D.C.'s White Voters, Not Black, Made Difference for Dean

[chimpymustgo]

Analysis
D.C.'s White Voters, Not Black, Made Difference for Dean

By Craig Timberg
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 16, 2004; Page A05


Howard Dean built his victory in the D.C. primary on the strength of his popularity among voters in white sections of Washington and lost to Al Sharpton in predominantly black neighborhoods, an analysis of precinct results shows.


Dean touted his primary win as evidence of his appeal to black voters, but his margin of victory came almost entirely from a 10-to-1 edge over Sharpton in mostly white Ward 3 in affluent Northwest Washington. In the city's seven other wards, taken together, the two ran almost evenly.

Heavy turnout in Ward 3 helped Dean. More than 19 percent of eligible voters in Ward 3 cast a ballot, compared with a citywide average of 16 percent. The Ward 3 turnout was more than double the turnout in Southeast Washington's Ward 8, which is almost entirely African American and which gave Sharpton his best results. Sharpton beat Dean in Ward 8 by 59 percent to 24 percent.

-snip-

The Dean campaign had portrayed the nonbinding D.C. primary as a crucial test of his support among black voters, generally among the most loyal Democrats. Political analysts and Dean's rivals had questioned whether black voters would warm up to a former governor of Vermont, which has few African Americans or other minorities.


EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A21058-2004Jan15.html******

Some perspective on the DC primary.

[xultar]

1. Yup, the 60% black population in DC...doesn't have anything

to do with turnout.

We are notoriously lax when it comes down to exercising our right to vote in a GE. So, a primary, puhleez.

The white vote in DC did make the difference. The +30% Sharpton garnered is clearly all black.

IMHO

[beaconess]

5. And the 43% that Dean got was overwhelmingly white

So what's your point?

[wndycty]

2. Smoke and mirrors?

So Dean wins DC with the support of white voters and he wants to portray this victory as a crucial test showing his appeal in the Black community. . .smoke and mirrors.

[Maddy McCall]

4. Voters are smart enough to see through it, though.

[Clark4VotingRights]

61. Yes, I believe that is "the point." We must have a candidate

That earns and gets the black vote.
That walks and talks affirmative action and voting rights and...
well, listens to our African American citizens and follows up.

[WI_DEM]

67. read the article

Dean still got significant number of black votes against two black opponents. The article states he and Sharpton ran neck and neck outside of Ward 3 which Dean won overwhelmingly.

[beaconess]

69. And he got those votes mostly from white people

I read the article and studied the polling results myself and the fact is that Dean's support was concentrated in the white neighborhoods while black voters voted overwhelmingly against him. Dean lost 83 of the cities 142 precincts to Sharpton, sometimes by as large a margin as 62% to 18%. The precincts he lost are overwhelmingly black. The precincts he carried were mostly white. It's not a coincidence that Washington, D.C. is 42% white and that Dean carried 43% of the vote.

So, you can try to spin this all you want, but black voters overwhelmingly voted for candidates other than Dean.

Don't you find it interesting that Dean and his campaign aren't trying to spin the DC results the way you are? They know that Dean got his butt kicked among black voters in the DC Primary and are doing everything they can to change the subject.

[Hep]

3. Big Deal!

The fact that African Americans voted largely for Sharpton is no surprise to me. Nothing I didn't expect.

[beaconess]

6. But it's probably a surprise to you that Dean's support

was almost exclusively in the white neighborhoods and that he lost the vast majority of black precincts.

[Maddy McCall]

8. It is telling--I think it speaks volumes about information that has

been made public over the last couple of weeks, and a lack of minority appeal.

We need a candidate with a sincere concern about racial issues in the US. No way can Democrats win this vote without minority appeal.

[Hep]

15. Sooner or later, the faulty logic has got to stop

That any candidate doesn't have as much appeal as Sharpton or Braun among black voters does NOT mean they don't have ANY appeal.

Thanks.

[Maddy McCall]

17. I didn't say that and I don't believe that.

Revelations about Dean's less than stellar history in promoting diversity is what hurt him.

[Hep]

20. Wrong

nothing hurt him. He's not hurt. Dean's policies resonate in the black community. I've seen it.

