As Iowa Caucuses Near, Crystal Ball Gets Cloudy

[Feanorcurufinwe]

a New York Times/CBS News poll taken last week noted a jump, to 20 percent from 12 percent, in the number of Democratic primary voters who said they held an unfavorable view of Dr. Dean. More ominous for Democrats who are assessing which candidate might be the strongest to unseat Mr. Bush, the poll, reflecting the finding of other surveys in recent weeks, found that 29 percent of registered voters held an unfavorable view of Dr. Dean — a notably high number for this early in a campaign.

In Council Bluffs, on the western edge of Iowa, Kathleen Sailors, a retiree, said she was reconsidering her support of Dr. Dean as she watched him in these final days of the contest. Mrs. Sailors said electability would be her No. 1 criterion in choosing a challenger for Mr. Bush when she attends her first caucus on Monday night, and she said she was no longer sure that Dr. Dean was the strongest candidate her party had to put up against Mr. Bush. "I thought he was going to be the only chance we had to get one of our guys in there," she said. But now, she said, "I'm just not sure anymore that he's the best one to beat Bush."

<snip>

In Clinton, Mr. Kerry fired back at Dr. Dean and Mr. Gephardt for challenging his support for farmers by noting that he had once called for cutbacks in the size of the Agriculture Department. "It's obvious that my campaign is moving, because two of the major candidates have chosen in the last two days to engage in a smear effort on my farm policy here in America," he said.

Mr. Kerry was unapologetic. "I'm going to fight to change the whole relationship, the relationship between the bureaucrats in Washington," he said. "If the other candidates want to defend U.S.D.A. and its representation of the small farmers, let them go ahead and do that.`
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/18/politics/campaigns/18DEMS.html?ex=1075006800&en=6577333282df9c7a&ei=5062

[Frances]

1. The good news

Democrats want to beat Bush! I am so pleased that the Democrats in Iowa see Bush as the real enemy!

[AP]

2. Dean has been running a polarizing campaign.

He defines himself by contrasting himself to Bush. He defines what he doesn't like, and simply argues that he's the opposite.

It is no surprise that he has high unfavorables. It shows that people are paying attention to what he's trying to do.

[bigwillq]

3. That is true. I still think that Dean is tops among the candidates

for getting his name and image out there. Yes that will translate to some people not liking him but I think he still has the strength and support to win Iowa and go on to win the nomination.

[AP]

4. But if you have to do it using a strategy that ultimately sinks your run

what was it worth in the first place?

It may be harder to get supporters based on them knowing your REAL identiy and your REAL policies. But once you have them, they aren't going to bail on you.

Name recognition is great. But we're not electing the most popular guy. We're electing the person with the best ideas.

That's how Clinton got elected president.