Iowa: Potential Winners and Losers (oh... and GEPHARDT's dead meat)

[liberalpragmatist]

Okay, so it's notoriously difficult to predict Iowa, but here's what I think will happen:

1. Kerry
2. Dean
3. Edwards
4. Gephardt

All will be closely bunched, and the outcome won't be entirely certain (see William Saletan's piece in Slate for explanation). But I think first will be either Kerry or Dean, with the other probably being in second. Edwards or Gephardt will be either fourth, third, or second, probably not first.

Gephardt's the one who at the moment is, I think, dead meat. It's striking how quickly his fortunes have turned. Just two weeks ago -- make that LESS than two weeks ago, more like ONE week ago, he was seen as one of the top 3 candidates overall, second only to Clark as a potential stop-Dean candidate. He was running right behind Dean in Iowa, and he'd gotten Clyburn's endorsement in SC.

Oh, and IF he pulls a trick out of hat come Monday night, I'll eat my words.

At this point, he's not gonna make it, and'll have to drop out after Iowa. If he endorses, I think he'll endorse Edwards.

Edwards is a winner so long as he's not in 4th. 4th would probably not hurt him, but it may not give him a tremendous boost. Any other position, though, will be a major coup.

Dean needs either a first or second, and I suspect that he'll get it. If he loses to Kerry, that suddenly will hurt Clark badly and NH could very likely (though not certainly) turn back into a close Kerry-Dean struggle. My guess is that Dean can still make it out of there well, and, despairing Dean supporters, I'll give you some encouragement. Dean is still the person who has the largest national structure and who I, objectively, think will be the nominee, though it will only be after a major battle.

As for Kerry, he needs now a first or second. At this point, less than that will be a loss. He'll need to quickly bolt up to NH to use his "big mo" to try and win it. If he loses NH, he's probably finished.

So there you have it.

[Democrats unite]

1. Here are some prediction threads, kind of neat to keep track of them

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=122101

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=77987

[liberalpragmatist]

2. Er... Well if this is a dupe then I should change the subject slightly

Will do.

[MoonRiver]

3. Kerry, Gephardt, Dean, Edwards

[Name removed]

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[Donovan_McNabb]

4. double post

oops

[mmonk]

8. This post isn't quite on subject, but

see ya on Sunday, Donovan. My Panthers are coming to town. Now, back to the predictions, I just don't know. I do predict that if Gephardt doesn't place in the top two, it will be a fatal blow to his campaign.

[mmonk]

5. Make or break

for Gep. Position jockeying for everyone else. There are going to be many stories this primary season.

[Rooktoven]

6. Oh what the hell...

My predictions:

1. Edwards (Here's your comeback kid)
2. Kerry (Great showing, still in NH hunt)
3. Dean (Wounded, but can absorb it)
4. Gephardt (Withdraws. Supports Edwards or Kerry)

[Democrats unite]

7. Was not infering the was a dupe...

Just wanted to add those so people can see how early predictions can come back to haunt them.

[BobbyJay]

9. 1)Gephardt 2)Edwards 3)Dean 4)Kerry would be MONSTER for Clark

[beaconess]

10. I think Edwards wins no matter what

Even if he comes in 4th, the past week has catapulted him into the public eye and led many voters to take a good look at him and they like what they see. He wasn't expected to make any showing in Iowa, but now he will be taken more seriously as they move into NH and SC. This has given his campaign a real boost.