[beaconess]

37. It obviously didn't resonate with the black community in DC

[WI_DEM]

68. and how did Walter Mondale and Mike Dukakis do in DC?

lost to Jesse Jackson. They still won significant black support in November elections.

[beaconess]

22. Who has said Dean has NO appeal in the black community?

Please be specific.

Of course, it doesn't speak well for Dean that black folks would rather vote for Al Sharpton than him.

[Maddy McCall]

23. It doesn't speak well for the Democratic Party

[Hep]

29. As I said before

Out of curiosity, are you african american?

I'd sure hate to see someone who isn't african american try to dismiss Al Sharpton as a great influence in the black community.

[Maddy McCall]

33. I have NEVER dismissed Sharpton.

And my ethnicity is none of your business.

[Hep]

34. You just got done dismissing sharpton

You said it's bad for the D party if Sharpton is beating Dean among black voters. So why is it bad for the party if you aren't marginalizing Sharpton's influence in the black community?

[Hep]

27. In case it isn't clear

There are no archives for this forum.

But let's put it this way. As long as I don't see the claim that Dean has no appeal to minorities, I'm willing to start over with a clean slate.

[Hep]

28. Doom and Gloom

Actually, it doesn't make a difference that black folks would rather vote for Sharpton than Dean or anyone else. I believe that to make that claim is to not understand what goes on in the black community.

After speaking with my precinct chair, who is black, and after speaking with many black leaders in my community, I LEARNED that Sharpton has a lot of influence and credibility in the black community.

I believe that any dismissal of Sharpton as an influential black leader speaks poorly for the D party.

[beaconess]

31. Oh - after talking with your precinct chair and some "black leaders"

You now know what's going on in the black community? Maybe you should have talked to them before so many Dean supporters attacked Sharpton as a racebaiting demagogue for having the temerity to question Dean's record on diversity.

[Hep]

32. WOW!

Aftertalking to my precinct chair and some black leaders I knows MORE about what's happening in my local black community. Yep.

And as a result, I'm in no way surprised that Sharpton has done well.

Did I call Sharpton a race baiting demagogue?

[beaconess]

39. I didn't say that YOU called him such

You did, however, tell him to "Piss off" adding, "I don't care if you support Dean or not, windbag." http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=111953#112137

I guess that was before you talked to black leaders in the past couple of days and learned that Sharpton has a lot of influence and credibility in the black community. Otherwise, you certainly would not have used such language since, as you now claim, "any dismissal of Sharpton as an influential black leader speaks poorly for the D party."

So, I'll be looking forward to seeing you correct any posters who dismiss Sharpton as a windbag or damagogue or racebaiter in order to be sure they don't put the Democrats in a bad light. That will certainly go a long way toward raising the civility of the discussion.

[Maddy McCall]

48. No it is I who is afraid a-you!

I'm in awe! :-)

:yourock: beaconess

[Hep]

9. Not a surprise at all

Like I said, it's exactly what I've been expecting since June.

I've been out in my community. I've talked to people. I never expected Dean to do better than Sharpton in most black communities. Particularly in the south.

It's getting the vote out in November that matters.

[Maddy McCall]

11. So do you think African Americans should have a say in choosing the Dem

candidate? Or should they just be ignored and be expected to vote for whomever emerges the winner in the primaries?

IMO, the Democratic Party BETTER involve this segment of the electorate NOW. It is patronizing to discount their vote in the primaries and then just *expect* them to vote for whomever in the general election. Not a winning strategy, IMO.

[Hep]

18. What on God's Green Earth are you talking about?

All people have the same say in choosing their dem candidates. Everyone gets one vote.

I'm not discounting their vote. They voted for Sharpton, just as I expected. And Braun. Big deal. Anyone who has spoken to black leaders in their community SHOULD expect Sharpton and Braun to have had GREAT influence in the black community.

And I don't "expect" them to do anything in the general other than vote for who they think should be president. And I work hard to demonstrate why Dean is their guy. And it's working, so mine IS a winning strategy.

[AP]

57. Black America is at the leading edge of the economy. When things get

crappy, Black America is the first to feel it. Black voters, in my opinion, having way more at stake because they're at the leading edge, have a much better ear and eye for the way a politician's talk translates to walk which translates to better opportunity.

