CNN: Dean on top in Iowa

[Melodybe]

I just saw it scroll across the bottom on CNN. Dean, Kerry, Geppy, and Edwards in that order. I think that with the massive ground work we will do fine in Iowa. Then again if we win Iowa the media will surely point out the Iowa curse with Carter and Kennedy being the only two to go onto the White House. God it seems like we can't win for winning these days.

[Egnever]

1. Saw that too

And was suprised by CMT's post.

I dont think the media has a clue of whats really going on in Iowa to tell you the truth. The Grassroots is there in force thousands of people on the ground working for Dean in the next few days is not only impressive but sure to be effective.

Polls might work in a situation where people just show up and vote but a caucus is a whole different animal. I think we will see the pundits eating thier hats come monday.

[cthrumatrix]

14. well I just posted that God shared this would happen -- wow

he/she wasn't kidding...

[Raya]

2. The Corporate Media will try to Boost Dean to the end. Notice CNN

Inside politics gave coverage to Dean, Edwards and Trippi! Hardly any more than a comment on Kerry.

[Snivi Yllom]

7. Kerry now getting Drudged

I guess its a badge of honor this week. First Dean, then Clark and now Kerry are getting smeared by Matt Sludge.

[pasadenaboy]

21. That's why they do nothing

but publish negative stories about him, because they want him to win.

[jsw_81]

3. I'm still certain that Dean will be the nominee

Sure, he might win a close victory in Iowa, but that's astonishing when you consider that he was a nobody with no support and no money only one year ago. Then Dean will almost certainly win New Hampshire, but again we'll hear a bunch of nonsense about how his win wasn't "convincing" or impressive. Then we'll get to the real primaries and caucuses: California, New York, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Washington. Dean will win at least five of those six, and maybe all six on his way to winning the nomination.

[mastein]

4. Weather

I hear turnout will be high which should favor Dean, but with the possibility of sub 0 temps by cacus time that may favor Gep.

[Melodybe]

8. apparently the other camps are hoping for good weather b/c Dean

supporters are so dedicated. I hope for a sunny day, so that everyone who wants to participate can.

Go dems!

[TLM]

5. Yeah, but it has been like that all along...

So this is nothing new.

Remember where we started out as just a footnote in this campaign?

Look where we are now?


Even if Dean only takes a close 2nd in Iowa, he is still in a good position to win the primary. Whereas a win in Iowa could actually hurt Kerry in the long run because he just doesn't have the money at this point for a drawn out fight.

Dean has the slowest burn rate of any of these guys running. Kerry and Gephardt are paying out the nose for a few points in the polls. That's not a tactic they can sustain.


And as I recall didn't Clinton lose in both the NH and Iowa primaries?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Sounds like that's the KCCI/Research 2000 poll

Out of 607 Iowa Democrats who say they're likely to attend their caucus, the former Vermont governor has support from 22 percent of Democratic caucus voters – that is down 7 percent from a KCCI poll taken just one week ago.

Sen. John Kerry is vaulted into second place behind Dean at 21 percent. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt has fallen to third. North Carolina Senator John Edwards rocketed up ten points since last week, to tie Gephardt at 18 percent.

In one week, Dean lost his cushion for a win, and Edwards support jumped 10 percent. With a 4 percent margin of error, the Iowa caucus has become a four-way race.

“We may see some buyer's remorse at the moment in Dean supporters, concerned about whether he has the temperament to be a good president,” said KCCI political analyst Dennis Goldford.

Edwards said he isn’t surprised by the jump in his support.

"I don't know how much faith to put in (the poll numbers), but they seem to be consistent with what I'm seeing on the ground and consistent with all these calls we're getting into our office every day," Edwards told NewsChannel 8.

With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992 – when he ran against Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin -- no candidate has ever finished below third in the Iowa caucus and gone on to win their party’s nomination.

How Was The Poll Conducted?
The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from Jan. 12 through Jan. 14, 2004.
http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2768802/detail.html

[Raya]

9. CNN even REFUSES to give Kerry "Play of the Week"

[edzontar]

10. The best would be if Dean and Kerry are one and two....

Then we are rid of the whole pointless Gephardt candidacy.

Then Kerry and Dean go to NH to battle with Clark.


This would be a show worth watching..and whoever wins that would probably deserve to be the nominee.

I hope Kerry, in particular, takes a bite out of the relatively shallow Clark and becomes the preferred candidate for the defense-and-military oriented crowd.

He has earned it, IMHO.

[mzmolly]

11. Ditto.

:hi:

[sandnsea]

12. MSNBC still announcing Kerry ahead

Funny, isn't it. Doesn't matter to me really, I know it's going to be a tough finish.

[the populist]

15. That's what I thought.

I think there's some mutual self-deluding going on here. :rollseyes

[the populist]

13. That's because

CNN has had a slanted coverage of this campaign sine July. And anyway I could have sworn that I saw on CNN that Kerry wa still in the lead.

How in the heck can Dean be on top if neither Gallup nor Zogby have released today's polls yet? Hmmmmmmm.

I hope Gephardt wins. It will mean that the will in the working class has power of American politics.

Dean's campaign has gotten stale, to me at least, and I think that will be reflected on Monday.

[cthrumatrix]

16. and Dean isn't for the working class..? where did that come from?

never mind...let's just see how all goes on Monday

[Feanorcurufinwe]

17. Zogby is out, Kerry up by 5 - that's greater than the moe, folks.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=781

I'm pretty sure the results the thread starter saw on the crawl are from the KCCI/Research 2000 poll. See post #6.


But really when it's this close, all the polls mean is -- it's close!

[jsw_81]

18. Stale?

Dick Gephardt has been running for president since 1986. Now THAT is a stale campaign!

[the populist]

20. And the immediacy of worker's issues has

been getting stronger. It's not stale.

Dean's success seems to have either been
1) a fad.
2) a product of CNN's unfair coverage of him via the other candidates that has passed its expiration date

I think it's the latter. Dean gets the same favorable treatment with respect to the other 7 candidates that Bush gets when non-election news are presented. Hmmmmmmm.

[sandnsea]

25. I understand what you're saying

I absolutely love that about Gephardt. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that his heart and soul is right there with working people.

But please know, John Kerry cares about working people and famillies too. He just sees things in a little different way than Dick Gephardt. I think he believes that it's time for America to look around the world and understand we've got to admit we're part of it and accept that we're going to have to constantly change to compete. It's like Teresa Kerry said today about cars. It's just ridiculous that America refuses to build the kinds of small cars that fit on the small roads that the entire rest of the world needs. We've got to look outside our country and meet the needs of the world. That's the difference between Kerry and Gephardt.

[PassingFair]

19. Oh my!

I just don't know what to think without a FOX "pollster" Round Table and Peggy Noonan's insightful political commentary!

DEAN WILL KICK BUTT!

[threemilemind]

22. Iowa doesn't mean that much imo

[cthrumatrix]

23. I'm a Dean supporter but I did see where many times the Iowa winner

lost the next several states...it's a long run ...we all know that...we just wnat to see results and move on

[yellowcanine]

24. 6 months ago Gephart was odds-on favorite to win Iowa

Any win by Dean, no matter how tiny - and if his organization comes through it might be huge, certifies him as the undisputable frontrunner and practically knocks Gephart out of the race (particularly if he is a distant third). Iowa should be the ideal place for Dean's organization to come through, there is really no way the polls can capture the strength of that factor.

[mzmolly]

26. It's a dead heat ... that's all there is to it.

We all have to await the real results. :)