Prediction, Shocking Upset in Iowa

[ShaneGR]

John Edwards will win Iowa. Bank it.

[stopbush]

1. I wouldn't bank on it, but I made a similar prediction earlier this week.

Ie: if Dean doesn't win, he will lose in a squeaker to Edwards.

[Sir_Shrek]

2. I'm still with...

..Gephardt winning Iowa.

[liberalhistorian]

3. What are you basing

that on? Not being snotty at all, I'm genuinely curious. What do the polls currently say?

[bluestateguy]

4. I don't think Edwards has the ground organization

I still say Dean by a few points. He has the footsoldiers who will literally walk through feet of snow to vote for him.

[msanger]

6. and carry someone on their back.

I think most dean supporters would not only walk through feet of snow for him (actually is it for "us") but would carry someone on their back as well.

I suspect most Clark supporters would do the same.

[jadesfire]

12. his foot soldiers are not residents of Iowa

i agree that the ground forces he has amassed in Iowa are formidable and would go to extreme lengths to elect their candidate (as many would do for each of the candidates). However, the most diehard of his troops are not residents of Iowa and can't caucus. It doesn't matter what they will do, it matters how strongly they have convinced the people of Iowa. If this downward trend continues, it won't matter...

[leyton]

5. Edwards and Kerry are the real winners.

They have generated momentum and will probably exceed expectations, especially if they beat Gephardt. Gephardt is losing steam, going by recent polls, and if he doesn't win Iowa I think it's over. As for Dean - he could definitely win Iowa but he looks to be coming out battered.

What will New Hampshire bring? There isn't nearly as much time for Dean and Edwards and Kerry and Clark to duke it out there...

[Southsideirish]

8. Oh Lawd! Already the spinning has begun and its not even Monday.

I can see it all now - the "winner" (Dean or Gep) will be the "loser" and the "losers" will be the "winners."
Does this sound familiar to those of you who followed the Gore and Bush debates in 2000? This time we are "hip" to that "bulljive." Sheesh!!!!

[leyton]

16. That's how the game is played.

If you ask me, Bush won on just that - beating low expectations, particularly in regards to his intelligence.

Expectations is part of the game. It may not be the most straightforward thing, but it's good politics to set the expectations lower than you expect. That's how momentum is generated, that's what makes people give you a second look.

[curse10]

11. I agree

this jump in the polls can only mean good things. I'm really happy for both Kerry and Edwards :-)

[Kahuna]

7. I can almost feel it. Because voters will look for a compromise candidate

that might put Edwards over.

[AP]

9. I want it, but I don't feel it ... yet.

What makes you feel it?

[jburton]

10. Sharpton will not win.

That is my prediction. Everything in the "four way" is impossible to predict, IMHO.

[kayleybeth]

13. I still think Dean will win Iowa.

As much as I would love to see an Edwards upset, I will be very surprised if Dean doesn't win Iowa. His strong organization on the ground definitely gives him the edge, IMO.

[Padraig18]

14. nah--- Dean, Kerry and Edwards

Gep will be 4th, or tied for 3rd.

Bye, Dick! :hi:

[spooky3]

15. I'd like that but think he'll come in third

but that is a good showing if it is a reasonably close third. I hope his organization and resources improve once South Carolina hits. I think he has no chance in New Hampshire because so many of his rivals are better known there and he has to meet and greet to get his message across. So Iowa and SC are good tests for him.

[anti-bush]

17. Are we talking % of delegates?

I think Edwards can win the % of delegates without winning the total# of supporters. Is this what we're talking about?

And where's the link to the prediction contest held last week. I think my prediction is somewhere exactly what the polls are showing right now...

[bigwillq]

18. Dean will still win in Iowa

I think Kerry 2nd then Gep. or Edwards (they might flip slots)

[jenk]

19. not shocking when you take a look at Edwards

he's our perfect candidate, and this meteoric rise has been long overdue. He's the candidate the GOP fears most.

[mlawson]

20. He is the one they fear the most.

I will not say, flatly, that Edwards will win Iowa in an upset (though I suspect he might), but I WILL say, emphatically that the repukes fear him the most!! He has done the 'impossible' nearly all of his life.

[DjTj]

21. Edwards can win Iowa without winning the Caucuses

A strong showing will help Edwards more than any other candidate and will be a "win" regardless of who wins the Caucus.

[Closer]

22. Dean will win by at least 15

Edwards will come in second with Gephardt close behind.

Bank it.

[arewethereyet]

23. not a shock in my estimation

and given the way the others have campaigned, somewhat likely.