Predict Iowa Results and Win

[windansea]

DU bragging rights



1. Predict the order of finish of the top 4 candidates awarded a percentage of the Iowa delegates...if you get the order of finish wrong...you cannot win the contest. Keep in mind that a percentage of delegates usually remains uncomitted...if uncomitted is in the top 4...you must include this in your prediction to win.

some past results here:
http://www.drake.edu/public/result.html

2. If you are one of the lucky few who solve Rule #1...you are in the running to win...the winner will be determined by the poster who gets the order of finish right...and comes closest to predicting the exact percentage of delegates awarded to each candidate.

3. To prevent a tie, you must predict the percentages with 2 decimals

Example: (and my first prediction)
Kerry 27.49%
Dean 23.32%
Gephart 21.09%
Edwards 18.99%

4. Post and revise as often as you like...your last post before 7:30pm EST on Monday Jan 19 will be your prediction.

Good Luck!!

:kick:

EDIT: changed deadline to 7:30pm EST as Caucus begins 6:30pm CT

[dnbmathguy]

1. Gephardt Edwards Dean Kerry

Gephardt = 27.12%
Edwards = 25.64%
Dean = 22.09%
Kerry = 21.64%

[Dookus]

2. ok...

Kerry: 28.15
Edwards: 25.77
Dean: 24.86
Gephard: 20.14

[slinkerwink]

3. Dean....33%, Kerry 29%, Edwards 23%, Gephardt 20%

[LiberalBushFan]

14. ummmm... not to be overly critical

But I hope your plan for Dean beating Bush is to let Bush take all the South to get 60% of the vote but for Dean to then take the other 65%. (add your percentages up)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. Dean supporters always give it 105%.

What else can I say? :shrug:

[windansea]

67. lol n/t

[windansea]

75. kick

[Frederic Bastiat]

122. lol with hindsight n/t

[Clark4Prez]

4. Kerry by a nose

Kerry 24.75%
Edwards 23.95%
Dean 23.25%
Gephardt 21.2%
DK 2.2%
Sharpton 1 (vote, not percent)

[Clark4Prez]

116. At least I got the order right

But, I missed the numbers by a mile.

[Jackson Smith]

5. Mine

Kerry - 29.67%
Edwards - 24.41%
Dean - 23.89%
Gephardt - 20.97%

[Melodybe]

7. Here goes

Dean 27.98%
Kerry 25.24%
Edwards 23.56%
Gephardt 20.16%

[Rowdyboy]

6. Okay

Edwards 25.9%
Kerry 24.1%
Gephart 22.8%
Dean 22.4%

Thats my story and I'm sticking to it!


on edit: Cool! I'm the first one here to predict the "Edwards Upset"!

[ProudToBeLiberal]

8. my predictions

Dean 31.11%
Gephardt 23.55%
Kerry 18.87%
Edward 16.75%

[shivaji]

105. Correct order, but it will be closer than that

:party: :toast:

[tridim]

9. Dean 35%, Edwards 20%, Kerry 18%, Gephardt 18%

Gut feeling that Dean is doing much better than the polls indicate.

Dean 35.24%
Edwards 20.48%
Kerry 18.07%
Gephardt 18.59%

[Snivi Yllom]

120. oops

not quite

[sandnsea]

10. Okay

Edwards 27.2% Kerry 26.6% Dean 25.4% Gephardt 20.8%

I keep thinking Edwards has a secret weapon we're not factoring, rural Iowa.

[Hawkeye-X]

11. Mine here...

Dean: 40.62%
Kerry: 21.22%
Edwards: 20.36%
Gephardt: 17.8%

Polls become virtually useless after that. Kerry and Clark will throw out negative ads against each other while Dean's momentum grows.

Trust me on this.

[Bucky]

16. Clark doesn't DO attack ads. He's been clear on that. Wish Dean was.

You can go after Clark on a number of valid points. But you can't go after him for attacking Democrats... especially if your candidate is Howard "the only candidate who opposed the war" Dean.

