Survey USA Iowa Tracking Poll - HD 24, JE 22, JK 21, DG 20

[anti-bush]

Survey USA Poll

They surveyed over 4000 adults in the voting period 1/13 - 1/15

Among most *CERTAIN* voters, SURVEYUSA sees it: DEAN 24%, EDWARDS 22%, KERRY 21%, GEPHARDT 20%.
But among all likely voters, it's EDWARDS 1ST, KERRY 2ND. Will momentum trump organization? Will young Deaniacs show? Can labro push GEPHARDT over the top?

* Compared to identical SURVEYUSA POLL 8 days ago: EDWARDS is + 5, KERRY & GEPHARDT are flat, DEAN is down 5. Edwards is only one with momentum, but his support is softest.


WOW! This is getting crazy!

[windansea]

1. better edit that nickname for dean supporters n/t

[anti-bush]

5. It's a quote

I'll stand by quoting a nationally recognized survey company.

[jsw_81]

2. Bizarre

Gephardt in fourth place?

[lancdem]

3. Ruy Texiera has an interesting piece on how the Iowa race

is hardest to accurately poll because it's really hard to get a true reflection on who's a likely voter.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

[saltpoint]

4. First, I like your username --

-- and next, I just wanted to throw in a possibility on the bunched-up numbers in Iowa.

I don't see it as a momentum question so much. I think Iowans are looking really close at the field of Democrats before them and they are liking what they see. I think all this interest and enthusiasm toward the end of the Iowa race is a good sign for Democrats in November.

The bunched-up numbers are telling us that our people have strengths that attract Iowans.

I say we'll whomp Dubya in November because of those strengths.

[anti-bush]

6. You're absolutely correct

The closer and wilder the race becomes, the more attention will be focused on the Democrats (which is good). If there was a blowout, it wouldn't be covered nearly as much.

Edit: And thanks for the nickname compliment

[Rose Siding]

7. 4000 is a huge sample but "voters"?

I wish it said "caucus goers"

[Bucky]

22. But you don't want a survey sample that's too big

If you oversample, then you create the possibility that your sampling technique could skew toward one likely set of voter. I mean "caucus goers". Of course you can check for that by seeing if the first half of those surveyed chronologically are statistically different in either response or demographics from those questioned during the second half of the survey time period. But doing that internal checking process takes some careful planning and a randomization within the survey process--something no business manager would allow because it creates chaos in the survey offices.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. I think women are moving from Dean to Edwards

and Men from Gep to Kerry.

[On the Road]

11. That's Very Likely

I hadn't thought of it that way, but I'm sure there is a real gender gap.

I'm wondering if the "Dean Supports Wife-Beater" story has cost him some support. If so, I would think the story will die. I'm wondering how carefully the timing was worked out.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

12. Edwards is so damned nice and women LOVE him and he's

good looking to boot! And Kerry's so damned macho and Gep is looking like a loser now. I really think that's what the polls will show.

[spooky3]

20. He's nice, but he is tough tough tough.

I can't wait for the Silk Assassin to take on Bush in a debate.

[jenk]

9. Edwards will win Iowa!

[Progressive420]

10. GO EDWARDS

Im a Clark guy and Edwards is probably my 2nd i really hope edwards wins Iowa

[spooky3]

13. Welcome to DU, Progressive420!

[curse10]

14. This is fabulous!

I love all this switching going on. It's exciting!

[cthrumatrix]

15. anything can happen --- this Edwards rise surprises me

I still think Dean has the best national organization to win and compete against bush

[spooky3]

18. Me too--but I think all the time he has put into Iowa

rather than splitting a lot of his time between Iowa and New Hampshire, has helped him tremendously. He is a "high touch" guy who does really well person-to-person. No one has time to connect personally with every voter across the country. But maybe if he can gain momentum here, then his strength in his platform and in his speeches will carry him.

[JI7]

16. wow, edwards

all the trends are in his favor. if he comes in first i think the nomination is his.

[Zomby Woof]

17. Edwards and Kerry!

Their momentum is encouraging. I think the undecideds got a closer look at Dean and said, "No thanks!" :D

Edwards is my #2 choice, and Kerry right behind him. A victory for either one of them would be the repudiation of Dean's agenda, and prove that he is vulnerable once and for all.

[spooky3]

19. I think all the media bashing directed at Dean is the main

factor here.

[MidwestMomma]

21. I think it's the up close interaction the Iowans have with the candidates

There's a huge difference between deciding on a candidate based on how the media portrays them and hearing them speak in person.

I saw all the candidates speak in person at the Harkin Steak fry and it changed my opinion about several of them. I can't imagine having townhall meetings, pancake breakfasts, etc with them and not having that end up impacting your opinion of them....good or bad.

I think it's hard for people just seeing the candidates on tv and reading about them to understand why there can be such changes in people's support of different candidates in Iowa. They get such a closer look at the candidates then say, someone in Kansas, ever will.

Unfortunately, this is why sometimes we end up with candidates that do not play as well in General Election because the candidates can not get up close and personal nationwide like they do in the early primary states. So sometimes we get a candidate that is good at persuading voters to vote for him in a statewide contest but can not generate that same appeal in a national contest because voter decisions are made based on tv appearances, etc...