Statistical dead heat? Yea, only when Senator Kerry is leading the polls

[phirili]

Sad that our media still cannot give Kerry the kudos he deserves when he works so hard against all the odds and put his candidacy ahead in the polls in Iowa, instead Kerry's success is bunched with other candidates that the media would much prefer to see ahead in the polls.

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when the purpose is to deceive.

We who have supported Kerry and suffered the slings and arrows when trying to guide our democratic colleges, we who have not been misled by the repug media know Kerry's strength and wisdom and are very aware of how the media have labored to keep Kerry down. We know that Senator Kerry has a story to tell and a mission to complete that America yearns for, the story of a hero soldier who came back to serve his country and during this service has shown what a high quality statesman, leader, and intellectual he is.

Our country yearns for leadership from this great and compassionate leader.

[depakid]

1. Even if you believe poll results

which as a general rule, I do not- at least not as a valid predictive measure- especially in this case, you have to look at their margin of error, which in every one that's being tossed around right now, indicates that chance error could place any one of two, three or in some cases four candidates ahead.

[phirili]

4. Why not focus on Kerry's speeches and the large turnouts

that Kerry has been getting all over Iowa.

Give the man his due for staying the course after surviving unrelenting attacks from the media and Dean.

[depakid]

8. I didn't dis Kerry- only the implication

that somehow it's only a dead heat when he's pulled slightly in several polls. I like Kerry just fine- other than his IWR vote.

[WiseMen]

2. I predicted that the Big Media would Boost Dean to the End.

Could it be that they really are serious when they give Dean 90% of the coverage. When all give a "Dean will win" New Years prediction.
When they continue to say that the Dean machine is unstopable in Iowa.

Could it be that they really want Dean to win the primaries?

I wonder.

[Padraig18]

3. "...they give Dean 90% of the coverage."

Can you back that statistic up? :eyes:

[AP]

5. The NYT has done 2X more stories on Dean than on Clark. 3x more than...

Gep, Edwards and Kerry COMBINED.

The Times published 59 major stories or editorials about Dean. Wesley Clark has been up for view 30 times. No other candidate has enjoyed (or suffered) more than 20 appearances in the paper. Carol Moseley Braun got only three shots - and two of those were about her decision to leave the race.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/18/weekinreview/18bott.html

[JohnLocke]

6. Great job, AP!

[AP]

15. You can thank Dean supporters for that story.

It was (amusingly) used yesterday to try to prove media bias against Dean. The whole point of that article is that there ISN'T bias against Dean in the times, and then it goes beyond that to prove that there's probably bias FOR Dean!

[Padraig18]

17. This is an interesting read, too.

There's a 'bias', most certainly.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=133419

[AP]

20. It amazes me that there's so little evidence of anti-Dean media bias that

this article, which argues there isn't any in thet times, is used to allege that there is media bias by DU'ers.

But, of course, if you say something enough times, it might come true, right?

[AP]

23. and this is why you link to a DU exerpt of the story rather than the story

itself, which is what happened last night when I first saw this article.

[Padraig18]

24. I link it because it shoots the 'spin' in the ass.

It simply says that there WAS no massive 'positive media bias' in Dean's favor, as so many paranoids here at DU believe.

[JohnLocke]

30. That's bull.

Sorry, but it is.

[Padraig18]

31. Care to elaborate a bit?

"That's bull" isn't very illuminating, frankly.

[Padraig18]

7. The blanket statement did not mention the 'New York Times'

It said 'the media', and 2X or even 3X is not '90%'.

[AP]

16. I wasn't supporting or refuting that statement. I was giving supplemental

information to help people answer this question in their minds.

[Padraig18]

21. I notice no answer is forthcoming from the original poster of the remark.

:shrug:

[depakid]

9. Dean's a much better story

plain and simple. His use of the internet, meetups and his enfranchising tens of thousands of first time participants represents THE most significant political movement to come along in over a decade and his meteoric rise from an unknown governor of a small state to a national public figure and Democratic frontrunner with star quality makes great copy.

That's why the media writes about Dean and not Kerry or Edwards.

[Padraig18]

10. You've committed the unpardonable sin of...

... offering a completely logical reason for the perceived 'bias'. Prepare to be met with howls of outrage! ;)

[phirili]

12. Us of internet, meetups and lies, thought you needed some help.

[Padraig18]

14. Thanks for reminding me!

I haven't told my daily quota of lies about the other candidates yet... :eyes:

[depakid]

19. That was kind of gratuitous- and it wasn't even good smack

if you can't do better than that, why even demean yourself by posting?

[AP]

18. That's your theory. I look back at 92-00 media coverage and I KNOW

the media isn't going to let the primaries pass without them trying to influence the election exactly as they did throughout Clinton's administration and during the 2000 election.

I can't believe people think they're sitting the primaries out.

[redqueen]

22. Not sitting them out

It's just that they're honest now, and dong the best job they can. They're just trying to cover the interesting story, you know.

On other matters, of course, they're nefarious. On this, though, totally above board.

:eyes:

[depakid]

28. I should add...

that Dean's fundraising- both in terms of amounts and kinds of donations is unprecidented and his propensity for making what some (particularly his primary opponents) consider provocative statements also makes Dean a much more interesting story in the eyes of both news editors and pundits alike.

[Cuban_Liberal]

29. I agree.

"Man bites dog" has ALWAYS gotten more coverage than "Dog bites man" has.

[trogdor]

11. Today's numbers.

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby has it as:

Kerry 25
Dean 22
Edwards 21
Gephardt 18

Who to believe? Just wait until tonight and see.

[redqueen]

13. I noticed that as well.

That the same dead heat was not being called a dead heat before. Interesting.

[Neecy]

25. I dunno

I've been watching quite a bit of the caucus coverage, and Kerry really seems to be the lead story everywhere. It's still within the margin of error, for sure, but I've seen quite a bit of emphasis on the fact that Kerry has the lead in two major polls and the reasons that might account for that.

As far as I can see, it's been a great week for Kerry.

[leyton]

26. I think it has been called a dead heat.

When the first polls were coming out, it was already being called a close race. MSNBC's Demo Derby (of which I am quite fond, just because of the graphic at top) has had all four Dems bunched at the top with Dean in frong and they've been calling it a statistical tie since before Kerry came to the top.

[phirili]

27. Statistical tie was recently introduced by the W media. Kerry is ahead in

every single Iowa pole and yet we keep hearing of a dead heat.

[sandnsea]

32. Stay in the moment, do the hard work

Do it because you believe in the work, let the people decide.

When something is too good to be true, it usually is. Except with John Kerry. That takes a while for cynical Americans to digest! But when they do... George Bush... look the fuck out!!!

[Snivi Yllom]

33. Dean-Kerry-Edwards-Gephardt

Im predicting close, but not quite for JFK.

[DjTj]

34. You should be happy...

...that they're lowering expectations for Kerry. If he wins, that will mean more momentum.

Dean and Gephardt are still saddled with pressure to win, and it's better not to be dubbed "frontrunner" before the votes are cast.

If Kerry wins this, it will be *huge* momentum for NH, and part of it will come from that fact that he broke out of a statistical dead heat.