGHLY intelligent.:)

Go, Wes!

[Kahuna]

16. Karamba!

:D

[curse10]

17. Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!

This makes my day :-)

[molly]

19. Me too!!!

:thumbsup:

:kick:

:toast:

[DancingBear]

22. Well, isn't this interesting

New ballgame in Iowa.

I think the fascinating part of the whole caucus will be Round 2+, when everyone starts to think about shifting allegiances. If Kerry maintains this momentum, this is incredibly damaging to Dean, no matter how much ground support he has. The perception is beginning to take hold that he is not the strongest candidate to beat Bush, and no amount of ground support can stem that. If Iowans feel that someone else is better, so too soon will the rest of the country.

Dean MUST win Iowa. Convincingly.

[Killarney]

24. Wow. Kerry is on fire lately!

I really thought he was all done, but it just goes to show you that this race is still open.

By the way, chimpymustgo, I absolutely love your username. It cracks me up every time I see it. :toast:

[chimpymustgo]

26. Thanks Killarney. But I was just thinking yesterday...

what happens when we WIN in November - which I STRONGLY believe will happen, with any number of ticket combinations - my username will be obsolete - and I can't wait.

Go Dems!

[HFishbine]

27. No doubt, this will be a test

Of Dean's new organizing methods and appeal to new voters. Why? This from Zobgy:

"Slight weights were added to party, age, education, union, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population."

The polls are being adjusted to reflect what the pollsters consider the "voting population." If the Dean phenomenom has any juice, it will bring people to caucus who are not normally the voting population.

If the final results are similar to the polling resutls, it will be a crack in the notion that Dean is bringing new voters to the table.

[robbedvoter]

30. I believe Zogby about as much as Ari Fleischer

Seems to me he's lowering expectations for his client here. I suspect Dean is actually in a much better shape than Zogby would let us believe - shooting for that "surprise!" headline.

[chimpymustgo]

33. Ding ding ding ding ding! Zobgy's polls have tended to pump Dean.

I think the "lowering of expectations" is part of his campaign of support. Dean will almost certainly win Iowa - but now he'll be the Comeback Kid - at least that's the plan.

Strange things are going on out in those cornfields.

[poskonig]

32. Imagine if Dean finishes 3rd and Kerry finishes 1st.

We will be speculating who the "antiKerry" will be in NH next week.

[windansea]

36. who woulda thunk??

congrats to kerry!!

[bigtree]

37. holy crap!

This is what I was lookin' for.

[mzmolly]

39. They're is a dead heat in Iowa because of the margin of error.

but it's interesting none the less.

[bigtree]

40. Dead Heat?

possibly. Polls should be taken as suspect.

Sure feels goood though, when you're up. Frustrating when you're down.