[Hawkeye-X]

36. Sure. keep him above the fray...

Just ask his buddies at Club for Growth to do it for Clark. :eyes:

[Bucky]

38. Clark's in the midst of the fray. But the fight he's in is the one vs Bush

Clark is plenty good on the attack. He rips the Bush administration a new hole each week. He's just not attacking Democrats. Why do you have a problem with that?

[Hawkeye-X]

50. Sorry. a five month old Democrat

Gives me a lot of problems. How can I know that the General is not a PNAC or DLC or even a Clinton puppet? Clark carries a lot of baggage from his past that Rove is prepared to use. Clark has no record to back up his rhetoric. Why do I find it difficult for me to trust Clark when I can see through him, and most people fawn over his four shiny stars that means shit for me? Clark has no political experience and should run for something else other than President. Maybe start as a Governor of Arkansas to start?

Hawkeye-X

[kerry-is-my-prez]

53. At least he hasn't been disparaging other Dems and ex-Presidents

(Clinton). He's making Dean look like a pretty "questionable" Dem. We could use more like Clark. Clark could unite the Party. Edwards probably could too.

And at least Kerry, Gep and Sharpton have only attacked other candidates...

[Lobo_13]

63. No, he just hires a political gremlin

to lob grenades at the other candidates from the shadows.

All so the good General can appear squeaky clean.

Clark is so far down in the mud, you can't even see him.

[windansea]

65. try to stay on topic here

this is a prediction thread!!

[Kathleen04]

12. Ok let me see..

Dean--28.22%
Gephardt--26.40%
Edwards--24.27%
Kerry-21.38%

I think that's it. I might be back to revise this. ;)

On edit: I should probably make my numbers equal 100.

*Old predictions*:

Jan 7th:

Dean: 40%
Gep: 36%
Kerry:16%

December 31st:

Gephardt: 35%
Dean: 33%
Kerry: 14%

[blackcat77]

13. Well, here goes...

Kerry 26.01
Dean 26.00
Gephardt 22.00
Edwards 21.00

Followed by much frenzy in the media and an abrupt change from "Can Dean be Stopped" to "Can Dean Recover."

And I must admit that it's going to be entertaining to have a race that isn't over and done with before the first of February.

[Darth_Ole]

18. Alrighty:

Dean 29.32
Kerry 23.12
Edwards 21.20
Gephardt 19.72

With the rest in single digits...

[LuminousX]

15. Since I'm going to be wrong, why not be optimistic

Dean 31.04
Kerry 21.68
Edwards 20.07
Gephardt 17.27

[TexasPatriot]

17. ok

Dean - %29.50
Gephardt - %23.50
Kerry - %21.40
Edwards - %19.00

i think this will demostrate that Dean's ability to marshall voters is surprising... and i think Clark will surprise the following week the same way with the independent vote in NH.

[bluestateguy]

19. My call

Dean 25%
Kerry 22%
Gephardt 19%
Edwards 18%
Kucinich 10%
Others 6%

[LiberalBushFan]

20. aight

Kerry 24.00
Edward 23.50
Dean 22.00
Gep 19.00

[Kal Belgarion]

21. Despite what the polls say...

Dean: 29.25
Gephardt: 24.45
Kerry: 21.80
Edwards: 21.50

I think Dean's vast number of dedicated troops will pull it out for him. Edwards' and Kerry's finishes are nothing to sneeze at, and both campaigns will be still showing signs of life after Monday night. Gephardt, on the other hand...

[lurk_no_more]

22. OK write this down

Kerry--28.23%

Edwards--26.40%

Gephardt--24.27%

Dean-21.37%


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[Bucky]

23. I really shouldn't since I'm tracking another prediction contest. But...

I'll even be recklessly ballsy and make a prediction even I won't believe.

Edwards 26.69%
Kerry 25.69%
Dean 24.69%
Gephart 23.13%

(please note the rules do not stipulate they have to add up to 100%)

Crap. I just spent five minutes juggling those numbers and I don't like anything. They all have great assets. Edwards has momentum and a positive message. Dean has his jillions of dedicated supporters (perhaps too many of them, that may actually have turned off some folks). Gephardt has the commitment of the working heroes, the blue collar union men and women who turn out and give a damn and who are the backbone of this party. Kerry has the gravitas and the resiliance of a man who's been a leading solon of the country for many years; people trust him.

