ARG tracking poll results: No Change, but...

[CMT]

The results are the same as yesterday, Dean 28%, Clark 20%, Kerry 19%, and Edwards 8%

but the analysis today is this:
"The three day results are unchanged, but the daily trend indicates that John Kerry continues to gain at Wesley Clark's expense. Win or lose in Iowa the attention Kery is receiving from Iowa should be enough to push him in front of Clark for second place."

www.americanresearchgroup.com

[trogdor]

1. Interesting.

Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby has it as:

Kerry 25
Dean 22
Edwards 21
Gephardt 18

Who to believe? Just wait until tonight and see.

[maddezmom]

3. ARG is the NH poll

the Zogby is Iowa. :)

[HumanPatriot]

6. ARG numbers are for NH. Those Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby numbers are Iowa...

:) hence the discrepency.

But to answer your question, beleive no one.


Polls are motivated and strange to watch. Before the polls, a 2nd place finish in Iowa of Dean would of made waves. But the polls have done their best to make sure that anything but a first place finish will doom his candidacy. I find it odd in that way, and wonder if the numbers were ever real, or hyped up to increase expectation to unseat the "frontrunner" at an early point. Sad that you can believe nothing these days. But it is most certainly strange to take note on how a single state will play into a candidates race with and without polls. There is a marked difference, and what can differentiate someone as leading can also doom them by putting them on a pinnacle they will never reach.

[Padraig18]

2. Yep.

Dean remains rock-solid, and Kerry gains at Clark's expense. If Edwards does well in Iowa, too, look for the General to lose some more votes as Edwards peels them off.

[jumptheshadow]

34. Yep, somewhere down the road

The Clark/Kerry/Gep/Edwards followers will probably merge with most of them going to the candidate who will win the nomination (Clark/Kerry/Edwards).

[Lobo_13]

4. Told you so

Kerry and Clark are fighting for the same demographic.

[Walt Starr]

5. Yep, that's been obvious to me for some time now

It's the military thing.

[Padraig18]

7. Yep.

And if Edwards does as well as it seems he will, there goes the 'Southern thing" Clark has been working so hard. There is NO good news coming out of Iowa for Gen. Clark--- none at all.

[CMT]

8. I think Edwards will be coming on strong as well

It is going to be a battle royale in NH, just like in Iowa. Dean seems solid in NH, a good showing in Iowa should help. Kerry is already gaining and will get some additional gains. Edwards also should benefit in NH.

[Lobo_13]

11. And think of the upside

barring a complete collapse of the Clark campaign, the rest of the field is too fragmented to stop Dean.

[KaraokeKarlton]

13. I'm wondering...

Is it possible that some Dean supporters are claiming to support Edwards or Kerry (in Iowa) just to boost them in the polls in an effort to slow Clark's build up in NH? It would be a brilliant way to handle Clark's gain in NH. With the incredible organization of the Dean camp in Iowa, it's certainly possible. This would also raise the expectations for the others in Iowa, and if they don't deliver it really hurts them. It's going to be interesting to see the results of the caucuses tonight. ;)

[arewethereyet]

12. I think Clark needs an accent to be southern

he traded in that trait for a career in the Army.

[jumptheshadow]

35. No

It's the "best man for the job" thing.

[depakid]

9. If the trends are to be believed

and these types of polls are better at showing trends than predicting results, then Clark's decision to forego Iowa may prove to have been a tactical mistake. Many people last week firmly believed that Clark was better off staying out of Iowa and the debates. The risk, of course, was that by doing so, he'd allow Kerry and Edwards to shore up their support in other states- and if they did, and if they were to stay in the race longer than anticipated, it would be predominantly at his expense, as Dean already has a committed base and plenty of funds on hand.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

10. I'll Take Stable Over Hemorrhaging

Whew!

DTH

[Padraig18]

14. I don't see anyone hemorrhaging.

:)

[DoveTurnedHawk]

15. Clark Had Been Hemorrhaging Over the Last Couple of Days

Down from a high of 24-25, IIRC.

