If Dean wins because he drives people to polls, and Edwards goes up

[AP]

20 pts in polling but doesn't win because he didn't have the ground organization to get people to the polls in the first primary, will national Dems think Edwards was the winner?

After all, it's not like Dean is going to be able to get every American a babysitter and a ride to the polls in November. It seems like it'd be smarter to go with the guy who surged incredibly with spending limits, and without car rides for everyone and babysitters. After all, it's the first primary. Of course he wouldn't have that kind of organization.

Will national Dems think, hmm, forget organization. We want the guy whose message really took hold when people heard it.

[dsc]

1. I have driven people to the polls every election since 1988

this is hardly the unusual thing you are making it out to be.

[AP]

3. My point is, if Dean wins with falling numbers but drivers, and Edwards

proves that the more people know about him the more they like him, who's the winner? The person who comes in first, or the person who proves that they just need to be seen and heard by voters?

[mzmolly]

6. Once again, we are getting the glowing portrait of John Edwards in the

media right now. Dean could win by 90% and people will bitch.

Edwards has yet to face ANY scrutiny in the media, if Dean wins in spite of what he's been put through, I'd say DEAN IS THE WINNER!

[AP]

36. Glowing portrait of Edwards: they admit he exists and is a contender.

They've ignored him for months and now they say his name. My question: why'd they ignore him for months? That people love him now seems to suggest the media's WAAAAYYYY behind the curve on this story.

[spooky3]

50. I agree with you, AP.

[creativelcro]

54. Absolutely... Dean is still up there DESPITE all the grilling

by 8 candidates and the media. Edwards has not seen anything yet.

[NewHampster]

7. I already have the day off and town maps ready

its actually a hoot to drive someone elses grandma to the polls. the stories you hear about walking through a blizzard to vote for so and so or the ranting about the young people who forsake their right to vote.

As for Edwards. Isn't he really just running for veep anyways?

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NewHampster]

18. my apologies

i was listening to FOX slam Dean and tout Edwards just as I replied. they are really trying to kill dean and thats what is really rude.

[AP]

37. I hear this said alot, but I haven't seen it myself.

Where's all this "bad" coverage of Dean? What's all this glowing coverage of Edwards?

[stickdog]

44. Go to news.google.com.

Type in "Howard Dean".

Then type in "John Edwards".

[Sensitivity]

34. Trippi said what we are able to do is way beyound anything before

[bearfartinthewoods]

53. do you remember the MASSIVE publicity campaign that launched

the "new coca-cola"

it wouldn't surprise me if no one does since the product didn't last long. the people tried it but found they didn't like it. a massive ad campaign and massive support isn't needed if you offer a likeable
candidate.

[sampratt]

47. Can a chat site predict the outcome of Iowa?

Here's another take on the question of polling: What happens if 250+ web denizens post their predictions on the eve of the caucuses -- and a prediction is made based on the aggregate of their posts?

That's what I've done, based on over 250 posts at the Daily KOS.

The results are at:

http://hudson.typepad.com

In brief: Dean wins with nearly 28%, and Kerry edges Gephardt, both around 22%.

KOS readers predict an 11.5% turnout. We'll see how accurate a chat site can be.

[spooky3]

51. Welcome to DU, Sampratt, and thanks.

[Philosophy]

2. Is this not Dean's first primary too?

And I don't see how lack of enough support to have a large ground organization means that Edwards really has more support.

[AP]

4. He has 40 mil, and has been the favorite for months. People got behind him

before they could compare messages. Now his message doesn't seem like it's the most powerful message, and it doesn't look like the more people who hear it, the more support he gets. It looks like he tapped out the hardcore support and even some of that is floating away when they hear other candidates.

[mlawson]

9. It might be 'message' to some voters, but here it might be a lot

of personality, determination, and other criteria. The distinctions between Dean and Edwards in their minds might be very subtle.

I am wondering if at some basic level, it's a battle of charisma.

[Jerseycoa]

23. Charisma

They both have it, but the appeal is to different sets of folks. Edwards is a personable guy and has shown that when people get to see him and hear his ideas, they like him. It happened to me watching him stump in Oklahoma on TV, so I can imagine how compelling he can be in person.