When I listen to the PETA people, and the HRC people, or the Medical Marijuana people talk, I think to myself, I love you, but unless you're down with the ENTIRE progressive project of spreading economic, political and cultural power down and out we are all FUBAR.

So you have got to listen to the black voters. You have got to have the message that resonates with black voters. And any Democrat who runs better win the black vote because that's a sign the the candidate is on the right track. And if you're a middle class person, regardless of race, and you're looking for political, economic and cultural power to finally flow your way, you have to find the candidate who's message is resonating with black America.

What hits the black voter hard, first, is going to hit everyone else sooner or later, unless something changes, like electing the right Democrat -- and, ideally, if the candidates policies are going to work, they're going to work for Black America FIRST, but that's the part of the equation politicians haven't worked out as well as they could. So listen to the black voter. Don't try to spin the black voter.


DC isn't the best test of whose message is resonating because the voters didn't really hear from candidates other than Dean (who's getting all the national attention). However, I think one could justifiably argue that black voters have heard enough of Dean's plan for America and, in DC, it didn't resonate with them. This isn't something that should be ignored.

[ecstatic]

7. Again, its not surprising that black voters supported the black candidates

in the PRIMARIES. I myself feel that its important to let people like CMB and Al S. know that *somebody* is listening.

[beaconess]

14. Hmmm

That's not what I've been hearing up until now. What happened to all of the predictions that Howard Dean is SO popular with black folks that we're all just falling into line behind him?

[Hep]

21. WHo made that claim?

Looks like a misrepresentation of someone's argument to me.

Honestly, most of the talk of Dean's appeal to black voters has been in response to claims that he DOESN'T appeal to black voters.

I'll have to be sure to let all the black Dean supporters in my county know that DU thinks they're wrong.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hep]

30. Not only do I say it with a straight face, I'm RIGHT

I haven't touted it as evidence of Dean's popularity in the black community. The only evidence I have is what goes on in my community. I do tout it as evidence that it's wrong to claim he DOESN'T have any popularity. And I'm right about that.

So, while you call me out to show evidence of one thing, you fail to show evidence for your own claim. Odd, eh?

[poskonig]

10. This is a cheap shot.

Dean ran evenly in most wards with Sharpton. Trust me -- you're *not* going to get people to switch to your candidate by making the "Dean has problems with people of color" garbage.

We can do better than this.

[9119495]

12. Agreed. Its like posting that no other candidate got votes from Black

voters in DC. They didn't compete, but the statement is technically true. Honestly, is the originator of this threat pushing a Clark/Sharpton or Kerry/Sharpton ticket? Please. Where is the evidence in the form of votes that Dean does worse in presidential elections than other candidates in terms of the black vote? THere isn't any because he has never ran before.

Now I know why the rules message comes up every time people post.

[beaconess]

19. There's plenty of evidence - check out the DC election results

Dean did very poorly among black voters in the only presidential election so far. Of course, it's only one election, so it's not conclusive, but it has to be considered.

And, who could doubt that if Dean had done well with DC's black voters, the Dean campaign would be insisting that the DC results DO matter?

[poskonig]

25. Thanks!

I suppose Dennis Kucinich is in the KKK with the low percentage of minorities he obtained. :crazy:

[beaconess]

26. Oh, please

DK did poorly among all voters in DC and, in fact, did very well with black voters. And, of course, neither he nor his supporters have been running around touting him as the black community's savior.

[Mairead]

45. Would it be fair to say

that most White voters in that primary were affluent and establishment-connected?

If so, it would certainly explain why Dean did well and DK poorly among them.

[beaconess]

46. I think you're right

Dean's support was concentrated among white voters in the most affluent areas of DC - you know, the establishment.

[indigo32]

49. Please clarify

WHERE Dean OR his supporters have been running around claiming to be the black communitees savior. We have been defending against a rather large number of claims that he has NO appeal in the AA comminitee. Also from Al Sharptons jabs (warrented or not) in the debates. But I think you are blowing this out of proportion.

[chimpymustgo]

13. Posting an analysis of the vote is a "cheap shot"? Don't let the facts get

in the way of your "story".

Geez louise.

Sorry, but if the Dean campaign is going to trumpet this win as evidence that he can get black votes, then contradictory evidence should be considered valuable, as we choose our nominee - who will hopefully be the best candidate to take on AWOL.

