4th place Dean finish in Iowa- what would it do to his campaign?

[ringmastery]

Let's say the unthinkable happens. It is a 4 way race, afterall and anything can happen.

If the results in Iowa are:

Kerry- first
Gep - second
Edwards -third
Dean - fourth

What would happen to the Dean campaign?

[rucky]

1. Depends on New Hampshire

If he wins - teflon.
If he doesn't win - tailspin.

That's how it will be characterized, at least, so that's how it shall come to pass.

[Melodybe]

encourage his supporters to work twice as hard in NH and super Tuesday

[Bill McBlueState]

2. I suppose that depends on the separation

Is Dean a distant fourth, like 10 percentage points or more?

I can definitely see a situation where four candidates are within 5 points of one another. In that case, I don't think any of them would be seriously hurt.

[jsw_81]

3. It would kill his campaign, but that's not going to happen

[the populist]

4. I would throw a party.

I can't tell you how happy I would be if Dean's prospects for nomination were destroyed on Monday. I'm sick of being pessimistic about November.

[pasadenaboy]

10. I guess we disagree on who would make us the most pessimistic about

victory in November.

[LuminousX]

5. Make things more difficult.

Nothing more. There will obviously be a demoralizing factor, but a new round of fundraising and a fresh batch of volunteers will descend on New Hampshire to help organize and energize.

[Sir_Shrek]

6. I think...

...it would probably signal a realignment of sorts within the party. The more I think about Dean, the more I think that he probably doesn't appeal to older Dem voters the way he does to the youth. I don't think this means Dean is a bad candidate or that he has bad policy...just that he doesn't excite them much. It's probably a combination of lack of perceived experience, more knowledge of guys like Gep and Kerry, and more of a "youth-oriented" campaign. Guys like Gep and Kerry ooze experience, and Gep's relationship with the unions are well-known.

What I think happens is a greater tilt to the center because of this (hypotethical situation). I think Dean, Clark, and Kucin. are going to find themselves tempted to become a little more moderate, whether it's in politics or presentation. Gep. and Kerry can pull stuff like that off in their sleep. Dean and Clark may have to make a more visible effort.

[SheilaT]

28. Dean doesn't appeal to older voters?

That's not true here in Kansas. Early on we didn't have many young (under 30) voters showing up for him, but now we do. Still, I'd say a good half of his support here is over 50.

Maybe that's good since historically older people vote in greater numbers.

[AP]

7. I gave it it's own thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=122328

[ThomWV]

8. Even a 2nd Place Showing

Would burst his balloon I would think. I know I won't vote for him in the primary but that sure doesn't mean that I wouldn't vote for him in the Presidential election, only that I would prefer to have the opportunity to vote for someone else, but not just anyone else.

Thom

[TexasPatriot]

9. i seriously doubt

Dean will do worse than 2nd... and i'd bet he'll win by 4 or 5 pts... but - working from the assumption in the post, i think it would call Dean's ability to deliver voters to the polls into question (why else would he finish 4th).

I guess I just think 4th is silly. He has too much money to finish 4th.

[quaker bill]

11. Cause his supporters to work harder in NH.

We always knew this would be close. We are running in 50 States. That result would leave 49 of them left to win.

[threemilemind]

12. Iowa is overrated imo

[NoPasaran]

13. It would only strengthen our resolve

To win the other 49.

[threemilemind]

14. That type of thinking scares me

A fourth place finish would seriously hurt Dean

[the populist]

15. A second place would destroy him.

Well, it should; but with CNN promoting this guy like crazy who knows.

[not systems]

16. Ouch...I hope Dean get at least second.

Forth would really hurt.

I have family in Iowa and they are splitting
Dean/Kerry or Dean/Gep.

If he only gets forth, I will be disappointed.

He will be able to come back if NH and SC go his way.

[DancingBear]

17. 3rd or 4th would be a serious blow

It would re-enforce the "elect ability" issue going into NH, and pundits et al would deliver crushing blows with story lines such as "$40M and thousands of ground troops, yet he still couldn't get 'average' Iowans to caucus for him."

He will be seen as the marginalized "angry persons" candidate if he finishes 3rd or 4th, possibly even second, since whomever beats him will have overcome tremendous odds in most peoples eyes.

I think he HAS to win Iowa. Convincingly.

[bigwillq]

I agree with the serious blow factor but

I think Dean will still win N.H. no matter what, although it'll be close. More than anything, I think a 3rd or 4th will be more of a blow to Dean;'s ego but his supporters (me include) will work harder than ever to get him back on top. I think 3rd or 4th is more damaging to Kerry. This week has been so positive for him that he can't afford another set back.

[DancingBear]

21. Agree with you on Kerry

He has the expectations now to finish highly in Iowa - if he falters that will slow his new found momentum in NH, and he needs to keep that going.

