Advice for Dr Dean

[Bucky]

Here's the symptom to the problem. The Jan 2-4 ARG poll looked like this: Dean (39%), Kerry (14%), Clark (12%).

Eleven days later the same methodology produces these Jan 13-15 results: Dean (28%), Clark (23%), Kerry (16%). This isn't quite what they mean by "tanking" since Dean is clearly in the lead here. But the findings have been consistant and the numbers show a steady erosion of support. And of course the downward trend may continue for the next ten days till the primaries.

If you were to advise Governor Dean on how to turn this around, what would you say?

Do you go negative? If so, should you hit Kerry or Clark? My gut tells me Kerry is hurting Dean more since Clark's rise in the polls wasn't as tied to a drop for Dean. But over the last four days, Dean has dropped 8 points while Kerry has moved up 6. I think Clark, if anything, is hurting Lieberman--it's just the two of them in the state right now and yet Lieberman's down three points (from 10% down to 7%) from the 11th to the 15th.

If you don't go on an attack (which could hurt your image among undecided voters), what strategy or message will turn those numbers around? Is it pump up the base again after Iowa? Do you come out with a big tax reform plan? Is the "first/only candidate to oppose the war" hand played out? Or will the GOTV volunteers in Iowa come back east after the 19th to ensure a solid win in Granite State?


(Btw, Kerry's NH numbers are the most interesting I've seen in my history as a Democrat. Clinton did a comeback in '92, but I think Kerry's could be bigger by far. From Dec 28 to Jan 10 he coasted steadily down to a 10% floor; then he's climbed back up to 16% from Jan 11 to 15. On the other hand, there might be something to voters having edged away from him last month. What are the odds that they're going to "come home" to the guy they left just that recently?)

[AP]

1. Problem: change too much, and people note the inconsistency of your...

...message. They don't know who you are. They don't vote for you.

However, don't change at all, and you lose. Dean definitely has some institutional problems with his persona which work great vs Bush but not so great against the other candidates.

Perhaps the best advice is to drop the things that aren't working (anger), emphasize the things that have been working (running around like a madman) and hope people don't percieve it as a change.

Furthermore, it might actually be helpful for him to lose in IA and then use it as an opportunity for a public reevaluation of himself. He can pretend that it has humbled him and that he has changed. Then he can jettison things that aren't working and pick up new, good qualities and do it withing a narrative framing that makes sense to voters.

He still runs the risk of confusing the hell out of voters, but it may be the case that he needs to do something to get elected.

There's another choice unworthy of a Democrat: the Bush 2000 strategy. Keep up with the persona that isn't working, but outspend your opponent and play dirty. The media needs to play along with that strategy. But they have been for 9 months.

[shance]

2. I think we fix the electronic voting issue and start with fair elections.

I think we are suckers for believing all this polling crap.

Its just more of the distraction and dog and pony. If we dont get paper ballots, we will have no way of ever knowing who is really winning and our government and those in power will be choosing our candidates.

I think this charade has been taking place since atleast 2000, but has gotten increasingly more fraudulent due to the ease of manipulating electronic ballot data.

[cthrumatrix]

4. ding ding ding --- only way --- a vote shrub out!

[Bucky]

5. Don't confuse opinion polls w/ BBV election polls

I've worked in market research. Some polls are crap, but most reputable firms do come up with legitimate findings. The ARG findings are certainly part of that category. In fact, public opinion polls are a great way of checking the results of electronic voting polls against fraud & thievery.

If people were cheating in the polls, it would mean that they think that have a reason to help Clark and Kerry in order to hurt or punish Dean and Lieberman. It can't all be a conspiracy against your guy.

Now please respond to the question axed.

[cthrumatrix]

3. Polls are not accurate (so they say) lets see for ourselves

a daily poll seems a bit intense to me....

The media would have it no other way --- they don't have to report a dem. message ...just who's ahead and fighting

[Bucky]

6. kick, dammit. This is a serious question

:(

:dem:

[quaker bill]

7. Let's see

Clark is up 11 points, Dean is down 11 points. Kerry is static (within the Error of Measurement).

Changes seen for Kerry could easily be attributed to sampling noise. I think Dean needs to address Clark.

[Bucky]

8. MOE is 5. Kerry's up 6.

Look closer at the dates in the link. While Clark surged, Dean dropped from 39% to 36%. Clark's been level since Kerry's rise. And that's the period during which Dean began faltering.

[pasadenaboy]

9. Dean needs to

have an overarching philosophy of what the country means and where it needs to go. I support Dean, but he needs to do a much better job of articulating a social philosophy.

If I were him, I think I would hammer on the fact that W has changed our country into an US vs them, and we need to realize that we are all in it together as americans, and work to give everyone a hand up, to revitalize the middle class, and to increase our idea of community. Dean needs to point to how his campaign has created a sense off community amongst his supporters, and talk about how he wants to bring that to the whole country.

He needs to get a better large picture vision, not tied into policy. It will help humanize him.