[9119495]

35. But the insinuation is that Dean is

the candidate for "Whitey." Yet he got more votes than any other candidate. I was unaware the campaign was insisting he had trounced everyone else due to the support from Blacks.

[JI7]

63. yes, it's important

candidates should appeal to many voters and if they can't there is nothing wrong with finding out why and what we can do about it.

[beaconess]

16. Dean did NOT run evenly in most precincts with Sharpton

Sharpton beat Dean in 83 of the city's 142 precincts and kicked his butt in most black precincts - sometimes by margins as vast as 60% to 18%.

If it weren't for the white vote in DC, Dean would hardly have made a showing.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

36. That was the question I asked immediately after the election

The racial distribution of the vote is significant.

I don't see any way in which these results can be construed to mean that Dean has broad support among black voters. No one is saying that no black person would ever vote for him, but it looks as if Dean's support came from the white population, as I suspected. We shall have to see what happens in South Carolina.

(I'm relatively new in Minneapolis and don't have any contacts in the local African-American community yet, so I don't know what the situation is here.)

[candy331]

38. Give me a break this post is ludicrous.

What would have been said if blacks had voted for a white candidate when they had the opportunity to vote for a black candidate? A different headline from the media of course but none the less a headline. Surely you know that Al would have gotten high votes from blacks no matter who the white candidate was. There was an alternative as (Al himself says) on the ballet and blacks used it. The mayor of Philadelphia was recently reelected by a large turnout of blacks so again if blacks have alternative(black candidate) they will vote for them.

[beaconess]

42. You're saying that when given a choice between a white candidate and

a black candidate, black voters will always pick the black candidate, regardless of the issues?

Does the same bias hold true for white voters? Will white voters, when choosing between a white a black candidate, always pick the white candidate?

[AP]

59. Tavis Smiley, if memory serves, did a story about this a while ago.

I could be totally wrong, but I think he did a story about black voters in several races picking white candidates over black candidates because it was clear to everyone that the black candidate was more conservative. (I think one was in FL? Tampa maybe?)

There's nothing that focusses one's full faculties on picking the best candidate like actually having something huge at stake, as most black people do on election day.

[corporatewhore]

47. give me a break !!!

so does that mean between a white and a black cannidate a white person will always vote for a white cannidate regardless of issues?!!

[beaconess]

52. That seems to be the case

when black people don't flock to Howard Dean. The only possible explanation for that would be that he's the victim of racism.

Old CW: Black voters know that Howard Dean is their best possible hope.

New CW: Black voters are too stupid and racist to know that Howard Dean is their best possible hope.

[corporatewhore]

53. You summed it perfectly

who do those black people think they are not voting for their white savior

[MidwestMomma]

54. African Americans vote based on issues

And to state any differently is insulting. If people want to say that African Americans voted for Al Sharpton because they agree with his stand on the issues more than they agree with another candidates, that's different. But to imply Sharpton got more AA votes and that the mayor of Philedelphia won just because they share a skin color with the voters shows a lack of understanding that unfortunately seems to be pretty prevalent.

It reminds me of when I was at the Harkin Steak fry and when Carol Mosley Braun showed up, a white women behind me felt the need to point out to the black women next to her that CMB had arrived. The implication being that Carol was 'their' candidate. It seemed patronizing to me and the women behind me didn't appreciate the 'help' either.

Thanks for listening. (Hope I didn't break any rules.)

[corporatewhore]

55. I am a woman and didnt want to vote for cmb before she dropped out

[beaconess]

56. That's different

[bearfartinthewoods]

90. and if CMB would have dropped out before the DC primary

dean would have lost....period.

wasn't he 'lucky' she stuck it out for a couple more days.

[beaconess]

94. Good point

Isn't it interesting that some of the same people who have been bragging about how popular Dr. Dean is in the black community, pointing to his endorsements from CBC members as proof of strong support among African American voters, are now trying to spin his dismal performance in the DC primary as further proof of his great appeal? How many times have we been treated to boasts about how Dr. Dean was racking up those CBC endorsements, more than any other candidate? But when it came down to a vote, it turned out that black voters in D.C. overwhelmingly voted for two other candidates, who, between them, had a grand total of ZERO CBC endorsements.