Dude, we can't lose!

[windansea]

40. it's definitely tough to call n/t

[xultar]

24. nevermind...

I can't come up with mine just yet

[leyton]

25. Here we go

Kerry 26.78
Dean 23.45
Edwards 22.88
Gephardt 19.10

[flaminbats]

26. change the damn rule about percentages and I might attempt to rank them.

These nicely done percentages will not look anything like the final results!

[feckerman]

27. I say

Dean 32.02
Kerry 26.83
Edwards 23.02
Geppyweppy 20.08

[windansea]

32. according to the site in my OP

the results are delivered in percentages

then I guess they round them off

[Slippery_Hammer]

28. Dean 32.6%

Gephardt 23.09%
Uncommitted 12.4%
Edwards/Kerry 11.59% each

The polls and pundits have much less effect on a cacaus than they do on a primary.

The guessing will be done with tomorrow. I will post my report of how things went at my precinct after.

[arewethereyet]

29. Oh why not: JE-28 JK-28 RG-24 HD-20

and Edwards wins the rock, scissors, paper sudden death overtime

[kerry-is-my-prez]

30. mine: Dean by a hair...

Dean: 24.60
Kerry: 23.10
Gephard: 21.05
Edwards: 17.60

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. What would I win?

If it's a certain bumpersticker....

[DIBL]

33. Polls do not reflect Dean's organization

Dean: 30.5
Kerry: 24.5
Gephardt: 20.5
Edwards: 18.5

Dean will finish stronger than predicted by the polls. Kerry will come in a somewhat distant second. Edwards is surging ahead in the polls but he doesn't have the same organization on the ground as Gephardt who has Union backing. So I predict Gephardt narrowly beating Edwards for third place.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

52. Think you're right & Gep too

n/t

[idlisambar]

34. here is mine

Dean -- 30.00%
Kerry -- 23.00%
Gephardt -- 23.00%
Edwards -- 19.00%

[Leilani]

37. My Predictions:

Not in order of preference, but probability:

Dean 27%

Gephardt 23%

Kerry 22%

Edwards 20%

[frank frankly]

39. okay

Dean 25.8
Kerry 24.7
Edwards 20.1
Gephardt 19.1

[angee_is_mad]

41. here goes nothing

Kerry, Edwards, Dean and Gephardt!

[virtualobserver]

42. DEAN by a landslide

DEAN 41.10%
Gephardt 18.20%
Edwards 17.30%
Kerry 15.40
Clark 4.00
Lieberman 2.00
Kucinich 2.00

[KaraokeKarlton]

43. Dean - 36% Edwards - 24% Kerry - 21% Gephardt - 19%

That's my prediction. ;)

[Snivi Yllom]

121. back to the drawing board...

:(

[shivaji]

44. This is easy..LOL...Dean 28%, Gep 25%, Kerry 22%, JE 17%

[HFishbine]

45. Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, Edwards

Kerry: 27.40
Dean: 26.75
Gephardt: 21.10
Edwards: 19.75

[question everything]

46. OK, I'll play

Kerry 27%
Edwards 25.5%
Dean 22.5%
Gephardt 20.5%

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

47. Here goes...

Clark 95%
Kerry 02%
Edwards 02%
Gephardt 01%
Dean -40%

[milkyway]

48. Dean 34.44% Kerry 23.00% Gephardt 21.21% Edwards 19.56%

Poll results this week have been good for Dean. They have greatly lowered expectations, so now media will treat a narrow Dean win as a positive. Before, anything less than a blowout win by Dean would have been spun negatively by the media, and that's what really counts in Iowa.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

49. Here's Mine

Kerry 28.21%
Dean 26.33%
Gephardt 21.66%
Edwards 18.85%

I really hope it doesn't turn out that way, however.

