ARG: Dean's support eroding among independents

[Feanorcurufinwe]

As his wide lead eroded in the New Hampshire polls, front runner Howard Dean also slipped 21 points in one week among independent registered voters in the a poll released today by the American Research Group. More than anything independents, or undeclared voters, are leaning toward an electable candidate.

“They like the major candidates: Dean, Kerry, and think Edwards is okay but they really want someone who can beat George W. Bush,” ARG pollster Dick Bennett said. The dip may reflect the fact that Dean appears a little bit less like that candidate.

“It seems all the attacks on Dean are having an effect. Dean is still in play but they’re doing a lot of shopping around looking for an alternative to Dean,” said Dante Scala , associate professor of politics at Saint Anselm College.

<snip>

As the race crystallizes after the Iowa caucus, the Dean alternative will more clearly begin to emerge and sway the independent voter, Scala said. “Iowa will determine who’s a viable alternative to Dean. If someone’s choosing between Clark and Kerry they may be more willing to move to Kerry if he does well in Iowa .”
http://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2004/january/1_17poll.shtml

[AP]

1. I'm starting to understand the agressiveness of the "Dean...

...is the inevitable winner, so all other candidates lay down your swords now!" style of candidates advocacy from Dean's camp that dominated in 2003.

It was because he wasn't inevitable.

I think they must have know that if it got this far without the good candidates dropping out that exactly this sort of thing would have happend.d

[GalleryGod]

2. Hey! Your Man Edwards Seems to be "Wearing Well" in Iowa!

:loveya: Everyone should give him a 2nd Look.

I'm convinced HE runs a better national race against Bush than Dean.

[spooky3]

8. I think you're right about that, GalleryGod, but I think

Dean deserves a LOT of credit for speaking out when none of the Democrats felt they could do so. He showed them the way. I think a LOT of the criticism has been unfair to him.

[bhunt70]

3. Glass Cannon

well not necesarily that extreme, more of the ole' "best defense is a good offense" although it seems Howard Dean has a bit of a glass jaw.

[Eloriel]

11. Got a link to show that was from "the Dean camp"

Otherwise, it's an unsupported assertion.

The MEDIA hyped it that way (and not even for all of 2003, just a few weeks toward the end), but never, ever did the Dean campaign hawk that idea.

So I'll be interested in seeing your link.

[sangha]

15. I have numerous links

to Dean supporters on DU saying that Dean's victory was inevitable.

[Maddy McCall]

13. It was image and not substance.

When his substance was exposed (the damnable tax plan for example), then he gave pundits and politicos something to criticize. He exposed his flank and they did what ANYONE would do--they got 'im.

[blm]

20. good point.

.

[DemBones DemBones]

4. WIll there be a debate after Iowa & before NH?

Or, when is another debate scheduled?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. I don't know... anyone?

[KittyWampus]

6. This Thursday, NO?

[Kathleen04]

9. Yeah, thursday..

but I haven't read any info on time or channel..

[Renew Deal]

7. Yes

I just don't know when.

[mzmolly]

10. "It seems all the attacks on Dean are having an effect..."

Yup, that was the plan. :hi: Wonder who's next :shrug:

Perhaps an ABK or ABC or ABE movement will crop up?

[Maddy McCall]

12. That's primary politics...

nothing new, nothing novel, and Dean is not a "victim." All high-profile candidates now and in the past have experienced it. No big deal. Don't take it personally. :-)

[mzmolly]

14. I dont take it personally, I simply made an observation that Dean has

been beat up on by the media more than any other candidate. The media also makes that observation *heard them do so several times today* The good news is, Dean still stands strong in the national polls. That is a success I dont think many candidates can claim.

I look forward to sharing the media spotlight/scrutiny with the others. We'll see who's prepared to deal with it as well as Dean has.

Dean is being prepared for the Presidency, I can take it :hi:

[blm]

18. That media "study" was generated by Scaife.

Dean has only received closer scrutiny over the last couple months.

[mzmolly]

21. So what, it doesn't make the results null and void.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=716&e=5&u=/ap/20040116/ap_on_el_pr/tv_news_democrats

It's obvious to anyone that watches the news that Dean has been the victim of negative press.

This same group found Faux news to be more pro-war then ABC.

[WI_DEM]

16. looking like we are back to square one

in NH, Dean needs to beat Kerry as Kerry is going to leap-frog over Clark soon and it will come down to a race between Dean and Kerry for first place.

Interestingly it appears that Dean's core support is more solid than either Kerry's or Clark's in NH. Today's ARG tracking poll gave Dean a 28-20-19 lead over Clark and Gephardt, but among these same voters those who are strongly supportive Dean leads by 2-1, 23-11-10 over Clark and Kerry.

[wyldwolf]

17. believe it!

[TexasSissy]

19. I don't think the loss is because of "attacks." I think it's because

the voters have gotten up close and personal with the candidates. I saw the Kerry and Edwards rallies on TV. They were positive and uplifting, visions for the country, that sort of thing. I think the voters are responding to that. Just my impressions of the candidates themselves, rather than the campaigns.