[mzmolly]

40. And Sharpton gained the support of the African American Community

what does that mean? :freak: Did you expect Dean to pull votes from Sharpton from the AA community?

Who do you support CMG? I keep asking but I don't get an answer, surely you've made a decision by now? :shrug:

[beaconess]

44. Isn't this a different spin than we were getting just a couple of days ago

Just a few days ago, we were hearing that support for Dean was so strong in the black community and that Sharpton was irrelevant. Now that Dean made a poor showing among blacks in the DC primary, the new spin is that he couldn't possibly be expected to compete with Al Sharpton.

Interesting, but not very convincing.

[w4rma]

41. Ah, the Dean is a racist meme. Baseless. (n/t)

[beaconess]

43. Oh, please

Pointing out that Dean did not get much black support in the DC Primary equates with calling him a racist?

[w4rma]

50. He did better than everybody among black folks, except Sharpton. (n/t)

[beaconess]

51. LOL

The bar has gotten much lower in the past couple of days, hasn't it?

[elperromagico]

58. Wasn't the turnout something like 8%?

Of course, if the past is any indicator, the Dem candidate will carry DC by a huuuuuge margin in '04.

[beaconess]

60. 16% n/t

[candy331]

62. Yes I am saying blacks flocked to the polls in

Philadelphia to support the mayor and the issue was about race whether you accept it or not. It could have been on political issues but the Fed wiretap changed that. Blacks saw it as an assault on a black candidate. Yes blacks vote on issues and blacks also vote on race, just as whites vote on issues and whites vote on race, if this was not so the south would not be a problem for Democrats now would it? Of course most times both rise above race and vote on the issues only, but that does not dispute the former.

[stickdog]

64. It's great that Sharpton can motivate such support in a meaningless vote!

[maddezmom]

65. if it's so "meaningless"

why did Dean campaign there?

[beaconess]

70. Dean didn't think it was meaningless

at least he didn't until after he showed so poorly.

[WI_DEM]

66. and your point is what?

If you read the article, yes, Dean did best among white voters--that is no surprise. But against two African-American opponents in a highly African-American voting district Dean did surprisingly well. The article says that outside Ward 3 the largely white ward which Dean won overwhelmingly that he and Sharpton ran virutally neck and neck--so this means that Dean still got significant African-American votes.

Keep in mind, too that in '84 and '88 when Jesse Jackson ran neither Walter Mondale ('84) nor Mike Dukakis ('88) was able to beat him in DC.

[beaconess]

71. No - Dean did NOT get significant black support

You can claim that all you want, but that's just not true, as I've detailed in previous posts.

[WI_DEM]

72. you didn't prove anything

except that Dean didn't win the black vote. Sharpton did which was expected. Dean got more African-American votes than Braun. As the article says outside of the 3rd Ward which was overwhelmingly for Dean, he and Sharpton basically ran neck-neck while Dean didn't win majority black support he did quite well. He did what Mondale and Dukakis couldn't do which is win the DC primary against African-American opposition. Even (as the article says) in Sharpton's best war (predominately black and poor) Dean still got a quarter of the vote.

Howard Dean did quite well in DC among minority voters.

According to the article referenced for this thread these are DC predominately African-American wards in DC: ward 4,5,7,8

In Ward 4 20% turnout--Sharpton beat Dean 41-38 with 9% for Braun
In Ward 5 with 15% turnout Sharpton beat Dean 51-28 and 13% for Braun
In Ward 7 with 15% turnout Sharpton beat Dean 54-25 with 14% for Braun.
In Ward 8 with 10% turnout Sharpton beat Dean 55-23 with 14% for Braun.

No one has said that Dean won the African-American vote but as these vote totals indicate in wards which are predominately African-American Dean got a significant minority vote against two minority candiates and in predominately african-american wards ran second only to Sharpton.

http://blog.letsfreedc.org

[beaconess]

79. But what you didn't say -

In Ward 4:

Sharpton 41%
Dean 38%
Braun 12%

So, two other black candidates in the race got 53% of the vote to Dean's 38%. Not close. It also means that 62% of the ward's voters preferrd someone else to Dean. Hardly evidence of a groundswell of support in the black community.