DTH

[arcos]

51. Dean, Edwards, Kerry, Gephardt

Dean 26.51%
Edwards 24.23%
Kerry 23.11%
Gephardt 22.02%
others (inc. uncommited): 4.13%

[creativelcro]

54. Here is mine :)

Dean 30%
Edwards 25%
Kerry 20%
Gephardt 19%
others (inc. uncommited): 6%

[libertad]

55. Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards

Dean 26
Kerry 25
Gephardt 22
Edwards 21

[Walt Starr]

56. Here are mine

Dean - 39%
Gephardt - 28%
Edwards - 18%
Kerry 14%

[JohnLocke]

57. Edwards, Dean, Kerry, Gephardt.

Edwards 26.50%
Dean 23.50%
Gephart 22.00%
Kerry 21.00%
Undecided 7.00%

[JohnLocke]

98. Revision

Edwards 26.50%
Kerry 23.50%
DeaN 22.00%
gEPHART 21.00%
Undecided 7.00%

[Padraig18]

58. My prediction:

Gov. Howard Dean 32.62%
Sen. John Kerry 23.15%
Sen. John Edwards 19.53%
Rep. Dick Gephardt 15.71%

[windansea]

59. kick n/t

[CMT]

60. Ok, I'll take a wild guess

Dean: 28.2
Kerry: 24.0
Edwards 20.3
Gephardt 17.5

[CabalBuster]

61. Dean, Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards

Dean 35%
Gephardt 28%
Kerry 27%
Edwards 20%

[dusty64]

62. I can't even

guess the numbers so I can not win. I'm thinking it will be Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards in that order however.

[imhotep]

64. ok

Dean 27.00
Edwards 24.50
Kerry 23.00
Gephart 17.75

[windansea]

66. kick n/t

[funky_bug]

68. My 2 cents

Kerry - 31.27%
Dean - 28.66%
Edwards - 23.94%
Gephart - 16.13%
Kucinich - 0%
Sharpton - 0%
Uncommited - 0%

* based on the fact that any 'corner' at less than 15% will be persuaded to switch corners. I believe the Kucinich people will follow the "agreement" to throw their support behind Edwards, but I don't think it will be enough to surpass Dean. Likewise, the Sharpton folk will have to switch, and after the debate the other night, I doubt they'll throw their support behind Dean, and it will be split b/w Edwards and Kerry.

[Colin Ex]

69. My call

Kerry 26.25%
Gephardt 24.65%
Dean 19.55%
Edwards 17.74%

Random numbers thrown out... go me!

-C

[Snivi Yllom]

70. Dean-Kerry-Edwards-Gephardt

Dean 24%
Kerry 23%
Edwards 19%
Gephardt 17%

[cthrumatrix]

77. ditto...........

[Lydia Leftcoast]

71. Based on what I saw and heard while canvassing

Dean--25
Kerry--20
Edwards--20
Kucinich--15
Gephardt--15
Other--5

[ewagner]

72. Okay, here's mine and why

Organization is the biggest key to Iowa.

Dean and Gephardt have the strongest on-the-ground organizations. Edwards is catching up and has some momentum. Kerry is getting momentum behind him with the Vets but doesn't have the same strong organization.

Dean has very dedicated workers coming into the state from all over.

Gephardt has Union folks coming in to work from all over..

soooooooo.........

Dean..........29.95%
Gephardt......27.95%
Edwards.......24.95%
Kerry.........17.15%

Disclaimer....this is just an observation and does not reflect how I might actually vote in a caucaus or primary, nor does it intend to bash, demean, or criticize any candidate in any way.

[windansea]

73. hmmmmmmmmm

revise due to DK/Edwards deal??

