IOWA POLL 1/17: Kerry 23% (-1) Dean 22% (+3) Geph 19% (+0) Edw 18% (+2)

[arcos]

If the caucus were held today, for whom would you vote?

1/12-14 1/13-15 1/14-16

Kerry 22% 24% 23%

Dean 21% 19% 22%

Gephardt 21% 19% 19%

Edwards 17% 17% 19%

Lieberman 1% 1% 1%

Clark 3% 3% 3%

Kucinich 3% 3% 2%

Sharpton .1% .1% .2%

Undecided 11% 13% 11%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3936832/

[patricia92243]

1. I'm surprised - thought Clark was supposed to be surging ahead - doesn't

look like much surging to me

[wyldwolf]

2. None has ever said or implied he was surging in Iowa...

only in the Nationals and New Hampshire.

[stickdog]

8. OK.

[mzmolly]

15. He's not surging nationally. He's surging in some states.

:shrug:

[bain_sidhe]

20. Actually, he IS surging nationally

from Polling Report: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=380 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.

..................1/14-15/04 ... 12/30/03-1/1/04 ... 11/18-19/03

Howard Dean........19..............22..................14
Wesley Clark........14...............8..................12
John Kerry.............9..............10...................9
Joseph Lieberman....9...............9..................11
John Edwards........9...............5...................5
Dick Gephardt.......8...............7...................6

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Jan. 10-12, 2004. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,002 adults nationwide). (edited to put them in the same order)

....................1/10-12......12/14......12/13

Howard Dean........24...........25.........29
Wesley Clark........19...........11.........10
John Kerry...........7............5..........6
Joe Lieberman......12............9..........7
John Edwards........5............3..........5
Richard Gephardt...11...........11.........12

[girl gone mad]

3. I don't think..

Clark is even running in Iowa. I guess those 3% who chose him don't know that.

[maddezmom]

6. In Iowa?

surely you jest, he's not running there. :)

[maddezmom]

4. Edwards tied with Gep

Edward's is surging, he may be the one to watch in Iowa. :)

[arcos]

5. yes...

my prediction?

1. Dean
2. Edwards
3. Kerry
4: Gephardt

[isbister]

7. Interesting numbers

in addition to the "If the caucus were held today" question.

[Padraig18]

9. Very fluid situation

Edwards coming on strong, Dean's support on the way back up. Monday night will be VERY interesting.

[WI_DEM]

10. according to Zogby

Dean is doing best among liberals, younger voters, and Independents. Gep doing best among voters with less than a college degree and voters 65 and over. Kerry doing best with men, 50-64 year olds, and higher income voters. Edwards doing best in Central part of state and college educated.

[LoneStarDem]

11. Hmm

So the question is, of those demographic groups, who is the most likely to caucus?

[w13rd0]

12. that's a good question...

...I guess that depends on the who and whyfores. I'm not confident that traditional models hold up under scrutiny. Heck, I think we desperately NEED to shatter some of those models...

[TLM]

19. The folks most likely to caucus....

are the ones being getting to their caucuses back via a fleet of vans driven by 3000 dean supporters.

[Khephra]

13. It's actually closer than it looks

"Kerry held a slim lead over Dean, 22.6 percent to 22.1 percent, in the latest three-day tracking poll, with Gephardt in third place at 19.1 percent and Edwards moving up to 17.9 percent."

http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=YH0NZIP4FTSL0CRBAEKSFEY?type=topNews&storyID=4151943

Kerry only leads Dean by .5 of a point now.

And the Edwards number is off on the first post. It should be 18, not 19.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=783

[mzmolly]

14. Oh NOOOO Kerry is in a freefall! He's finished!!! Kidding of course.

Dead heat in Iowa folks. Dead heat.

[ozone_man]

16. Dean surging?

From a poster's analysis yesterday, he correctly determined that Kerry would have had to poll 31/12 (Kerry/Dean) on Thursday to yield the 24/19 3 day moving average. By the same analysis, Kerry would then have had to poll 16.5/31.5 (Kerry/Dean)on Friday to arrive at the 23/22 3 day average.

Therefore, it appears that Dean is surging. If correct, tomorrow he should regain the lead. The error margin is quite high of course and these polls are probably not going to come close to actuals, but it is fun playing along. But you have to ask yourself how does the one day poll go from 31/12 to 16.5/31.5 (Kerry/Dean) in a 167 daily poll? Seems like they have a few bugs.

[dfong63]

17. GO DEAN!

[shivaji]

18. Dean/Edwards would be the strongest ticket,

and Edwards/Dean second strongest.

[AP]

23. But it'd make the least sense. They're opposites. & Dean hates IWR yes...

...voters.

It would be an admission that his campaign strategy was fraudulent if he picked Edwards.

And Edwards would need to slap Dean in public over Dean's tax idiocy.

[Kal Belgarion]

21. Sorry folks. Kerry's peaked too early...

Kerry's peaked already, and he's in free-fall right now. It looks like Dean's playing the roll of the come-back kid. Gephardt might as well drop out of the race now; His poll numbers are just going to keep plummeting. Oh, and look! Sharpton's well on his way to a victory! Look at his numbers go! It looks like his base is the most mobilized, as his support has *doubled* in one day!

[rfjockey]

22. I wouldn't say Kerry has necessarily peaked yet....

Here are the daily poll numbers between Dean and Kerry. (See this link for the background on how we got the daily numbers, these are not the 3 day tracking numbers)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=123328

Dean Mon 27, Tues 18, Wed 18, Thurs 21, Fri 27
Kerry Mon 20, Tues 25, Wed 21, Thurs 26, Fri 22

Kerry seems to be bouncing around in the low 20's, I would argue that he has plateaued, but not dropped any. Dean has had a rebound in the last few days and will probably bounce up a bit tommorrow as well in the tracking poll as he will be replacing Wed's low of 18 with (most likely) something in the low 20's as well.

I'll predict the headline tommorrow will be Dean and Kerry dead even at 23 in the tracking poll.