Who will drop out of the race next?

[coloradodem2005]

My guesses are either Sharpton, Kucinich or Lieberman. Though, I will probably go with Sharpton.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. Gephardt

Sharpton is in at least till after SC, Lieberman till after NH, Kucinich at leat till his filing deadline for running for reelection.

I'm going out on a limb an saying Gephardt will bow out tomorrow night when the results come in instead of waiting for the next day or NH.

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. I say Gephardt.

If he doesn't win Iowa, he has nowhere to go but down.

[Toronto Ron]

3. Lieberman, maybe Gep

Liberman is gone after NH; Gep out after Iowa unless he wins or a close 2nd. Word is Kucinich will stick around a while longer, and Sharpton will definitely stay for South Carolina.

[mlawson]

45. Did Lieberman even participate in Iowa??

I don't think so, though I might be wrong. No, I think Gephardt will drop out quickly; there is nothing left fot him after Iowa.

BTW, welcome, fellow NC DUer!!!

[DaisyUCSB]

4. I predict Sharpton will endorse a candidate right before South Carolina

I don't think he could make a bigger effect than that in this race, by throwing his support and supporters to a candidate

[onehandle]

5. Bush.

He's on the ropes against our candidates of substance.

[ChrisNYC]

6. I don't think DK will go anywhere

He's on a mission and I think will still be campaigning at the convention. Hell, his supporters still honestly believe he's going to win.

[Nashyra]

8. My guess is DK will stay in

and I don't think he will be doing the Democrats any favors by doing so. Clark, Dean, Gephart and Kerry are a very good representation of the Democratic party. Sorry DK supporters, but DK can have tremendous value in the house.

[dawgman]

9. DK is our one opportunity to get away from a corporate bullshit party

DK is my last chance to be a Dem. If he doesn't get the nomination I will leave the party after the 2004 ballot. There just really isn't much else in the party that makes it worth sticking around.

[hippywife]

10. Then the Dems are lost

because he is the only true Dem with the heart of what the party is supposed to stand for as his focus. He's the only one who I find even remotely like a public servant and not an everyday run of the mill politician.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. I think you are giving too little credit

to several of our candidates, and I hope, if one of them becomes President, they'll be able to change your mind.

Peace.

[dawgman]

15. All of the other "serious" candidates are rich white men with deep ties

to the "establishment" they'll just put a slightly kinder gentler face on the frightening direction our country and indeed the world are heading.

[PinkTiger]

39. All electable candidates are, unfortunately, rich white men.

I don't feel this disqualifies them from being democrats. On the contrary. Many "rich white men" have been exemplary democrats. John and Robert Kennedy. Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Those without such insulation (money and prestige) often suffer for the lack: Bill Clinton. Jimmy Carter. Harry Truman.

Dennis Kucinich is not well-known outside his poltical base, and this has hurt him. Also, his name is hard to pronounce, and I hate to say it, but that hasn't helped.

[dawgman]

43. Bullshit, all electable candidates are rich and white

There is a reason the majority of the country doesn't even vote in presidential elections. I believe that the apathy of the American voter can be traced to the idea that it doesn't make a difference. This stems from the fact that the choices are so similar as to be nearly indistiguishable from each other. Give the majority of Americans something to pay attention to, give them something different and I think you would see a huge jump in the number of people voting.

Electability is an effing myth. Who is more electable than someone who ACTUALLY represents the people for a change?

[Renew Deal]

7. Gephardt, Maybe Lieberman

If Lieberman is crushed in NH.

[knight_of_the_star]

22. I wouldn't say if

More like when.

[adadem]

11. If Gephardt

comes in third or fourth or worse tommorrow then he's out. Little $$ left.

[Padraig18]

12. Gepharst, maybe Lieberman.

If Gephardt doesn't win Iowa, he's done. If Lieberman doesn't do well in NH, he's done. The question is who will go first.

