How Many Votes are Realistically in Play in Ohio?

[On the Road]

The margin now is about 120,000 out of about 5,000,000. That's about 0.25%. Now, how can Kerry make that up?

Let's say there are 150,000 provisional ballots and Kerry wins 2/3 of them. That cuts the lead to 70,000. Let's say there are 250,000 (a very high number) and Kerry wins 2/3. That cuts the edge to 20,000, although that's a long shot.

But there are also absentee ballots in the mail, no? Those could provide another source of gains.

And no one has mentioned the R word yet. I'm sure if it gets into this range, Kerry would seek a statewide recount. Gore picked up less than a thousand, but we all know the problems there.

The point is, how likely are all these sources to make up the 120,000? Anyone likely to venture an estimate?

[jean]

1. Turley, constitutional lawyer on CBS said that Ohio has MANY soft

targets to litigate - and (the equivalent of) two army divisions of lawyers are going to Ohio NOW. It won't just be about the provisional ballots, according to Turley.

[pk_du]

2. Doesnt this margin mean automatic recount?

[Zuni]

3. Apparently, there are not only votes but irregularities

This is going to be big.

[LiberteToujours]

4. 2/3 is a LOT

I would be feeling a lot more confident if the margin was about 100,000 votes smaller... but we'll see how it plays out.

[Must_B_Free]

5. most ALL are due to the challenges

republicans know that and are trying to say that most of them aren't going to be valid

[pk_du]

9. Yup...they just told Schieffer they aer SURE that only about 30K

of the provisionals are valid.,........"count all the votes" - "as long as their ours"

[seraph]

6. Simple: Several hundred thousand. (nt)

[gcomeau]

7. All of them.

With the discrepency between the exit polls and the vote count totals they should have clear grounds for demanding a closely monitered state-wide recount and a serious inspection of the voting machines.

And they should settle for nothing less.

-Grant

[Guaranteed]

8. They're due to the REPUBLICANS CHALLENGING OUR VOTERS.

So, potentially, almost ALL of them could be for Kerry.

[Shadow30]

10. Ohio looks like a mess...

...this thing is going to go on for days and days.