Final Zogby: kerry 25, Dean 22, Edwards 21, Gep 18

[megaplayboy]

Assuming a slight edge for Dean and Gep in organization, I think Dean will win or place, kerry will win, place or show, and gep will place or show. I don't see Edwards placing higher than third.

It's possible that Dean could finish a close third, but I think fourth would be pretty shocking. First or second would help him, third would hurt him a bit, and fourth would make a win in NH a must.

Kerry needs a top three placement to come back in NH. Gep needs a win(and probably won't get it). Edwards just needs a third place finish, anything above that is gravy.

Rumor has it that Gep might stay in if he finishes close to 1st. Wonder what that would do to the race?

A big win for Kerry would hurt both Dean and Clark in NH, obviously.

Best case scenario for Dean? D-E-G-K
For Kerry? K-E-G-D
Gep? G-E-K-D
Edwards? E-G-K-D

Interesting how the best case scenarios for the other candidates(in my view) all involve Dean placing 4th...

[DU9598]

1. Is it interesting or bias?

You state: "Interesting how the best case scenarios for the other candidates(in my view) all involve Dean placing 4th..."

I would think that with momentum, Kerry would want Edwards to finish 4th so that he has no momentum in NH and is left to make a final stand in South Carolina or Oklahoma. Maybe a bias for Dean (over-estimating his strength) is driving your "best case scenarios".

[JI7]

2. i think

they are basing it on dean's support in new hampshire. weakening dean's support is the only thing all the other candidates have in common since it's what will make them competetive. as for which of them will benefit is in question. but if dean stays strong they have no chance at all.

[megaplayboy]

3. perhaps...

though it's hard to overestimate an organization that has about 1 volunteer for every 10 or 20 caucus goers.

I think the fact that Dean is the money leader would tend to make the others want him to fade away as soon as possible. From what I've seen, even a second place finish for Dean would be played up by the mass media as a major setback.
If Edwards has at least 15% in Iowa, a 4th place finish doesn't blunt his momentum that much.
I think D, E, and K all want Gep to go away, though...

[cthrumatrix]

4. it's going to come down to orgainzation in each state...not just in Iowa

and that goes for the campaign against shrub...becuase you know which way the media will spin it

[Lexingtonian]

5. Lyndon LaRouche salutes you!

He's been doing the highly organized thing for many years. Unfortunately, lack of popular enthusiasm for him has...limited, shall we say, his success in Presidential races.

The media spins everything the way that sells more advertising.

[buckeye1]

6. Ha Ha!

Right you are. I once turned the away at my doorstep.

[End Evil]

7. It seems to me that the somewhat

archaic caucus system in Iowa will greatly favor Dean.

He has his excited young people there and they will have no problem handling the extremely cold evening weather while they caucus and vote.

It seems meaningless to me that a great many people who WILL vote in the general election will not take part in this dog-and-pony show in Iowa. Frankly, it looks very exciting, but I wish they would retire it to something like a civics lesson from days of old...akin to Jamestown or the recreation in Virginia (can't recall the name now).

[DU9598]

8. College voters

The problem for Dean is they are all in limited precincts. That could hurt his delegate count.

Plus, organization is overstated in this system. The hardcore supporters are going out regardless of organization. A big turnout will hurt Dean and it is going to be a very big turnout.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Even if Kerry does not win he has already "won" in a sense

He's viable again. He wil be a close second with strong support.
message: .........Kerry is back!