[calimary]

14. The other question is - when will either of them be willing to face it,

if that's what happens (and I'm guessing that IS what will happen). Gephardt will probably try to hang on, especially if he can spin a respectable finish - WHATEVER it might really end up being - in Iowa. He won't give in, easy. Lieberman's already an also-ran, but he doesn't realize it yet. But he isn't gonna go anywhere. He hasn't caught fire anywhere. He's still back in the pack. In fact, I wish Lieberman would be the next one to check out. Save himself, and the rest of us, a lot of unnecessary embarrassment.

[lancdem]

16. I say Gephardt

Because he absolutely must win Iowa. The most recent poll I saw (Des Moines Register) has him in fourth place.

[Toucano]

17. Gephardt first

He'll endorse Clark. Lieberman next. He'll endorse Kerry.

The idea of Sharpton dropping out before SC is interesting, but I think he'll stay in.

[mobuto]

19. Sharpton has the low country

and you should never underestimate him, but he's really not much of a threat in SC. African Americans (the only core dem constituency in SC) aren't stupid and won't generally waste their votes on someone who's unelectable. If he's lucky he'll get 15% of the vote, but I'm guessing that's going to fall off to around 10%. Regardless of whether he's in, the race in SC is down to Dean and Clark with Edwards running a somewhat-distant third.

[Jerseycoa]

31. Why do you think

Gephardt would endorse Clark over Kerry or Edwards?

[mobuto]

18. My analysis

My guess is Dean will win Iowa, although its conceivable now that Kerry might (but my money's still on Dean). Gephardt will be finished - he has no organization at all outside of Missouri and Iowa. The smart money right now is that he'll endorse Clark.

Kerry may also soon bow out unless he can quickly build a lot of momentum. He now has a great campaign staff (after having jack for a long long time), but he has nothing at all outside of Iowa and NH and even if he somehow manages to win both, which isn't at all likely, he's not looking good anywhere else. My guess is that he'll endorse Clark too.

Edwards - Edwards also has some rather severe organization problems. If he doesn't win South Carolina on February 3 (something he's not likely to do unless events shift dramatically), he's a gonner. And he's definitely going to endorse Dean.

I don't know what Lieberman's trying to accomplish by staying in the race, and since I don't know what he's doing I can't say when he'll drop out. And I don't want to even try to predict the actions of a Sharpton or a Kucinich.

The race comes down to Clark and Dean anyway you look at it. They're the only two national candidates. They have money, organization up the wazoo, and broadly appeal to Democratic voters. I'd have to give the edge to Clark, despite the fact that Dean's run what's maybe the best organized Presidential campaign in history - because it sure looks like Clark's going to clean up on February 3 and take Arizona, South Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Missouri (the last one only if Gephardt's dropped out). Dean will maybe take Delaware.

[beaconess]

20. Why do you think that Edwards will definitely endorse Dean if he drops out

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

21. I do not see Gephardt endorsing Clark

Next to Gep, Dean has the largest support among organized labor. The obvious choice would be to endorse Dean.

[Toucano]

28. I don't have a crystal ball

But I think there are some factors other than the union endorsements we should consider.

1. Gephardt has been extremely critical of Dean. He'd look foolish saying, "Just kidding! Howard's the man!"

2. Geographically, Missouri is close to Arkansas. I think Gephardt might see the value of his endorsement helping Clark more than Dean.

3. Gephardt is allied with Clinton. Dean is not. Clinton is allied with Clark.

It's just speculation, of course.

[no name no slogan]

34. If Geph and or Liebermann drops, don't expect endorsements right away

It's actually very rare for a candidate to drop out of the primary race and endorse a previous opponent during the primary season.

I was suprised that CMB endorsed Dean so quickly-- normally, a candidate will hold off until there's a clear victor. Maybe that's why it seems so seedy that she's getting her expenses covered to go around stumping for Dean.

[mobuto]

49. Maybe not from Lieberman

but Gephardt pretty much has to. He has very little actual power left. Candidates will value his endorsement if given sometime in the next week or so. Afterwards, who cares? He won't be able to deliver. And if he can't give anything, then the whoever he endorses won't feel obligated to give anything back to Gephardt in return. His career will simply be over and the man will be forgotten.