With regard to NH, Dean is almost in a no-win situation here if he fares poorly in Iowa. With both Clark and Kerry on his heels, anything less than a blow-out (10 points plus) brings up the same "on the ground for two years but couldn't bring out the undecideds" mantra. Fair or not, he has been portrayed over these last months as the de facto winner in NH by a large margin.

I am sure Dean supporters will literally redouble their efforts in NH to offset a poor Iowa performance, but I am not sure at all that extra work will translate into extra votes, for I fear he (Dean) will become a "plateau" (stalling at around 28-30%, or less) candidate if Iowa yields poor results.

[bigwillq]

22. Extra work won't result on extra votes, I agree

But it will totally stun me if Dean doesn't win or place second in NH. I think Iowa is a toss-up.

[DancingBear]

26. Yes to both

I think Dean is 1 or 2 for sure in NH, but it's not like it doesn't matter which. If he finishes second that is as close to a death blow as any campaign would want.

As for Iowa, I have NO idea who wins what where when or how. Ain't politics fun! :)

[bigwillq]

27. Death blow? My verdict is still out there about NH

yes, dean is expected to win NH, it's his neighboring state but I think it still depends on what happens and Iowa and who Dean finished second to in NH. If it's Clark in NH then maybe a death blow b/c then Clark would have momentum going into Super Tues.

[Nicholas_J]

29. Iowa

Tends to have a direct effect on what happens a few days later in New Hampshire and what has been happening in New Hampshire appears to be what happend in Iowa a week or so ago. Dean has begun to see a drop in his polls in Iowa in the last few weeks, dropping from a high point of 40 percent in the polls to 29 percent just yesterday, with Clark moving up rather rapidly to 25 percent, which means that there is now nearly a dead heat between Dean and Clark in New Hampshire. The closer to the caucus or primary, the more the polls begin to reflect the actual breakdown of the electorate, as the local media begins to spend more time focusing on the candidates than they did earlier, and as the voters in both Iowa and New Hampsire had to rely on national media and news wres to provide them with information about the candidates, the info they were being provided with was less focused on local needs and opinions. When you get into the last ten days before the primary or caucus. local political journalists and editors begin to write about the candidate and issues that are of consern to the local communities.

For example, I just read a letter in which one person, leaning towards Dean but undecided, only yesterday became aware of Dean being supported by, and supporting the stance of the N.R.A., and this person has decided that he is going to have to investigate this claim being made about Dean, as he will not support a candidate who has been endorsed by the N.R.A. So even at this late date, there are voters and caucus goers who have been leaning towards particular candidates who do not know the stance of those candidates on issues that may be primary issues for those individuals in making their own personal choice for the nominee. For some people N.R.A. support might be an issue that is not of great importance, but to others it may be an issue that would cause them to decide to lean towards another candidate. In Iowa, people are only now fiding in local newspapers, and on the evening news, what each candidates stance is, and what there prior political records are. This is why most races tighten up at the end, and often result in great upsets in who ends up winning a particular primary.

For the last week or so, I have been sitting and reading a pile of the Economist Magazine, dating from after Thanksgiving of 1999, until after the New Hampshire nomination primary of 2000, and the Economist from early January stated that it was a done deal, and that the candidates runnng for president in 2000 would be John Mc Cain for the Republicans, and Bill Bradley for the Democrats, as no one was within striking range of bringing their great leads in the polls down.

The Economnist called this a done deal

[bigwillq]

18. I agree with the serious blow factor but

I think Dean will still win N.H. no matter what, although it'll be close. More than anything, I think a 3rd or 4th will be more of a blow to Dean;'s ego but his supporters (me include) will work harder than ever to get him back on top. I think 3rd or 4th is more damaging to Kerry. This week has been so positive for him that he can't afford another set back.

[bigwillq]

19. Sorry I posted this twice. I don't know what happened

[Larkspur]

20. Dean is running a 50 state campaign. He is the ONLY candidate to do so

That's why he went to places like Idaho during the Sleepless Summer Tour. He's going to fight for every delegate vote he can get. Dean won't quit if he comes in 3rd or 4th in any Caucus or Primary. He's going to fight for every delegate he can get.

And based upon the JJ Dinner organization battle, Dean and Kerry had the most number of supporters, with Dean beating Kerry 4-to-1 in sections. Dean had 12 whole sections to Kerry's 3. Gephardt supporters were surprisingly absent from the big JJ Dinner. So maybe Kerry's organization is stronger than Geps in Iowa.

[bigwillq]

23. That's why even if Dean finishes second in Iowa or

3rd or 4th (which I don't think is likely) he can stil ldo well elsewhere. I think Dean still will win NH. It'll be tough in other states mainly down south but I think he'll still be in the Top 3 in those Southern States.

[Padraig18]

24. We would burn all $20 millionin cash-on-hand in the street.

j/k :P

[OhioStateProgressive]

25. i think it depends

if only 7 or 8 percentage points seperates the top four, i won't think it will matter much at all