Here's more - Sharpton beat Dean in 15 of the 20 precincts in Ward 4, an upper middle-class black area of Washington; in most of those precincts, Sharpton's margin of victory was significant - upwards of 2-1. Factoring in the votes for Braun, Dean lost most of these precincts by large margins.

Of the five precincts in Ward 4 that Dean carried, he won three by close margins. In only two did his vote total exceed the combined votes for Sharpton and Braun - and, interestingly, Kucinich made surprisingly stronger showings in these two precints, beating both Sharpton and Moseley Braun in one.

As for the fact that Dean got a quarter of the vote in other predominantly black wards, given that he and Kucinich were the only other major candidates in the race, this doesn't say much. Certainly, had Kerry or Edwards or Clark or even Lieberman been in the race, they would have cut into the vote that Dean got while running with so little competition.

So, bottom line - AGAIN - is that Howard Dean's victory in DC did NOT come as a result of any strong support in the African American community. Doesn't mean he's a racist, doesn't mean that he has no black support, doesn't mean that black people wouldn't vote for him in the general election if he's the nominee. But it does mean that it's time to stop touting him as the candidate "most likely to succeed" among black voters.



http://www.dcboee.org/information/elec_2004/pres_primary_2004_results.shtm

[WI_DEM]

92. that Dean got a third of the black vote

versus two black opponents is very good and running second in all black wards is pretty darn impressive. Your trying to spin it that just because Dean didn't outright win the black vote in DC he is weak with minorities--that isn't the case at all. African-American voters, like other minority groups, were proud to have representatives of their race running in the primary--and well known national figures--Al Sharpton and Carol Mosley Braun--both of whom have performed well in the debates. Why wouldn't they get a significant number of minority votes? The story is that Dean did as well as he did. Now you tell us which other candidate would have beaten Sharpton and Mosley Braun in DC in the minority community--and please have something other than opinion to back it up.

[dsc]

73. I am always suspicious when analysis like these lack basic numbers

So I went looking. Here is what I found.

Dean won ward 3 3763 to 357, which was 67.2% to 6.4% over Sharpton. Sharpton actually came in fourth there. Margin 3,406 votes.

Dean won the primary as a whole 17,736 to 14,248 margin 3,488 votes. Yep, he beat Sharpton in those other 7 wards by 82 votes. Now, why oh why didn't they tell you this? Did they not have room in the article? Or did they pull a fast one. They were careful to use weasel words such as almost entirely but they wanted you to think Dean lost those other seven wards. He didn't.

The fact is that if ward 3 is as white as they say it is then the rest of DC is even more African American than the 60% figure in the article. And Dean won in the rest of DC.

But, let's look at one more thing. Here is the percentage of population in DC.

Blacks account for 60 percent the city's residents, and whites make up 31 percent, according to the 2000 Census. But in recent years political analysts have reported a surge in white turnout and a decline in voting among African Americans.

If we let ward 3 stand in for the percents that Dean got amongst white voters as well as Sharpton's total amongst whites and assume that the fact whites are more likely to be Republican cancels out this surge we see the following.

The 31% of DC which is white provided 67% of 31% of his votes. That comes to 20.77% rounds to 21%. Note that Dean got 43% of the vote. That leaves 22% for him to have gotten from blacks. That comes to 37% (actually 36.67%) when one divides by 60%.

Conversely Sharpton got only 34% of the total vote. Sharpton got 31% of 6.2% of his votes from whites which is 1.9% round to 2%. He got 32% from blacks which when divided by 60% translates to 53%. That is a solid victory for Sharpton, but I will say here and now if Sharpton is still in the race in SC he will replicate that support.

Dean got over 1 out of 3 votes from blacks against two black candidates. Yes, if only blacks had voted Sharpton would likely have won. Had these people done their jobs in this analysis we would have a better idea. Among other things it would have been nice to see just how white ward 3 really is. The blacker that ward is the better Dean did amongst blacks.

We should always beware of analysis which leave out salient facts. They often are purposely deceptive.

[beaconess]

81. Interesting spin

The fact that when given the choice of Howard Dean and Al Sharpton, fewer than one in three blacks voted for Dean is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Dean in the black community.