Although if you look at it from the start of the ARG tracking poll, Kerry is about the same, Clark is up about 8, and Dean is down about 8. So even though the recent phenomenon is Kerry up at the expense of Clark, over the course of the last few weeks, it's really Clark up at the expense of Dean.

DTH

[Cuban_Liberal]

23. Yes, he has.

I personally think it will resume tomorrow, after Kerry and Edwards both come roaring out of Iowa. Dean's numbers will also rise, because he has that rock-solid 30% to build on.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

25. It's All Dependent on the Iowa Results

Kerry will not surge in NH, IMO, if he places third or fourth. Dean will not surge in NH, IMO, if he places anywhere but first.

DTH

[Cuban_Liberal]

30. Maybe.

I don't think Dean is Clark's real 'competition' in NH now, or won't be after tonight; he'll do well regardless, I think, because of that 30% base. General Clark's real competition will be Kerry and Edwards, Kerry because of his military experience and gravitas and Edwards because of the 'Southern appeal', positive message and service on the Intelligence Committee.

I think the two will put a substantial dent in Clark's hopes for a second- or even 3rd-place finish.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

31. I Don't Disagree Significantly

But if Kerry and Edwards finish 3-4 or 4-3 in Iowa, I think Clark will be fine and dandy.

DTH

[Cuban_Liberal]

36. Could be.

We'll know for certain next Tuesday! :)

[Josh]

16. Clark was initially going for third in NH, so it wouldn't be a fatal blow

to his chances.

He's still ahead in Nevada and tied for first with Dean in something like 4 out of the Feb 3 states as per the latest polls.

[Padraig18]

18. But if he doesn't finish 3rd...

... it could spell real trouble, because SC is Edwards' back yard, and he could do VERY well there, with good 'bounces' out of Iowa and NH.

[cspiguy]

20. if Clark is ignored in Iowa, and gets creamed in NH

then Kerry will look like the only one to stop Dean.

[BootinUp]

22. We still haven't seen official fundraising results

for the 4th Qtr. When that comes out, it will be big news again for Dean and Clark.

[tishaLA]

17. A top three finish in NH is fine

I think Clark and Kerry have the momentum going now. It will be an interesting two man race after February 3.

[cally]

19. I think most voters in NH could

change their minds. I think the race is very volatile and noone will know until after the vote. It will depend on the campaigns run.

[LuminousX]

21. Clark SURGES to 24 and silently erodes to 20.

I still stick by my analysis that I posted in this thread (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=105364), but as you can see in that thread, many Clark supporters preferred to hold onto the theory that Clark was surging ahead. Now how do they explain the reduction?

If they accepted my theory, the reduction isn't anything negative regarding Clark, but if he was SURGING before, what is happening now?

[QC]

24. Isn't there a 4% margin of error in that poll? n/t

[mzmolly]

27. There is a 4% MOE in the polls that show Dean behind as well, but the

polls are considered relevant here. In fact, I've heard *Dean is tanking* over a 2% drop so???

[DoveTurnedHawk]

28. Try Eight Points

And even more than that, if you consider Dean's numbers in NH before the tracking poll started.

DTH

[LuminousX]

32. Dean was getting the same benefits Clark was getting last week

Apart from Kerry, who was having campaign communication problems, Dean pretty much had New Hampshire to himself. As the other candidates started campaigning there, of course his poll numbers dropped. But instead of acknowledging it as a natural correction, it was called 'tanking.' So what is happening to Clark. The trend is downwards right now? Is the General tanking? Of course not, he is suffering from the natural correction of other campaigns refocusing on New Hampshire.

[mzmolly]

26. Uh oh, Chris Lehanes tactics sliming Dean may have backfired.

I love it!

[DoveTurnedHawk]

29. 1. You Have Zero Evidence of Lehane Sliming Dean. 2. This Is a Kerry Surge

Not a Dean surge.

DTH

[DancingBear]

33. C'mon DTH

EVERYTHING is a slam on Dean - didn't you get the "meme"? :)

The love taps are artillery shells, the written/spoken word is misconstrued, up is down, black is white....

<singing Buffalo Springfield tune - "paranoia strikes deep, into your life it will creep"...>