Dean's recent slide in the polls will end up being a good thing for him.

[milkyway]

The most important thing in Iowa and New Hampshire is not the polls, nor the actual voting. Unfortunately, it's the media perception of the voting. His poll numbers were too high for too long. If they had stayed that way, he had nowhere to go but down in the actual voting. The media then would have droned on about his disappointing showing, even if he had won by a solid margin. But now if he wins even by a small margin in Iowa, it will be viewed as a positive by the media. He will be the Comeback Kid.

Also, Dean seems to campaign much better as the underdog. Once it became clear that he was the frontrunner for the nomination, he's struggled (thanks in large part to the RNC-led media). He plays offense much better than defense. If he does win the nomination, he will again be the underdog against Bush, and will do what he does best--go right after him.

[lupita]

1. Thank you for this opinion

I tend to agree with this.
Plus, Dean needs to learn from this. Fighting Bush is only going to be
harder

[On the Road]

2. Especially Since Iowa

as a caucus state, is less dependent on polls than most states. I think Dean's organization will pull it off.

[Toucano]

3. I think you could be right.

A little slip in the polls can re-energize everyone involved.

This race isn't over by a long shot. It'll be very interesting to see it unfold.

[jeter]

4. If he struggles past NH - there won't be a chance

to be an underdog. His candidacy will be over.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. There are 25 million reasons why I disagree with that statement.

Oops, wrong Dean!

[funky_bug]

21. LOL

Nice photoshop, Rummy!

[Cuban_Liberal]

22. LOL!

I keep reminding some of teh fantasy-oriented, non-Dean supporters of that fact myself, RUMMY. They build up these incredible 'what if' scenarios and I then slap them in the face with your '25 million reasons'.

Sorta sad, watching them deflate afterwards, though...:shrug:

[polpilot]

23. Dean's odds are the same odds as the colonists v. King George. Same

people...same blood...same issues. Viva La France!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04...

[Anwen]

5. I completely....

agree :-)

[newyawker99]

7. Hi Anwen!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[AP]

6. How can you tell the difference between a "nowehere to go but down"

slide" into losing nomination from a "downward readjustment" that takes you to a plateaue from which there's somewhere to go besides down?

I mean, how do you know this isn't the downard slide to the bottom rather than just a readjustment?

[robcon]

8. I think the big difference...

between a "downward adjustment" and a "slide to the bottom" for Dean is money. He has so much more money that his opponents, he can afford big expenditures in the big states.

Of course, if any one candidate (other than Dean) wins both Iowa and NH, that candidate may receive some "real" money, and fight Dean on a level playing field in those big states.

[AP]

9. If you have unlimited spending and a downward trend, that's really BAD.

More money should mean more able to convey your message to people. If more and more people are hearing about you and you're going down, that's bad. If everyone has heard about you and you can't buy yourself another vote, that's bad too.

[Khephra]

10. The new Zogby this morning has Dean going up and Kerry going down

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=125933

Which is actually closer than it looks when you look at the full numbers.

"Kerry held a slim lead over Dean, 22.6 percent to 22.1 percent, in the latest three-day tracking poll, with Gephardt in third place at 19.1 percent and Edwards moving up to 17.9 percent."

http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=YH0NZIP4FTSL0CRBAEKSFEY?type=topNews&storyID=4151943

Kerry is now only up by half a point.

All the polls are too close to call and the undecided are finally making up their mind. This "Dean is in freefall" line is nothing but BS.

[creativelcro]

11. it just shows how useless these polls are.

Why doesn't Zogby run parallel independent polls ? Same days, different groups of randomly selected people... Because it would show how useless these polls are... It would show huge, same-day variability.

[the populist]

12. Is the jar half-empty or half-full?

I see his waning poll numbers as a result of his being the "front-runner" for too long and people like Kerry and Gephardt becoming the underdogs. I think that when any candidate becomes the "front-runner" people are less enthused to vote for them because of the idea that "agh, why bother; he'll win anyway."

I'm no political analyst, but I think this is a cycle of sorts.

The important thing is: Will Dean's status as the front-runner be intact on Monday or will he once again be the underdog he was in early 2003?

[bearfartinthewoods]

14. interesting that these points are all about process and not substance.

[mzmolly]

15. Actually we tend to break threads down into various *subjects*

this one happens to be about the process.

If you contribute you can search the threads and find the substance you so desire.

[Cuban_Liberal]

16. It's been noted recently in the media that...

... Dean does best when he's the underdog; I suspect that may prove true again tonight, because I'm guessing a solid Dean win. :)

[maddezmom]

17. how do you think Edwards is going to shake out? n/t

[Cuban_Liberal]

19. A solid 3rd, maybe a tie for 2nd with Kerry.

I still see this as Dean's night, because his organization is just TOO good to overcome, unless I'm badly mistaken..

[phirili]

18. What a silly post. Like Bush saying we are winning when more attacks occur

[paulk]

20. I don't agree

Both the ARG polls in NH and the Zogby polls in Iowa have been consistent in one thing - voters are most concerned about selecting a candidate who they believe can beat Bush. After having been set up by the media as the front runner, Dean HAS to win Iowa. Even a narrow victory, especially if Kerry or Edwards take second, could be portrayed by the media as a "loss". Kerry or Edwards will win the "comeback kid" label. And Dean could come out of it tagged as a "loser".

In New Hampshire Dean's position is even more precarious. If Iowa sets the perception in voters minds that Dean can't win, we could see an upset in NH. Polls have shown that as much as 45% of the electorate considers itself undecided or "soft" in their support. there could be a huge swing in NH based on the Iowa results. It's happened before. With the huge lead Dean had just a month ago, even a single digit win might be portrayed by the press as, once again, a
"loss".

Dean's money , organization, and media exposure need to translate into wins - impressive wins - or voters will see him as someone who can't beat Bush, and if that happens his candidacy is doomed.