[mobuto]

29. That's about to change

Gephardt and the non-Dean unions are really going to endorse Clark. If Gephardt's unions had wanted to support Dean, they would have done so by now. Also, as Dralston pointed out, there's really too much animosity between the Dean and Gephardt camps for there to be an easy reconciliation.

[salin]

40. I would agree... but throw in a wild-card factor...

Gephardt has already given up a lot. It is not clear whether he stepped down from minority leader to run for president, or if that was the 'excuse' and he stepped down because his role as leader was growing weaker after the poor house race showing in the midterm elections. If he gets out of the race early, his days as a big power player/power broker... could be over. And he has been in a position of power - to one extent or another since he was viewed as a bright/climbing star in the House in the mid 1980s. I don't think he is going to let go of everything so quickly. My guess is that he will a) go for who he believes will be the ultimate winner (could be either - but see how the early primaries go before guessing)... and b) if it is close - go for where he thinks he will be able to have a 'power player' position (be it in a cabinet or elsewhere).

IMO, more than anyone else in the race, Gephardt shot the moon (in old hearts lingo) and has risked his career and given up his power to do so. I believe that an eye on HIS political future will play into his decision on who to endorse.

[mobuto]

48. Gephardt's only card

is Missouri, on February 3. Labor will go over to Clark regardless of what Gephardt does, when he loses tomorrow. If Gephardt wants to remain relevant, he'll drop out and deliver Missouri to either Clark or Dean (although I'm confident it'll be Clark). Because if he goes on fighting to the end, he'll get absolutely nothing. After February 3, what will he have to offer? He's unpopular nationally, has no organization outside of Iowa and Missouri. He'd just be humiliating himself. Maybe if he drops out Tuesday he'll get something in return. But come March or later and he's still in the race, then he'll just be a fringe candidate of no consequence to anybody.

[mobuto]

25. Why?

I think Edwards may see himself as Dean's Vice President (although I don't think Dean sees the same thing). I can tell you, working for a rival campaign, that we've seen a lot of recent cooperation between the two camps. You can never know for sure, but I'd really be surprised if Edwards endorsed anybody other than Dean.

[Jerseycoa]

32. Man, that's a team I cannot see nt

[DjTj]

27. What severe organizational problems?

...What are the problems that you see with Edwards' organization in South Carolina. It seems like he has thrown a lot of resources at that state in general and he had a lot of cash.

[mobuto]

30. He's been in SC forever

but his offices are understaffed and disorganized. He doesn't seem to have the money to pull off much of anything, and he's not polling well. Its odd because you'd think SC would be Edwards' easy, but he's seem to have lost much of his supporters to Clark. Now you've got to be careful - my guess is that a bunch of undecideds will go over to Edwards in the next week or so, but he's really been stalled here thanks to his commitment to campaign in Iowa and NH.

[DjTj]

36. I think he just found his message...

...in the past few weeks. He never got the early grass-roots or party insider support that other candidates got and he's had to take his message to the people.

I think he'll pick up a lot more supporters after Iowa and you'll see volunteers coming into South Carolina. He seems very capable of making a last-minute push.

[mlawson]

44. ??? Edwards will not be dropping out.

He will give the nominee's acceptance speech at Boston in July (or is it August?). And it will rival that of Bill Clinton in 1992.

[mobuto]

46. Really?

I appreciate your support for your candidate, but I think the numbers disagree.

[morgan2]

23. dick or joe..

depending on the results of iowa for dick. Lieberman will most likely be gone after the early feb primaries.

[Eurobabe]

24. Lieberman

n/t

[AntiCoup2K4]

26. My predictions

Gephardt will drop out Tuesday morning after a poor showing in Iowa. Liberman will bow out after New Hampshire. Sharpton will be out after Feb 7. Edwards will give up if he deos poorly in South Carolina. Kerry will stay in the race regardless of results just to be a thorn in Dean and/or Clark's sides.

[WI_DEM]

33. if the polls are correct

and Gep comes in third or worst, he will withdrawl. He has nowhere to go without an Iowa victory and no $$ to campaign on.

