I predict a blowout in Iowa

[Egnever]

You heard it here first folks.

I predict dean takes Iowa by as much as 40% of the vote. The polls of past likely voters don't even begin to address the people Dean has brought into his camp that have never participated before nor does it take into account the thousands of Dean supporters from out of state on the ground in Iowa working to get out his vote.

I cant wait for Monday to see what happens but if Dean doesn't win in a landslide I will be very surprised.

[mastein]

1. Agreed,

but, I think the race has gotten closer, also, don't count out the undecided/none that is allowed at the caucus vote as well.

[cthrumatrix]

23. yep...God just told me...the Dr. is the choice ...this media stuff is

really pissing off Jesus too.

[cobber91]

41. Jesus votes

and he doesn't vote Republican!

I doubt it will be a blow out...4 people have a legit shot right now...unfortunately only two of them have any type of appeal.

[Fenris]

2. Did God tell you that? Pat, is that you?

He tells people about blowouts a lot. But He's really such a talker.

[Egnever]

11. Nope

Just my personal opinion. what will you say when I end up being right?

That I am miss cleo?

[Bucky]

21. Let's represent this mathmatically

Pat Robertson Miss Cleo

[Egnever]

26. So I will be both?

Hah a pat robertson miss cleo love child!

My the images that brings to mind.


Meanwhile I bookmark this thread in anticipatiuon of monday we can revisit it then and see who ends up being right.

[Bucky]

46. Ugh, that is one Photoshop challenge I do NOT wanna see

[kstewart33]

3. A big surprise forthcoming

Dean will most likely win, but it will be no landslide. Kerry and Edwards are surging.

[Democrats unite]

4. You have to bring people from out of State?

God help me I having flashbacks of Florida!

The best man will Win Iowa, We just don't know yet if that is Kerry, Edwards or Gephart.

[mopinko]

7. that's not what he said

"brought in" to the process that have never participated before. not smuggled in from out of state. and if this is a trend that continues, (in spite of the thrashing of the whore media) it will really screw up bushco's plans. how will they know where the tight, easily stealable races are?

[Democrats unite]

10. I beg to differ with you...

Read the original post. It's tight there in black & white!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. Read it again

There are 2 things working for Dean in Iowa:

The thousands of never-before-caucused who will show up for Dean on Monday

AND

The thousands of out-of-state supporters coming to Iowa over the past few weeks (I was one!) to Get Out the Vote and encourage people to caucus.

[Democrats unite]

24. I'll say again Flashbacks Of Florida!

I was there I lived it I saw it!

[bitchkitty]

53. Are you insinuating

that Dean supporters are going to try to steal the election? Because if you are, it's against the new rules.

It's just plain wierd that you find that out of the ordinary - Wesley Clark has supporters working for him too.

[Egnever]

8. Have to?

Nope don't have to but its a great indication of how solid his support is that thousands of people across the country have chosen to spend their own money to fly out to Iowa to do what they can to help dean get out his vote.

Dean didn't bring em there they brought themselves. Dean will win because of the passion of his supporters.

This will be repeated across the country. It will be the candidate that inspires the passion in his supporters that takes the nod. Dean supporters have that passion and we will do what it takes to get bush out and get Dean in.

Seems you prefer to sit at home and cheer your candidate from the sidelines. That wont get them the white house I guarantee it.

[Democrats unite]

17. How do you know where I am at?

You should never speculate, unless you know! Thats Dean problem it's called foot in mouth which Dean has been so good at & also doing the flip flop dance.

[Egnever]

30. Blah blah blah

Your not in Iowa suporting your candidate are you?

Thousands of Dean suporters are. They will be driving people to caucus with warm coffee and donuts in hand ready to make it easy for his supporters to go caucuss for him.

Meanwhile you will be sitting at home in florida posting negative spin about Dean. Hope is what will win not negative spin.

[bitchkitty]

54. No, he's not -

instead he's here, implying that Dean supporters are going to steal the election.

[KaraokeKarlton]

18. The 3000 plus volunteers are in Iowa to get Iowans to the caucuses

and getting them to caucus for Dean. The volunteers can't take part in caucuses, but they can help get Iowans to take part.

[indigo32]

20. I'm pretty sure many of the campaigns are bringing in people to CANVASS

In fact I've seen both Kucinich and Edwards people there personally. there is nothing "Florida"-like about it. It just happens that Dean has the support to have MORE people there, at least it would appear.

[JNelson6563]

34. Yep, Edwards called me to come to Iowa

Back when he first announced I signed up at his web-site for info and stuff. A couple weeks ago his campaign called me and asked if I'd go to Iowa for him.

All the campaigns are doing this. It is not at all like Florida. It's a smart campaign strategy. They're all doing it.

Julie

[edzontar]

5. I hope you are right....

Let's get this over with.

Dean IS the DP in 04.

Go Dean!

[Melodybe]

6. I think the same thing, he is very popular with the younger voters

but the TV says he is sliding, he has piqued, his time is up, I say whatever. If they think Dean supporters are that wishy-washy they are about to get a big surprise.

