Forget the polls - Its cold in Iowa - What is the effect?

[Wickerman]

The polls have been up and down for the last week, the candidates have pulled out all the stops - its hard to find a clear front runner.

Its possible all that will mean nothing. Why? Its darn cold in Iowa today. 1 degree in Des Moines as I type this. Further North its colder. The humidity is in the 70's and the wind is about 8 to 10 mph across the state - all that contributes the cold with a strong wind chill. I haven't seen accurate wind chill ratings for Iowa, it's -20 with windchill from my vantage point a scant 50 miles above Iowa.

Expect lower numbers of older Iowans at the caucuses tonight. By this evening it will be in the sub-zero temps again, though winds will die down. In all I would say, even with the legal holiday, turnout will be lower than if we had enjoyed the balmy lows of mid-teens and highs in the 20's and early 30's that we saw last week.

Who does this hurt? Does it help anyone? My guess is that Gephardt had a bigger number of older supporters. Maybe they will get up and going anyway.

Iowans are a hardy lot, the seasoned will barely notice the cold, but coming in an unseasonably warm winter it could have a (get ready for it, pardon in advance) a chilling effect on someone's campaign.

The question is, whose?

[Padraig18]

1. It hurts Gephardt, especially, IMO.

for the reasons you stated regarding his supporter demographic, it hurts him the most. In contrast, I think it proportionately benefits Dean, because his base is especially energized, motivated and, frankly, younger.

I look for a Dean/Kerry/Edwards 'win, place and show' tonight.

[Bluzmann57]

2. Ah for crying out loud...

We who are here know its cold. We have garages, heat in our vehicles, warm winter clothing, and we know how to deal with the winter weather that happens every year. It probably won't change many plans. Maybe a few older folks, as the poster said, but I suspect not many.

[Padraig18]

3. It's cold here, too.

It was 1 degree when I woke up, with wind chill of -18. Brrrrrrrrr! *shiver*

[Wickerman]

4. You'll note I am further north than Iowa

Yes, I know its typically cold, however, its been a warmer than usual winter. This is the first real cold snap. It will have an effect, more so than if we had been experiencing this for a week or two.

[Padraig18]

5. Ohhhhh....

Ours has been unusually dry, but pertty typically cold; we're having an unusually-cold spot of weather atm, though.

[Wickerman]

9. where abouts are you?

that is really cold. I grew up in Iowa and was used to it. Then lived in Texas for nearly 2 decades. Came back to Minn a few years back and its been a tough adjustment!

[Padraig18]

12. Central Illinois, east of Decatur.

The prairie part of Illinois with nothing but a barbed-wire fence to break the wind as it whistles down from the north. *shiver*

[Wickerman]

14. Yikes!

I have driven that. Desolate - no offense! Stay inside, turn up the furnace!

[Padraig18]

15. Hehe!

It's quite beautiful, in a 'stark' way, and absolutely lush and green in the summers. We've paid the power and gas bill, and I'm not going outside today without a VERY good reason. :)

[Wickerman]

6. Disclaimer

I did NOT know that Matthews had just said something on this on M$GOP. Forgive me please for sounding like I was parroting that GOP slave. I started this post in anticipation of taking the kids to school and my morning trip to the coffee shop. Yep, it was DAMN cold out there. Finished the post on my return.

[bicentennial_baby]

7. No worries

They were talking about it on CNN too...Must be on people's minds.

[mdmc]

10. stay warm

the cold cripples those that are unprepared, individuals and campaigns alike. My guess is that each campaign that is in play in Iowa will work hard to overcome the bad weather. Go Dems!

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

8. article about the weather in Iowa

http://nymrecords.com/

[bearfartinthewoods]

11. the governor was just on cspan and said

'it's not that cold today. i'm not even wearing an overcoat. we couldn't ask for better weather' loose quote from memory.

[Wickerman]

20. Tom Vilseck rocks n/t

[bobbieinok]

13. those who care will show----deep snow and ice may hurt

In IA from 72-88; can't remember weather really stopping anyone.

I think it's only 'sissy' 'eastern' media types who don't realize Iowans are USED to cold and bad weather.

[Lobo_13]

16. It's a good thing

that Dean has enough of an organization to drive the older folks to the caucus. I'm picking up three tonight.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

17. Any campaign worthy of the name

will have made arrangements to provide rides to the caucuses for supporters.

When I went canvassing for Kucinich on Saturday, that was part of the information we handed out and made sure to mention.

As a native Minnesotan, I've noticed that it takes at least a foot of fresh snow or a twenty below zero air temperature to slow down Upper Midwesterners.

[arewethereyet]

18. I think they're used to the weather out there

rain might matter. That takes it from annoying to irritating.

[CMT]

19. the candidate who has a strong organization

will win--no matter the weather.

[Clark Can WIN]

21. ZERO - We are used to this in the midwestern plains

From a neighbor to the west.