What is at stake in Iowa?

[flaminbats]

I believe the stakes are now the highest for Howard Dean. If he wins, he will remain the front-runner..but then face the challenge of going against Wes Clark in New Hampshire. If he comes in second, the media will portray the primaries as a two-man race with no real front-runner. It will become Dean vs. the Iowa victor. Finally, if Dean comes in third his campaign shall effectively be over. People will say it was another political fad, but nothing more. The race shall then be between Clark and the Iowa victor.

For Gephardt the stakes are equally high. If he defeats Dean in Iowa, Dean shall no longer be the front-runner and Gephardt would finally gain the momentum he needs to become a factor in the primaries. If he comes in just behind Dean, he might still be a factor...but just a minor one. If he comes in third, like Dean..this would effectively end his primary campaign.

For Kerry and Edwards, Iowa is the last chance to breakout of the pack. Kerry or Edwards would effectively become contenders by coming in first. The nomination would eventually be taken by the candidate who won Iowa or by Clark. If Kerry or Edwards come in second, they will become a minor factor in the contest..but not much more. And if Kerry or Edwards came in third, that candidate would become the next to dropout.

For Clark the stakes are closely tied to Dean's success or failure. If Dean comes in first, New Hampshire becomes a battleground between Dean and Clark. If Dean comes in second, the contest in New Hampshire will evolve into a contest between the Iowa victor and Dean...Clark's campaign would quickly lose momentum. Finally if Dean comes in third, Clark's challenge will be to defeat the winner of Iowa in the New Hampshire primary.

[Egnever]

1. Interesting analysis but you are missing one large factor

Dean has organization in all 50 states already. No one else can match it. If dean loses Iowa it will energize his support to work that much harder in all of those states.

While it would certainly help any of the others to win Iowa as far as a boost for their campaign it wont have much of an effect either way for Dean.

Iowa gets a lot of attention from all of the candidates so all of them will have a much higher turnout than in any of the other states except perhaps NH. After those two are done it becomes about organization on the ground getting out the vote.

For example in Nevada also a caucus state the last elections turnout was under 250 people the dean camp here already has more than that committed to going. this will be repeated across the country.

Dean may lose Iowa I don't think it will happen I think Deaniacs are going to get a very pleasant surprise tomorrow night but if he does it will be one of the last places he loses.

Quite honestly I almost hope he does lose Iowa so the target can go on someone Else's back for a week or two.

Dean will not drop out of this race till the end I guarantee it.

Another thing you fail to take into consideration is cash. While the others may eak out a win there after that pretty much all of them except Wesley Clark has shot his load at that point so baring any sort of incredible windfall of money after Iowa which I don't see happening to the degree necessary to be competitive for the rest of the race Dean and Clark run practically uncontested for the rest of the race.

Also if Iowa is split 4 ways it effectively cancels itself out of mattering as the delegates get split practically evenly between the four so in essence Iowa has made absolutely no impact on the eventual nominee other than the wow he took it factor.

I will say the winner of Iowa will get a bunch of free press leading into NH and that helps anyone but if it truly gets divided 4 ways then again that free press is negated also.

No sorry at this point i am coming to the firm conclusion that Iowa is quickly positioning itself to be Irrelevant.

[nofurylike]

3. humbly i say, great post, Egnever! heartening! one added comment

it seems to me that the Iowa caucus has done a lot for the entire voting process, whatever happens.

thank you!


peace!

[Egnever]

8. Aww thanks :)

:bounce:

[cthrumatrix]

17. I agree. One thing it does show is "who" the media does not favor..and

that is anyone who starts to look like the runaway. The liberal media and thier maching orders..hope people are taking note.

Good points on the Dean machine. Not sure if others have the capabilty to bring in the fresh votes.

[TexasPatriot]

2. hrm

i think there are 2 tickets out of Iowa - and one is Deans regardless (though i think he wins). The second is a questionmark. If its a big 4 way mess - then no one gets it.
In descending order:
If Edwards comes in 1-2, its his.
If Gep comes in 1 and Dean is 2, then it's Geps.
If Kerry comes in 1 or 2 behind Dean then it's his.

Edwards is too positive and fresh, and we're headed south - so he can play it better than the rest. Gep can only have a ticket if Edwards does poorly and Gep does really well - because otherwise he has no money. Kerry is in the same boat - and he runs into trouble because a lot of the undecideds he's been harvesting in Iowa wont necessarily be so easy to grab in NH and the South.

Dean could place 4th and it wouldnt matter. He as a lot of money, and a lot of people - in fact, doing poorly would likely just make them work harder.

[arewethereyet]

4. pretty solid analysis

Dean really needs to win but he could take second and not suffer severly. Third makes him ordinary and eliminates all momentum. Fourth and its really an uphill battle.

A Kerry win sets him up for a 1st or 2nd in NH and a great deal of momentum but it won't help in the south so momentum will fade a bit.

Clark has really been hurt by skipping this very charged campaign. He has no momentun and actually appears to have peaked. He really must win NH to carry any steam into the south.

If the improbably Edwards it 1 2 or 3 in Iowa and gets bumped to respectable i NH then he carried a great deal of steam into the south and should clean up. And with that momentum and his natural appeal it could be all she wrote.

Even a Gephardt win is no guarantee of any future in the race.