[mlawson]

5. As I have said many times, it really does matter who

the DNC/DLC thinks was the winner. And it also very much matters which one they wanted to win. I am not convinced that winning in November is the top priority among the power brokers; just ask Gary Hart (in 1984)...

If the results on Monday match your scenario, I suspect the national party will hold back and see what happens in NH and MI. Or, they might go ahead and do exactly what they have planned to do for months.

[NewHampster]

12. sounds like the stop Dean for Hillary thing

Rumors are rampant in NH that Bill and Hill want Bush to win and open the way for Hillary in '08.

I don't believe them though since those are my two heroes and they wouldn't do something so under handed.

[mlawson]

15. I was thinking more along the lines of business as usual politics.

Such as, who has the most political chits to cash in? Or even, whose TURN is it this time to get nominated??

Winning?? Well, yeah, that would be nice, but...

[WiseMen]

40. And what is that?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

8. That doesn't make sense

Dean isn't going to win because he personally is driving people to the caucus, he may win because he has legions of supporters willing to travel to Iowa to drive Iowans to the caucuses. That does prove something very important.

But I don't want to take away from Edwards, he's doing fantastic in Iowa.

[WI_DEM]

10. there is nothing wrong with a strong organization

and it is more than Dean driving people to the polls. Dean supporters will vote because they want to. If we do end up driving people who maybe don't have a car or are elderly or are disabled or live in the country--so be it.

[AP]

38. I'm commenting on a quote I heard from Trippi which was along the lines

of, Don't worry if we're slipping in the polls -- we have 5,000 volunteers, babysitters and drivers arranged for people. What they're arguing is that coming is first is the victory. I think that's not what the big donors and party leaders are looking for. They're looking for the person whose message the most people love. If they were looking for the former, Pat Robertson would be president.

[stickdog]

45. Personally, I really don't care too much about bigwig donors and

the party leaders who've "led" the party into the triple minority, Bush enabling state it's in today.

I'm a regular person who is proud Democrat and I'm ready to fight for myself and my party. And there are a lot of people just like me, and we're doing a pretty good job on own own so far considering that the bigwigs are doing everything they can to stop us.

[arewethereyet]

13. Edwards has turned heads and without big money

if he comes in 2nd or even 3rd, he's the winner.

If Dean fails to win, it hurts a lot.
If Gephardt fails to win, its over.
If Kerry fails to win and isn't 3rd or 4th, he's viable again.

[maddezmom]

16. you're right he is turning heads

if he's close to the others it will be a win in IA. He's been creeping up in most polls I've read.

[arewethereyet]

17. yes he is and if he does well he'll jump a lot

much moreso that the other three could.

[stickdog]

46. How much money has Edwards spent in Iowa? (nt)

[Adjoran]

14. The "winner" is the one who does "better than expected"

It's been that way for years, ever since McCarthy won a surprising 36% against LBJ in NH 1968. All the coverage was McCarthy on the move, big surprise, what's going on? LBJ withdrew from the race after winning the first primary with over 60% of the vote!

Gephardt needs to win outright, because he hasn't any money left and needs something to motivate donors. Dean needs to come in a close second if he doesn't win, to avoid the impression that he's in a tailspin after the missteps of the last month. But if he wins, he gets his momentum at least partly back.

Kerry or Edwards in second place, in contrast, will be a big story. Edwards would even get a bounce from a close third.

"The Expectations Game" is more important than the raw results in these early contests.

[BobbyJay]

20. Exactly

[BobbyJay]

19. If Edwards finishes anywhere in the top 3 it will be seen as a victory

A huge one IMO.

[mlawson]

21. Yes. Isn't that how Clinton did it, in 1992???

Because this scenario seems so familiar. I never doubted that Clinton would win the nomination, and the WH, BTW, never.

Edwards, if he gets nominated, he beats bush, I have no doubt.

[citizen snips]

22. I hope it goes that way.

n/t.

[arewethereyet]

24. gee, and they both have accents too ! And dems with accents win !

maybe it was just smart to lay back and save the cash and let the others beat themselves silly.

Can you say "President Edwards" ?

[citizen snips]

25. That does sound good.

Can you say "2004 president John Edwards"!!!

[Vote2004]

26. Personally.........

I am for Sharpton/Lieberman, but haven't heard anything about that here. Don't you think it's time to finally have a black president in this country to make up for all the wrong that was done to them?