[paulk]

74. prediction

kerry 29
dean 26
gephardt 19
edwards 14

[stickdog]

76. Dean 32.50%, Gephardt 22.50%, Kerry 21.30%, Edwards 18.70%

[jenk]

78. Edwards-Kerry-Gephardt-Dean

[Sly Kal]

79. Dean, Gephardt, Edwards and Kerry

Dean 30
Gephardt20
Edwards 18
Kerry 15
Others 2%

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

82. Here Goes Nuthin'

Dean: 32.72
Gep: 23.35
Kerry: 20.01
Edwards: 18.85


Obviously, I don't put much stock in the polling data. According to Dean's campaign, they have 50K committed votes already. If 150K show up to caucus, that's 33% right there. I'm enjoying this race. :)

[rhino47]

80. Kerry Dean Edwards Gebhardt

Kerry 24 Dean 23 Edwards 21 Gebhardt 17

[Cuban_Liberal]

81. Dean, Kerry, Edwards and Gephardt

Gov. Howard Dean 34.11%
Sen. John Kerry 26.88%
Sen. John Edwards 20.47%
Rep. Dick Gephardt 15.71%

[HereSince1628]

83. Undecided 20%

Dean 24%
Gephardt 23%
Kerry 18%
Edwards 15%

[Schmendrick54]

84. I'll go with Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards for $200, Bob.

At last -- my chance for fame and glory.

Dean 31.11% (= 14 out of 45 delegates.)
Kerry 26.67% (= 12 out of 45 delegates.)
Gephardt 24.44% (= 11 out of 45 delegates.)
Edwards 17.78% (= 8 out of 45 delegates.)

And though you did not ask, I predict 132,000 caucus-goers.

Regards,
Schmendrick the clairvoyant

[UrbScotty]

86. I believe you'd say that to Alex, not Bob. LOL. (nt)

[UrbScotty]

85. Here we go!

27.59%
26.38%
22.17%
20.78%

Others 3.08%

[windansea]

87. kick

[David Dunham]

88. Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Gephardt

I predict Kerry 30%, Edwards 26%, Dean 25%, and Gephardt 19%.

[aldian159]

89. Sure, why not?

Kerry 27.67
Dean 26.89
Edwards 21.54
Gephardt 19.78

Bye bye Dick, nice of you to stop on bye...

[Mike Niendorff]

90. throwing the proverbial dart:

(1) Dean -- 38.47%
(2) Gephardt -- 21.26%
(3) Kerry -- 19.28%
(4) Kucinich -- 16.00%

That's my report, live from Wishful Thinking Central. :)


MDN

[windansea]

91. kaukus kick

:kick:

[KFC]

92. OK

Edwards - 28.23
Kerry - 24.34
Dean - 20.11
Gep - 17.78

[windansea]

93. revisions anyone?? n/t

[windansea]

94. 2 hours till post deadline!

[Renew Deal]

95. Kerry 27, Edwards, 25, Dean 25, Gephardt, 22

Bank on it. Or not

[DjTj]

96. Predictions...

Kerry 27.24%
Edwards 23.57%
Dean 22.97%
Gephardt: 19.27%

[mohc]

97. Of delegates, districts, and precincts.

Assuming that you are asking what the breakdown of pledged Iowa delegats to the Democratic National Convention is going to be, most of the the predictions here are impossible. 45 pledged delegates will be selected, and technically speaking, that will not be complete until June 12 when the last 16 are selected (29 are chosen on April 24). So the percentages have to be based on some whole number diviided by 45, and most of the predictions here are not matching that (I guess you could say they are using the percentages to hedge their bets when they are not sure about the final outcome).

Anyway, the delegates actually being decided tonight will be the almost 13,500 delegates that will go to county conventions on March 13 to select some 3,000 delegates for both district and state conventions. Iowa has 5 districts that will select a total of 29 delegates for the national convention (I believe one district only gets 5 delegates, the rest 6), and the state convention selects 16. If voting goes the way polls are suggesting, its quite possible it will result in a 4-way tie at the state level with each of the top candidates getting 4 delegates. The next most likely scenario would be one candidate gets only 3 and uncommited winds up with 1 (the rest still get 4). This election will most likely be decided at the district level. Whichever candidate stays in the top 2 in the most distrcits will win. In a near 4 way tie at the district level, the top 2 would get 2 delegates while the bottom 2 only get 1. Its quite possible for a candidate to come in 2nd in the last round of voting, 2nd in county delegates, but still end up in 1st at the national delegate level because their support stayed even across all districts.