[Egnever]

9. Exactly right

There will be a huge surprise come monday I feel it in my bones!

[LuminousX]

12. Your optimism is appreciated

I've become very dour about my outlook for Dean in Iowa and New Hampshire and am looking a bit further down the road for victory.

[Egnever]

29. you are letting the media get to you.

Dont.

They saw him say he would break them up on hardball and it has been all negative all the time since.

They want you to be demoralized. Their worst nightmare is dean in the whitehouse, God forbid we are allowed to have a diverse media message.

Wait till monday I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

[LuminousX]

35. I'm actually very easily swayed

One of my 'fatal flaws' is I empathize with every argument presented. Right now, I'm suffering major cognitive dissonance as Dean reaps what in any other election year would be considered a blue ribbon panel of endorsements that would be the envy of the political world and in the field people are more than just harsh with Dean, they are downright junkyard dog vicious.

It shuts down my ability to process arguments and just makes me firmly stand my ground. And when I take a look around once in awhile and see Dean has slipped in the polls, I realize the junkyard dogs are winning.

I've signed on for the full tour, though, I just don't like having my high hopes dashed on the rocks of reality. I firmly believe Dean will get the nomination, in the end, though.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TexasPatriot]

14. i wouldnt be surprised by a win

but a blowout would be interesting. i think Dean maxes at 30 in Iowa... whether that means he wins by 10 or 1 i dont know, but my guess is he still wins it. Too much money, too many hard core supporters.

[in_cog_ni_to]

15. Not a chance.

By Monday, he'll be down even further in the polls. I predict a Gephardt win, followed by Kerry and THEN Dean. People are finally seeing the light. Dean can't beat Bush.

[Blitz]

25. You and I agree

See my post here for specific predictions.

[in_cog_ni_to]

31. That looks about right

to me. Gep has a HUGE union following. The unions GET THE VOTERS OUT! They get them to the polls AND stand there and make sure they vote the way they are "suppose" to. I think Gep may just surprise some people come Monday.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

50. I bet on whoever has the Senior vote - they always show up. I'm not

convinced that the "kids" will show up for Dean rain, snow or sleet. The biggest Dean supporters will, of course.

[Hoosier Democrat]

16. The real loser is Gephardt

Disclaimer: i am a Dean supporter

I still think that Dean will pull out the victory in Iowa, but both the Kerry and Edwards campaigns deserve MAJOR credit for turning things around the way they have. They have both suddenly become serious contenders and not just "also-rans"

The person who will come out of Iowa the loser is Gephardt. The way things are going, he may finish as low as fourth in Iowa. Unless he pulls out the win, I'm afraid his campaign is over. I'd really like to know why the Gephardt campaign seems to have fallen apart. I bet a friend a beer at Thanksgiving that Gephardt would beat Dean comfortably in Iowa.

Either way, Dean, Kerry, and Edwards all look like they have a ticket to New Hampshire and General Clark. This could be a very exciting primary season!

[Melodybe]

27. I think you're right Kerry and Edwards have done great for themselves

Geppy's rally on C-Span was depressing. Maybe 60 people were there and the crowd was not very lively. Plus they had some guy talking about dead babies, I felt bad for him but it was a major downer.

Let me offer my congratulations to Kerry and Edwards supporters they are both top notch, classy individuals and I wish them all the best.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

22. 40%? Too bad we can't bet money on it.

I could use a few extra bucks.

[jsw_81]

28. It's a definite possibility

In 2000, the final Iowa polls showed Gore with a narrow lead over Bradley. But when the votes were counted, Gore won by a 24-point landslide. Now those same pollsters (pollsters who make a living by attracting media attention and getting people to pay for "exclusive" poll results) are telling us that Kerry is surging ahead of Dean. Is he really? Let's wait and see.

[seventhson]

32. My 2 cents (and probably worth less)

Here is how I see it.

Iowa has always been Gephardts to lose.

If Dean wins it is a plus, but still no big deal if he loses because Dean is in many ways an unknown quantity.

Iowa is apparently made up of a lot of older caucuses who I think prefer to go with the established "liberals": Gephardt, Kerry and even Lieberman.

There is a "comfort" factor as well as a "fear" factor: fear of the unknown Dean.

For that reason I do not expect much from Dean in Iowa.

New Hampshire is where the rubber meets the road. The new democrats in NH are happy to go with a new face (who is kind of familiar to them). They know Kerry well and are not crazy about him and Gephardt is just kinda passe. Clark is the likely problem for Dean in New Hampshire IMHO. But I do NOT believe that Clark is going to be perceived as a "new" democrat because of his history -unlike Dean who is KNOWN as a responsible Democrat for his Vermont successes.

Edwards is the one who needs to make a good showing in Iowa and I think he can AND he will be a drag on the other mainstream established "liberal" dems. So we could very well have a four way tie which helps no one really in New Hampshire. SOMEBODY on CNN mentioned a brokered convention which sounds REALLY interesting to me.