Guess some of you find this guy laughable or otherwise, but I think Al Sharpton will make a great candidate against Bush and with Lieberman at his side, he will bring in votes from the blacks and jews, etc. No?

[many a good man]

29. They'd make a great comedy team, at least!

Joe would be great as second banana! I'd vote for 'em as a mid-season replacement.

[Vote2004]

30. Comedy team?

Well, okay, I was sincere in offering my opinion but you are laughing at me and my choice(s).

[many a good man]

31. I apologize

I'm sorry, but you have to admit they both have a great sense of humor. And zero chance of actually getting elected (imho).

I also think we'll have to do better than Al if we really want to put the first African-American man in the White house...

[izzie]

27. Edward is a class act. I like him more all the time.

n/t

[Vote2004]

28. Edward seems civil

and classy compared to some of the candidates anymore.

[beaconess]

32. Did you see him on CSpan today?

A reporter wanted to interview him but her cameraman was nowhere around. So Edwards waited patiently, chatting with her and the supporters gathered around (is he the only politician left on earth who can say, "Hey, Darlin'" to a stranger and not sound offensive?) asking if his little boy had made it onto the bus, etc. The reporter kept apologizing for holding him up and he kept saying, "No problem, that's ok."

Not a big thing, but I thought it was very interesting seeing how polite and kind he was.

[Cheswick2.0]

33. no

the person with the most votes wins.

[AP]

39. Like Pat Robertson and Jesse Jackson?

[DjTj]

35. Expectations game...

Winners:
Edwards "wins" if he finishes 3rd...
Kerry "wins" if he finishes 1st...
Dean "wins" if he finishes 1st...
Gephardt "wins" if he finishes 1st...

Losers:
Edwards "loses" if he finishes 5th...
Kerry "loses" if he finishes 4th...
Dean "loses" if he finishes 3rd...
Gephardt "loses" if he finishes 2nd...

Basically, Edwards has no expectations. Kerry was expected to be 3rd but now people may be expecting 2nd. Dean was always expected to be 1st or 2nd to maintain frontrunner status. This was Gephardt's must win so he, um, must win.

[spooky3]

52. I think you are right.

[Eloriel]

41. Even pollsters say that their polls in IA don't mean much

re the caucus (tho they would if it were a primary) -- why are you even asking this question?

The caucuses are specifically -- and apparently, intentionally -- set up this way. The polls mean NOTHING: who gets there and participates are the determinants.

You may not like it, but that's the way it works. I'm sure you can make suggestions to the IA Dem party if you feel that the way it's set up is unfair somehow. You can tell them you agree with what Dean said in the 1990s -- that special interests (like union members) who can get out the vote dominate. :-)

[SheilaT]

42. The Dean campaign may very well be able to get

every American a babysitter and ride to the polls in November, if that's what's needed.

Yesterday when I was in Des Moines helping out with the campaign, I listened to one staffer arrange for a van to transport an obese, wheelchair bound vet to his caucus.

And we were making notes about people who were expressing problems about childcare, although we couldn't make promises about getting a babysitter. But I expect at least some will be provided.

You have no idea of the number of Dean volunteers that are in Iowa and how much they are doing.

[stickdog]

43. Yes. Edwards' complete lack of organization is a huge plus!

And that vague positive message thingie Edwards does plays well to voters who are barely engaged politically.

[beaconess]

48. Obviously it's working - he's ahead of YOUR guy in the latest poll!

[stickdog]

49. I must have this wrong

because I thought the object was to win the caucuses, not come in second in a single newspaper poll.

[quaker bill]

55. Wrong.

This is why Dean is working and steadily making progress toward the goal of 2 million volunteers.

It is because he understands that the most compelling message on the planet is useless if you don't get your people to the polls.

[creativelcro]

56. And that is a crucial fact. People who feel strongly about a message

WILL GO to the polls. Those who just cheer but know it's the usual BS won't go to the polls in the end.

[bitchkitty]

57. Will national Dems be mad if Dean wins?

No, I don't think so. If he has more ground support, it would follow that he has more supporters. His campaign is largely funded by his supporters, something largely unprecedented. I think that people nationwide are impressed with the fervor and enthusiasm of Dean's supporters and the man himself, and their numbers will grow.

I like John Edwards, and if he had a better campaign and more money he could probably win. And I have to say, he's really fine.