Dean In 1st By One Percentage Point in new Iowa Poll

[Freddie Stubbs]

DES MOINES, Iowa -- It looks like the Iowa caucuses are too close to call.

Results of an exclusive NewsChannel 8 poll released Thursday evening show Howard Dean is leading among Iowa Democrats, but only by one percentage point. His standing has fallen significantly since KCCI's last poll one week ago. And his competitors have gained ground.

Out of 607 Iowa Democrats who say they're likely to attend their caucus, the former Vermont governor has support from 22 percent of Democratic caucus voters – that is down 7 percent from a KCCI poll taken just one week ago.

Sen. John Kerry vaulted into second place behind Dean at 21 percent. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt fell to third. North Carolina Senator John Edwards rocketed up 10 points since last week, to tie Gephardt at 18 percent.

more: http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2768802/detail.html

[Walt Starr]

1. These polls are all over the place!

There's only one way we;'ll have an answer as to who is in what place in Iowa.

Wait unil Monday night, because that's the only time we'll get an answer.

[TreasonousBastard]

7. Aside from...

that candidate thing, I agree.

It's getting down to the wire, and the polls are changing hourly.

Nothing counts but the results. All the rest is wasted time and energy.

Somebody's gonna win, and the polls have nothing to do with it.

[chimpymustgo]

2. Edwards with a bullet. Kerry rising.

Man - Monday night could be a late one.

[flpoljunkie]

16. Zogby reports today that Kerry support is across the board...

Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry leads among Democrats, young and old voters, men and women, liberals and moderates, and those who say they are 'definitely voting' on Monday.

[Kahuna]

3. Zogby has Kerry ahead by 4 pts with Dean tied with Gep.

nt

[joefree1]

14. How's Clark doing in Iowa?

nt

[mzmolly]

21. If you take into consideration the margin of error, you've got a dead

heat.

[HereSince1628]

4. Apparently cell phone numbers are not included in polls

That has the potential to age bias the polls toward older ages since young people don't have as much reliance on land lines. Add that to small sample sizes and confidence sort of goes out the window.

I'd like to know how many voters are called but aren't included because they say they are republicans or usually don't attend caucuses so that we could compare that to historic records to see if there is a reliable match to the sample.

[mzmolly]

23. Not only that but they only poll previous caucaus goers so it doesn't

reflect those new to the process.

[WilliamPitt]

5. Mix all the polls together and its a wash

Gonna be a hot time in Iowa.

[LuminousX]

6. At this stage, all the polls tell us is

Iowa is going to be close.

I think Dean supporters have a lot more riding on Iowa than any of the others, so seeing him behind Kerry right now is disheartening. We can recite the historical trends of Iowa winners and losers until we are blue in the face, but I know some of us, okay, maybe just me, want a Dean blow out in Iowa and New Hampshire followed by a respectable placing in South Carolina.

Unless something significant happens today, there won't be a blow out, it will be a slugfest.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. What the polls don't tell us

is who caucus goers second choice is. Some candidates are not going to get 15%, and those candidate's supporters are going to back someone else. I would really like to see some polls numbers on this.

[AP]

12. You can rest assured that the campaigns have purchased that data.

And you can probably discern from their campaign strategies what that data is telling them.

[Snivi Yllom]

9. i think Zogby is pimping for Kerry

Something stinks. My guess is Dean still leads and will win.

[Byronic]

10. Or on the other hand

Zogby might be pimping for Dean. If Dean is seen as behind now, a slim Iowa victory will be seen as something of a comeback. It's all about expectations.

But since Zogby could not possibly accurately poll a caucus it all seems to be academic.

I still think John Kerry will claim a strong 3rd in Iowa. It's tough to live with Gephardt and Deans organization there.

But, you never know.....paging Mr Whouley, paging Mr Whouley

;-)

[LuminousX]

15. I trust Zogby

I also have read enough about trying to poll for a caucus and realize that trying to determine likely caucus goers is a less than scientific process.

I have faith in Dean because Dean's new voters aren't likely caucus goers but will be showing up.

[janx]

22. I think you're right. It sounds as if they are polling people who

have gone to the caucuses in the past, and that would not include all of the people who are relatively new to the whole primary process.

I would be one such person if I lived in Iowa, and there are many, many more.

[Polemonium]

11. OK polls suck

They do suggest the race is tightening up, but the numbers are all over the map.

[Kukla]

13. I'm hoping one of the three underdogs win

I find it interesting that a majority of Iowans polled are supporting candidates who voted in favor of the IWR.

[HFishbine]

17. Scary

There was a group of Iowa voters on MSNBC's Hardball last night. One of them said he used to be for Dean until he found out Dean voted for the war. He switched to Kerry because of it.

[Kukla]

19. It's frightening that a voter would be that ill informed

I'll take anybody voting for one of the three who did vote for the war any way I can get them, though!

It would be interesting to see how a a candidate who voted in favor of the IWR would di in Iowa without two others in the field.

[mzmolly]

25. I heard that, isnt that strange. No one corrected the schlep either?

WTF? LOL

[newyawker99]

20. Hi Kukla!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Kukla]

24. Thank you!

That was very nice of you!

[goodhue]

18. thanks for posting this poll

As usual I'm focussed on Dennis who has 5% in this poll, which is better than 2 or 3% he is often at.

But the number that stands out to me is that 42% of the 607 sampled have no opinion of Dennis Kucinich. I continue in my steadfast belief that a large part of Dennis' low standing in these polls is directly related to the fact that a sizeable percentage sampled are not familiar with him. Because he gets little media coverage.