My guess in that Kerry will win the actual vote, but Edwards will win the final delegate count. Edwards decision to campaign in all 99 counties should give him a fairly even distribution of his support, and allow him to stay in the top two statewide. So....on to my delegate count prediction:

Edwards: 14 (31.11%)
Kerry: 12 (23.67%)
Dean: 10 (22.22%)
Gephardt: 9 (20.00%)

[Merlin]

99. Dean 28.03, Gephardt 25.41, Kerry 19.86, Edwards 13.66 n/t

.

[shivaji]

106. That's purty close

:toast:

[Blitz]

100. Prediction

Gephardt: 24.19%

Kerry: 23.83%

Edwards: 21.39

Dean: 19.39%

Other: 5.14

Kucinich: 3.59%

Sharpton: 2.47%

[tigerbeat]

101. Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards

1. Dean - 32.35
2. Kerry - 29.92
3. Gephardt - 22.21
4. Edwards - 15.52

[Guaranteed]

102. My prediction:

Dean: 29%
Gephardt: 24%
Kerry: 20%
Edwards: 17%

I'll be back later tonight to brag! :)

[texasmom]

103. Ok...

Kerry 26.24
Dean 25.10
Edwards 23.63
Gephardt 21.49

[mike1963]

104. Why 2 decimal places? All the previous results in your link have 1.

:eyes:

[windansea]

108. in case of a tie

not that it is likely

[Mudcat]

107. Pred

Kerry 32.00%
Dean 21.00%
Gephart 26.00%
Edwards 15.00%
Clark 6.00%

[windansea]

109. last chance...15 minutes to go

[spooky3]

110. I'll play too

Dean 24.50%
Gephart 22.50%
Kerry 21.00%
Edwards 18.00%

uncommitted & other 14.00%

[windansea]

111. my revision

Kerry 26.49%
Dean 23.32%
Edwards 21.09%
Gephart 19.99%

ackkkk this is hard!

[bhunt70]

112. scores

Kerry 23%
Gephardt 21%
Dean 20%
Edwards 19%
Undecided 17%

[MoonRiver]

113. Gephardt, Kerry, Edwards, Dean

Just my gut. Not my heart.

[bicentennial_baby]

114. Who's the winner?

:kick:

[windansea]

115. let me see

are these results final?



Kerry 37.5%
Edwards 31.9%
Dean 18.0%
Gephart 10.5%

[question everything]

117. I don't think that anyone predicting such a Kerry win

[Mudcat]

118. (ahem)

well... i was sort of close on Kerry

[windansea]

119. here are the finalists

David Dunham was closest to actual results

Iowa results are:

Kerry 37.5
Edwards 31.9
Dean 18
Gephart 10.5

best predictions: Mathmeticians help me out here!!!

Dookus (1000+ posts) Sun Jan-18-04 09:44 PM

Kerry: 28.15
Edwards: 25.77
Dean: 24.86
Gephard: 20.14

Clark4Prez (252 posts) Sun Jan-18-04 09:47 PM

Kerry 24.75%
Edwards 23.95%
Dean 23.25%
Gephardt 21.2%


Jackson Smith (93 posts) Sun Jan-18-04 09:48 PM

Kerry - 29.67%
Edwards - 24.41%
Dean - 23.89%
Gephardt - 20.97%


foktarded (262 posts) Sun Jan-18-04 10:06 PM

Kerry 24.00
Edward 23.50
Dean 22.00
Gep 19.00


question everything (34 posts) Sun Jan-18-04 11:53 PM
Response to Original message

Kerry 27%
Edwards 25.5%
Dean 22.5%
Gephardt 20.5%



David Dunham (114 posts) Mon Jan-19-04 02:38 PM

I predict Kerry 30%, Edwards 26%, Dean 25%, and Gephardt 19%


Bleachers7 (1000+ posts) Mon Jan-19-04 04:54 PM

95. Kerry 27, Edwards, 25, Dean 25, Gephardt, 22


DjTj (182 posts) Mon Jan-19-04 04:59 PM

Kerry 27.24%
Edwards 23.57%
Dean 22.97%
Gephardt: 19.27%

[spooky3]

123. wow, congratulations to David Dunham. Incredibly close prediction!

and congrats to all the finalists!