And for good or ill the press establishes monmentum and momemntum is a lot more powerful than organizations. The DNC and or DLC can prop up an Edwards if they see their winning ticket in him.

THis is a partuicularly significant Iowa this time around. Can't wait to see how it shakes out.

[Egnever]

6. This is a particularly significant Iowa this time around?

I just don't see this.

Other than bragging rights which don't look forthcoming( a split decision leaves no winner)it cancels itself out. The delegates get split pretty much evenly between the four and no one really gains anything there other than face time.

Sure it will boost moral for some of the candidate camps but as long as the results come in close together Iowa becomes meaningless and we look ahead to the next state to show us the person breaking away from the pack.

This could continue for quite sometime in fact it could possibly continue all the way to the convention. However the longer this thing remains unclear the worse it starts to look for some of the candidates with less money to work with. At this point they have all been able to stay fairly competitive in their spending however because of that several of them are now either broke or teetering on the edge of broke. They will not be able to carry their competitiveness onward throughout the country.

For some of these candidates a clear victory is needed anything short of that and they die a slow death of attrition.

[arewethereyet]

12. the media is so tied to this one, moreso than in the past

its different than all the others i've seen

[Egnever]

14. ok

I can live with that it certainly has goten a lot of attention.

[flaminbats]

18. I think Edwards must win Iowa to gain momentum...

this is why he has cut that crazy deal with Kucinich for delegates, and why he has spent so much time in this state. Unfortunately many people still confuse Edwards with Kerry and viseversa...which is why I think Kucinich can benefit more from such a bargain.

Clark knows that only two Iowa winners since 1972 have become President. Iowa isn't really necessary to become the nominee, unless you are already perceived to be the front-runner. By not campaigning in Iowa, Clark will be the candidate least effected by the final results in the state.

[deminflorida]

5. Disagree with this statement:

"For Clark the stakes are closely tied to Dean's success or failure."

Clark is staking everything against his own success or failure, period.

My guess is that the voting public will decide. Clark has good grass-roots organization in most states like Dean. There are still very important endorsements out there to be strategically used.

Feb. 3rd will be the turning point I believe for Clark.

Iowa and New Hampshire this year are important for only one reason and that is Media Hype.

This may be the first primary where the people who really count will be heard, and those folks are the common voters.

All three FOX political commentators today called Iowa for Dean, but they all had worried looks on their faces.

[Egnever]

7. the more I look at Iowa the more i agree with you

Iowa and New Hampshire this year are important for only one reason and that is Media Hype

This is quickly starting to look like the case.

[buckeye1]

11. I disagree.

Dean might have a 50 state organ but most Democrats are turned off by the shallowness. Dean has yet to prove he stands for anything beyond ambition. I continue to watch but the more I see the less I like.

[Egnever]

13. Have anything to back that up

Or is the most democrats thing just your opinion?

I would say his 12 years as govenor offers plenty of proof of what he stands for, and it aint shallow.

Way to jump into a pretty decent discusion though with nothing but a quick slam

[stickdog]

15. In what way do you find Dean shallow? Is it the fact that he writes his

own speeches and makes his own policy?

Dean stood up against the Iraq war while 80% of the US was supporting it. Dean took Bush on while the DLC four were enabling a "popular President."

Dean stands for universal healthcare, fiscal responsibility and a sane foreign policy. How would you propose that he "prove" this to you?

[deminflorida]

10. Let me add this...I also disagree that third place is curtains for

Dean. He also has good national grass-roots organization and the guy's a fighter. If he places third, he will have to address that Middle Class tax issue a little better on Feb. 2, or earlier that's all. But He'll do it, and the guy has a truck load of money. He's not going anywhere until after Super Tuesday. He'd be crazy otherwise.

P.S.

He doesn't strike me as the Gore type, that would abandon his supporters.

[necso]

9. As follows:

For Dean, no matter what his finish, it is at most a little disappointment. He and his followers are idealistic, but seasoned and street tough fighters, and I will be honored to fight along side of them to the very last ditch if he wins the nomination. But not to worry, Dean will win Iowa.

For Clark, no matter what happens, the real contest is later. I and, I think, many others will back him as long as he wills it.

For Gephardt, the party owes him a solid finish. But I see at best a moment of glory, even if he wins.

For Kerry this is a real test. A loss here and a disappointment in NH and he is in real trouble. The ABDOC wonder of the moment, I believe that he has no real depth of support. (I also believe him to be decent, honest, dedicated, experienced, intelligent, wise and recklessly brave --- but an even worse campaigner than Gore.)

For Edwards, I think he hangs in for VP, no matter what. An outside chance for the nomination, if he wins here he will get full scrutiny and the complete sludge treatment and will falter.

If I have offended anybody by this honest statement of my feelings, I apologize.

[JCMach1]

16. I don't entirely agree...

Another outcome would be that NO ONE carries any real momentum out of Iowa and EVERYTHING moves to NH.

It is possible the the top 4 finishers may well be within 5% of each other.

It's not who wins, but how it plays in the media that's important.

[flaminbats]

19. Dean and Gephardt are both dead ducks....

My prediction now is that New Hampshire will be won by either Wes Clark or John Kerry. Clark was wise to avoid the Iowa caucuses, and Kerry was wise to campaign so hard there.

Edwards from this point on is the dark horse IMHO...