The way I see it the Repubs are COUNTING on close calls and no clear frontrunner - which indicates disunity among the dems as they may see it.

I would like to see Dennbis make a strong showing too, but suspect that his folks will realistically go for Dean to try to black the "established" candidates.

I would be surprised by a blowout. I do not thgink Iowans are that progressive as far as taking a chance on an unknown quantity like Dean and which is why my guess is that Clark was bypassing them too, They want the secuity of a familiar face.

[AnAmerican]

43. What this?!?!

Admitting the polls are crap?!?!?

Now I can go to my grave knowing I have finally seen it all. I can also point out that Dennis has alot more support than the "scientific" polls indicate. Obviously, at least one person who supports another candidate will have to agree with me. :)

[jsw_81]

52. Polls aren't total crap, but some are

I vividly recall the hilarious "Portrait of America" polls showing Bush beating Gore by seven, eight even NINE points the day before the 2000 election. Don't even get me started on how wrong the exit polls were. As we all know, Gore went on to win the popular vote by a little over 500,000 and nobody has heard from Portrait of America since.

But when your candidate has been getting one or two percent in virtually every single scientific poll for six months (like Kucinich), then it's probably safe to say that he doesn't have much support. It doesn't mean that we hate Kucinich or are conspiring against him, it just means that he isn't our choice for president.

[PassingFair]

33. I'm chilling the champagne, Egnever!

They aren't going to know what hit them!

[Egnever]

47. I am going to a party!

Theres a caucus watching party being put on by the local fean supporters. Ir should be a good times I cant wait for monday!

I will raise a toast to you when the results come in!

[molly]

36. I predict Dean won't even be a whisper - you heard it here first

folks. I will be very surprised if Dean wins anything.

[AntiCoup2K4]

45. Keep dreaming, Molly

:)

[Cuban_Liberal]

37. Dean will win with 32-35%.

Kerry takes 2nd with 27%, Edwards and Gephart tie at 17%, knocking Gephart out.

My $.02.

[sandnsea]

38. Truthfully, that sounds about right n/t

[Cuban_Liberal]

40. I think uncommitteds like me don't get 'invested' in polls.

I think the polls are all wet, frankly. I think Dean will turn out large numbers of first-time voters the pollsters aren't even counting.

[SheilaT]

39. Perhaps this deserves a separate thread

of its own, but does anyone know what the polling was in DC before they actually voted?

[AnAmerican]

44. DC polls prior to the "beauty contest"

Dean 27%
Gephardt 7%
Kerry 4%
Clark 11%
Lieberman 5%
Edwards 1%
Braun 4%
Sharpton 5%
Kucinich 1%
WTOP-TV
(11/23-25)

Interesting considering the breakdown was;

Dean +40%

Sharpton 37% (?)

Braun 12%

Kucinich 8%

Yep...them "scientific" polls are unbeatable.

[ISUGRADIA]

55. Uh...the poll you cited had a 35% undecided

Poll are only a snapshot in time. That poll you cited is obviously from a few weeks or more before the primary and is useless in predicting the final results, especially with the candidates who did not list themselves on the ballot included.

A poll right before an election with a good sampling method should be reasonably accurate. For example, polls in Iowa put Kucinich in a distant 5th place with less than 5% of the vote. I'm betting he'll stay there with maybe 5-7% of the caucus vote.

[David Dunham]

42. Dean Should Not Count on New Voters

It is persons who have voted regularly in the past who are most likely to turn out to the caucuses. Those persons, to the extent they have been on the fence, seem to be breaking for Kerry and Edwards. Dean's anti-war message doesn't seem likely to work with them.

[bitchkitty]

56. Wrong, sweetie -

first time voters make up a large part of Dean's base. Don't underestimate the power of a really, really bad President (so-called) to bring out voters. Bush is toast. Goodbye chimpie, hello President Dean!

[Woodstock]

48. May the best man win - I'm sick of them all

:(

[Walt Starr]

49. If you are right and that does occur (not saying you're right)

then that means EVERY Democrat, and I do mean EVERY, must absolutely accept such an occurrence as incontrovertible evidence that Dean has, in fact, attracted a huge base of previously uninterested and disaffected potential voters to his campaign.

This would mean one thing and one thing only. Dean MUST be nominated. He would be the best hope of defeating Bush and the Bush faction would have absolutely no clue what hit them. The Democratic Party would be absolutely foolish to turn this type of grass roots voter base away.

The party would have to also accept, these voters are not transferable. It would be Dean or nobody for the majority of them.

I seriously doubt the "phoenix rising from the ashes" scenario you have presented, but the only conclusion is the anecdotal evidence presented by Dean supporting DUers about this phenomena has been widespread.

[Closer]

51. I don't know about 40%

but I agree Dean will win handily.

I predict by 15-20%.

I also think Edwards will come in a distant second, with Gephardt just slightly behind.

[Shanty Oilish]

57. Squeaker

I think Dean will take it, but no landslide. The result of Iowa will be a landslide for "Undecided." No clear momentum for any of them.