[SadEagle]

42. Well, there is always Missouri.

It's a February 3rd state, IIRC, although I don't see what it would get him beyond a few delegates..

[Cascadian]

35. Probably Gephardt

If cannot win the caucus in a state that neighbors Missouri then he is done. I hope he will back Dean after he does pull out. It will give Howard a possible endorsement from labor.


John

[jadesfire]

52. What is the thinking behind Gephardt endorsing Dean?

When in this campaign has either candidate said one nice thing about the other one? When in this campaign has either candidate expressed understanding, civility, respect, or agreement on any issue? Dean stood with Gingrech in '94 against Gephardts legislation. The only thing they have EVER even come close to agreement on is cutting all of Bush's tax cuts.

There is absolutly NO WAY that Geppy would EVER endorse Dean. Edwards or Kerry; maybe, but never Dean.

[Th1onein]

37. Sharpton and Gephardt

[mot78]

38. Gephardt if he loses Iowa

[Lydia Leftcoast]

41. Based on what I heard yesterday while canvassing

Gephardt or Lieberman.

Sharpton seems to be in the race mostly to stir things up, so he doesn't have to win any states to stay in.

Kucinich has no campaign debts and enough loyal supporters to keep him going for a long time.

[Bucky]

47. In this order: Gephardt, Lieberman, Kucinich, Sharpton,

Gephardt - after New Hampshire, maybe endorsing Kerry
Lieberman - after South Carolina, also may lean toward Kerry
Kucinich - after Wisconsin, will not endorse
Sharpton - (a wild card), may just stick it out to the convention, but may jump after South Carolina and throw it to Clark or Edwards

Clark & Edwards are feeding off each other. If one doesn't tank soon, they'll both lose. I'd guess very quiet endorsement to whoever of the two doesn't drop. It will be after Wisconsin, but before Super Tuesday

Hmmm, no Dean endorsements. Maybe if he regains big mo he'll get one

[rhite5]

50. Kucinich will still be in the race at convention time

No question about it. If you are truly following the campaign, you just know it.

[wholeworld]

53. hahah

they don't call him dennis the menace for nuthin.

[Zech Marquis]

51. I think Liberman

up until thi past week, he was placing like 3rd or 2nd in some of the Iowa polls. Nowno one' even metioning his name, as Kerry and Edward have indeed surged. Even Gephart is looking stronger--although I disagree with quite a few things he's done rcently, I do appreciate seeing him develop some fire in his belly. Liberman's not even on tv anymore, how can he expect people to join him if he's nowhere to be seen? :shrug:


Why the Kerry/Edwards/Gep surges? Deam has been getting more endorsements, but at the same time he hasn't gone beyond his first impression--which I like alot, but he has to show more than just his angry side. Kerry to me comes across as a proud warrior, Edwards as the fresh face of optimism, and Gep (!) sounds like the working man type. So I do want Dean to develop more, because the the big 3 aren't going to just lay down and let him walk away with the nomination now.

[flaminbats]

54. I think Sharpton and Kucinich are in this race to promote an agenda.

They will probably stick this out until the end. My guess is that either Edwards or Kerry will be the next to go. Undecided voters frequently confuse the two, and they are both pulling support from the same political base..vets, moderates, and anti-Dean Democrats who supported the war.

When Wesley Clark is added in as a factor, then it seems certain that either Kerry or Edwards shall be the next to dropout. Lieberman and Gephardt can both stick it out a little longer due to their name recognition and broader base of support.

[Endangered Specie]

55. If Gephardt loses Iowa...

Definetly him, he has virtually nothing else but Iowa.

If not that, probably Lieberman (hes already missing a couple of legs a la Gore).

I think Sharpton will stay in a little longer but Id say he's third.

Kucinich will probably drop out not too long after Feb 3

The rest will probably stay until the bitter end.

[flaminbats]

57. Why Feb. 2?

It seems more logical that if Kucinich dropped out, he would do it closer to the March primaries..and only if he was out of money and came in last for every primary.

[Khephra]

56. Gephardt