I'm not raising any of these points to trash Dean. If he ends up getting the nomination, I want him to crush Bush. But in order to do that, he's got to energize the base, a significant portion of which is black. And try as you might to argue otherwise, black folks just aren't feeling Dean. The DC primary reinforced that.

Rather than constantly try to spin the DC results as some kind of proof that Dean is doing just fine with black folks or attack anyone who feels otherwise as having sour grapes, you guys need to take a hard look at his campaign and why it's not connecting better with black voters and then do what it takes to correct this deficiency. Failure to do this will result in some serious problems down the line for Dean, should he be the nominee.

[dsc]

82. fancy that

not one of my figures challenged by you. And you have the gall to call me a spinner.

[beaconess]

83. I have already countered your "spin" in detail

My point was not to counter your figures - an obviously futile gesture given your outcome determinative approach - but to show you that, even if your assumptions are correct, it shows that your candidate needs to do a lot more to generate the kind of support that you seem to think he already has. Dean could have failed to get a single black vote and, given your approach, that would have been proof that blacks were just too overcome with emotion at the mere thought of having Dean as president, that they all took to their beds and couldn't get out to vote that day.

This kind of outright dismissal of anyone who doesn't agree that Howard Dean is a perfect candidate, who can do no wrong and needs no correction, and couldn't POSSIBLY benefit from any advice, is one of the reasons that so many people are taking a second look at him and not liking what they're seeing.

And, regardless of your "spin" - and yes, it IS spin - if you think that the results of Tuesday's primary don't indicate that Dean has some real work to do to generate the kind of black support he's claiming to already have, you are not doing him ANY favors.

[dsc]

84. If you are going to claim I cooked the books

then back it up. Yes, I am asking you to actually back up a charge (horror of horrors). The first part is from the very same website you used. And it shows that Dean won the other 7 wards in total by 88 votes. The other part is admittedly guesswork. But I didn't write, nor did I chose to site, an article which purported to be an analysis without providing the answers to such simple questions as what percentage of whites actually live in ward 3. BTW, I actually found that figure, or more acturately the figure before the current redistricting. The ward is 89% white and 4% black. That translates to Dean getting, at most, 76% of the white vote in that ward. That is assuming he got nothing but white votes.

Using his 43% total showing, and the 60% to 31% breakdown cited in the article, Dean now gets 23% of his 43% showing from whites and 20% from everyone else. That makes about 1 out of 3 black votes. He beat one black candidate CMB. If Sharpton got not one white vote, which is a ludricrious notion, he got 57% of the black vote. Yes, he did beat Dean but I will bet you money he will beat Edwards in SC by at least this margin if he is still in the race.

[beaconess]

85. Fine - convince yourself that the DC Primary proves Dean is doing great

in the black community. Keep attacking anyone who suggests otherwise and ignore what they're saying because it's not consistent with the notion that Dean can do no wrong.

Not my problem.

[dsc]

86. Where have I attacked you?

Yes, I want a citation of the attack or a retraction of yours. I am sick to death of people claiming I am some sort of deluded liar and refusing to back it up. You claim I cooked the books. You claim I skewed my analyis. You need to either a back that up or b admit you can't.

Yes, I think for any white candidate to get 1 out of 3 blacks to vote for him or her over the Rev Sharpton and the first black female US Senator is doing just fine.

[beaconess]

87. Speaking of backing up a claim

when did I claim that you "cooked the books" or "skewed" your analysis?

While I don't think that you are a deluded liar, I do think that your continued belief that getting 25% percent of the black vote when his only opposition is Al Sharpton, Carol Moseley Braun, Dennis Kucinich and Vermin Supreme is proof that he is "doing just fine" among African American voters is so out of touch with political reality that it calls into question your understanding of electoral politics.

And, if Howard Dean and his campaign read these the results the way you do, it certainly indicates that his touted politican skills are considerably less keen than he would have us think.

[dsc]

91. Three things

One you accused me of engaging in results based analysis which is academic speak for cooking the books.

Second, the actual number is 33%.

Three, Here is a link to a SC poll, from Dec 13-15.

www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/SC031216DemPrimary.pdf

Poll is from Survey USA


It shows Dean at 21 among SC blacks to 24 for Sharpton with CMB at 5.

