Iowa Undecideds begin deciding, Kerry surges to 5 pt. lead... Edwards up

[ShaneGR]

You know, I'm not a Kerry guy but I do admire his (And Edwards) tenacity in this race. They never quit.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3977267/

(snip)
DES MOINES, Iowa - The latest polling data from Iowa suggest Monday's key Democratic presidential caucus has been transformed from a two-way battle between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt for first place into an electoral free-for-all between four candidates.

The most ground has been made by John Kerry, who, according to Friday's Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll, has opened up a five-point lead over his three tightly bunched rivals. John Edwards also has moved strongly into contention, according to the data.

[Alex146]

1. A 5 point surge seems weird

and Edwards is now tied with Gep?

Strange thigns are happining.

[ShaneGR]

5. I've been saying for months that the undecided #'s were huge

Seriously, a month ago it was something like 30% undecided. That's a massive figure.

[sandnsea]

2. Relentless

No Surrender. Get used to it. :-)

[Sir_Shrek]

3. I think these are the mainstream Dems...

...coming out now.

[Jerseycoa]

13. That's right

The real Democratic base.

[leyton]

4. Yup

I'm happy, being an Edwards supporter.

Congrats to Kerry supporters as well, he ain't my first choice but he would probably make the best president of the bunch. I've said this other places but his whole aura really appeals to me, that whole Bostonian thing.

[cthrumatrix]

6. it seems so orchestrated ---media driven ---poll driven --- who drove it?

and don't say Kerry...

[ShaneGR]

7. The voters did

They are speaking.

[blm]

14. ALL of last year's proDean press was orchestrated

and the suppression of important stories for Kerry, Edwards and Kucinich was obvious.

Why was the press complicit in promoting Dean as the antiwar liberal when he was neither antiwar or liberal?

Why did the corporate media give Dean a press plane in June, but hold back any negative stories until last month?

Why did the media give Dean FIVE national covers since July while all the other candidates received NONE?

[TexasSissy]

8. I admire them, too. Glad to see something finally happening

for them. But since I'm a Clark supporter, I don't want TOO much to happen for them.

In any case, many of us suspected all along that this would be close and tough and not the cakewalk for the media's anointed front runner. Dean may still win, but it won't be as easy and clear as some thought it would be. Remember people repeatedly warning that no votes had been cast yet?

But I've seen Kerry and Edwards on C-Span in IA, and I'm glad to know that Iowans were as impressed as I was. You can tell far more by speeches & Q&A than by the debates.

(but Clark's the best! Just had to throw that in there.)

[oasis]

9. Iowans are expressing their displeasure with candidates who diss them.

They reward hard work and dedication to the Democratic party.

[Nicholas_J]

10. As of yesterday

Zogby's polls since Monday


the last 4 days:

Kerry:

%

1//12 - 17 %

1/13 - 21 %

1/14 - 22 %

1/15 - 24 %

Dean:


1/12 - 28 %

1/13 - 24 %

1/14 - 21 %

1/15 - 19 %


Gephardt:

1/ 12 23 %


1/13 21 %

1/14 21 %

1/15 19 %

Edwards:


1//12 - 14 %

1/13 - 15 %

1/14 - 17 %

1/15 - 17 %

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=781


Right now, Deans momentum is down at twice the daily rate as the other candidates are going up.

Note, within the statistical parameters of this poll, right now Edwards is running EVEN with Dean and Edwards. Edwards at this point could overtake Dean and have Dean in 4th place with Edwards taking 3rd in Iowa at lease, and perhaps even 2nd, If Edwards keeps moving up as he has been, because Gephardt has dropped to 19 percent as well.

As of yesterday, Kerry is statistically in first place his 24 percent being more than 4.5 percent over Dean and Gephardts 19 percent. with Gephardt and Dean tied for 2nd, and statistically tied for 2nd with John Edwards, within the polls MoE. Edwards now at 17 percent is in the running for 2nd place with Dean and Gephardt. Of these three candidates only Edwards is showing forward momentum, and out of the top 4 Kerry and Edwards are rising in polls for the caucus, while Dean and Gephardt have been declining, with Dena falling 2 or 3 points a day, Gephardt dropping a bit more slowly.

This is not unusual for Iowa, as in every presidential campaign period since 1972, there were major reversals in the expected nominations that occured during the last week of the campaign in which the front runner at the beginning of each of those years eneded up losing to someone who was much further behind earlier in the campaign. A well known occurance the Iowa Caucuses is that one sees 75 percent of the supporters of the frontrunners change that support in the last week of the campign for the nomination.

[TacticalPeek]

11. In preparation for Mon nite interested researchers are invited

to amass links to cast-iron predictions made since last fall by various wise-ass pundits who know so much more than everyone else that their heads burst into flame when left untended.

Joe Klein springs immediately to mind, but they are legion.

[Jerseycoa]

12. The cream rises, don't it? nt

[bigwillq]

15. I think the polls are going to change often through the weekend

It's a toss up until the voters decide but I do think Kerry and Edwards have the best momentum regardless of what the polls say. There face in the media is improving as well. That says a lot to me whether it's planned or not.