THE COMEBACK: Kerry camp was sure of upswing ahead

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, middle-class tax increases -- as presidential candidate Howard Dean stumbled on such issues and others over the last four weeks, advisers to rival John F. Kerry were telling the Massachusetts senator that a surge was on the horizon.

Kerry, in particular, pounced on Dean's and Representative Richard A. Gephardt's proposals to repeal Republican-backed tax cuts, broadcasting a commercial saying Kerry would not raise taxes while others would. He ran another ad calling for "energy independence" from Middle East oil, which polled well with voters. And he and another candidate, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, sought to offer positive-sounding messages on the stump while Dean and Gephardt thrashed each other.

<snip>

The timing and trajectory of Kerry's surge -- in which he has wooed voters from other campaigns and won first-place status in recent polls -- cannot be tied to any one transformative moment, Kerry's advisers and political analysts say, although there were times along the way that portended an upswing. Edwards, by contrast, enjoyed one clear jolt: The Des Moines Register's Jan. 11 endorsement of his ardently optimistic candidacy as "a cut above the others," which within days had translated into larger crowds and greater popularity in voter surveys.

<snip>

Dean and Gephardt, who had been trading first place in Iowa polls since last summer, suddenly appear vulnerable to Kerry, who has not led since summertime himself, and Edwards, who had set relatively low expectations for himself while hoping for a mighty surge in February's Southern primaries. The recent zigs and zags of the candidates in Iowa, analysts said, have largely been driven by the strident attacks by Dean and Gephardt and the months of quiet, careful work by Kerry's aides to find savvy precinct captains, organize veterans and female voters into hard-core blocs of support, and enlarge voter lists in all 99 counties.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/19/kerry_camp_was_sure_of_upswing_ahead/

[sangha]

1. It just goes to show that campaigns are like war

and just like war, the better trained force tends to win.