The area Dean campaign coordinator called me tonight. She said...

[Fridays Child]

...that at least one factor affecting Dean's poll numbers is the fact that a significant percentage of his supporters have cell phones, only. Thus, they're not being called for polls that rely on voters with listed phone numbers.

Could be true. Neither of my grown kids have land lines at their homes, but they both have cell phones. Is this a trend among younger adults?

[Th1onein]

1. Yes, it is a "trend."

As a former bill collector, let me tell you: it is a trend among everyone, not just the younger generation.

[vi5]

2. I could see that if his numbers were never high...

And all of a sudden out of nowhere he won the caucus or the primary.

But his entire status as the front runner is based at least in some part on polls. So if his popularity was at all gauged by polls previously and those same polls show him dropping then that group wouldn't have been included in the first place. It will explain it if he takes Iowa by a landslide. But I don't see where it has an impact on poll numbers.

[mkultra]

5. I think the point of it was

That Dean supporters are young and where active early on and that a vast majority of them had land lines but many also had cells. This would lead to high early numbers for dean but the increase in traditional participation near the close of the primaries can look like a dean lose while his actual support numbers could have grown.

Not agree or disagree. just trying to clarify

[bluestateguy]

3. Yes it is

I only have a cell phone. Many young people cannot afford 2 lines, and find it more convenient to have just a mobile line. Anyway, the cell phone only demographic is going to grow in the coming years and it will be a problem for the polling industry if they don't address it.

[bearfartinthewoods]

4. no worries...cell phone directories are just around the corner

so telemarketers can eat up your minutes.

[diamondsoul]

6. Nope. They aren't

allowed to call cell-phones. I was just reading something about that recently, so I'll see if I can dig it up for you. Supposedly it applies to telemarketers and pollsters as well.

[creativelcro]

9. Well, if they call me on my cell they have to pay for the call...

[arewethereyet]

7. it didn't seem to effect the polling until recently

try again

[ecstatic]

8. lol good point

However, most of the young folks I know (including myself) rely on cell phones as their primary means of communication. I was forced into getting a land line because I was considering DSL.

[in_cog_ni_to]

10. Just in the last week

all those supporters decided to get cell phones only? Hmmm. Interesting excuse.

[creativelcro]

12. and yet... You may have to accept it tomorrow ev...

[susanna]

11. Define younger adults...

I'm 34 and a lot of my friends in their early-to-late 30s are "cell-phone onlys." They don't see the upside to a land line considering the cost. I'm a dual, I have both, but I mostly use my cell phone only for emergencies and travel.

[Fridays Child]

15. From my perspective, young adults are 18 to 35 years old.

That's just my view, though.

[AntiCoup2K4]

13. Been without a landline for about 3 1/2 years. (Never looked back)

After a 2 year billing dispute fiasco with Qwest was finally resolved, I decided I never wanted to do business with them again. My home PC was already on a cable modem, so I had no need of a landline after that.

Best part (other than being rid of Qwest) - Not a single telemarketing call in all that time. And that means the pollsters don't call me either.

[creativelcro]

14. Yup, I have landline for DSL...

Mostly use calling cards on office phone and cell.

[quaker bill]

16. I think the larger unknown is is the 'likely to caucus' models

These models are created to be predictive under ordinary circumstances. They assume that voter behavior this time will be similar to previous elections.

The level of interest in this election is decidedly different. Bush is the largest cause of this, but it also has been an interesting campaign.

I am expecting a result that defies the polls. I have no idea who will benefit. But, I will bet this one catches the pollsters off guard.

[SheilaT]

17. I just got back from Iowa

where I was campaigning for Dean. One of the things I did was phone banking. Out of about 50 calls I tried to make, perhaps 8 people answered a phone. The vast majority of times I reached an answering machine. The other times I got a disconnected number.

The people in Iowa are so phenomenally sick of all the calls from the various pollsters and campaigns that many of them are no longer answering the phone and are screening calls instead.

I think the polls these last few days are probably very, very unreliable.