[ecstatic]

74. Again, not all black voters live in "predominantly black" areas

Many of the "white precincts" probably had their fair share of black voters.

[beaconess]

76. You don't know much about DC, do you?

The predominantly white areas in which Dean did very well, have VERY few blacks.

Kind of like Vermont...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

75. Looks like he got a quarter of the black vote against 2 black candidates.

Impressive.

[dsc]

77. actually over a third

see post 73

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

78. I was rounding down. Didn't want to overstate it

in case my math skills were off. The story says that in the heaviest black district, Sharpton beat Dean by a margin near 3-1. That's 25+%.


How this can be spun as bad news for Dean....:shrug:



Btw, excellent post and analysis. I had missed it.

[beaconess]

80. With no competition from any other major candidate

not so impressive.

[SangamonTaylor]

88. Dean divide

Well, in my opinion the Dean campaign faces what I consider the 'Dean Divide'.

His campaign took off on the internet which typically has mostly affluent white people (see Digital Divide).

However, what made me notice was when Dean came here to Houston. He spoke at the Miller Auditorium which is within walking distance of my neighborhood. I live in a predominantly black neighborhood (myself, two roommates and a lawyer down the street being the only white people on the block). The thing that got me was that the only way I knew about the Dean rally was flyers put up at my law school. There, right within walking distance were several black communities. However, when I walked to the rally, I noticed that generally speaking, everyone there was white and youngish.

I was really a bit disturbed, and it put me off of the Dean campaign for a while. The campaign has done wonders with opening channels to those with the internet; however, from my experience it didn't have any representation with the Houston black community (which is very large and influential)

[babzilla]

89. makes me wonder why the "other major candidates"

couldn't be bothered to put their names on the ballot.

Especially since all of them but Clark live in D.C. for most of the year.
:shrug:

[beaconess]

93. Because this is not a real primary

This was merely a beauty contest. The real DC Primary is in May.

The other candidates had said this all along and downplayed the importance of this non-binding primary. However, the Dean campaign insisted that it did count and that the other candidates were afraid to put their names on the ballot because they were afraid that Dean would defeat them all handily.

However, now that it is clear that Dean's support in the African American community is so shallow that black voters would rather vote for Sharpton and Braun than him, two candidates that the Dean campaign never took seriously, they are singing a different tune, claiming that the primary results really don't mean anything.

But I bet they would have meant something if Dean had done better.

[babzilla]

96. the D.C. primary was moved up from May

to try to send a message that D.C. should count.

This was the one and only primary vote D.C. will conduct, there will not be another primary vote in May.

There will however be a caucus in February to choose the delegates to the convention. I'm sure the remaining candidates will all of a sudden find D.C. as meaningful at that point.

The reason why the other candidates didn't get on the ballot in the primary is because the DNC had a problem with D.C. trying to make a statement.

City leaders moved the primary up from May to call attention to the city's lack of voting rights for its representative in Congress. The Democratic Party insisted that the vote be nonbinding in order to protect the New Hampshire primary's standing as the first of the season.

Caucuses will be held in the district's eight wards on Feb. 14 to choose delegates to the party convention in July.

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/0104/15dc.html

[beaconess]

97. This primary did not count since it did not select delegates

It was, according to the DC Democratic Party, an "Advisory Primary." Actual delegate selection for DC will take place in March and all of the candidates intend to campaign for delegates in that process.

The DNC did NOT have a problem with DC trying to make a statement (the DNC strongly supports voting rights for DC). They did have a problem with DC disrupting the primary process that was already in place.

[babzilla]

98. I am aware that the primary did not select delegates

that is why I included this in my post:

There will however be a caucus in February to choose the delegates to the convention.

I must disagree with your statement here:

The DNC did NOT have a problem with DC trying to make a statement (the DNC strongly supports voting rights for DC). They did have a problem with DC disrupting the primary process that was already in place.

The DNC did have a problem with D.C. making a statement.

The D.C. Democratic party leadership's statement was moving the primary vote up which the DNC interpreted as disrupting the primary process, hence the problem.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

95. What, pray tell, would have impressed you?

100% support?


:shrug:

[Moderator]

99. chimpymustgo

Per DU copyright rules
please post only four
paragraphs from the
news source.


Thank you

DU Moderator