Spinning the Iowa results.

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

This is going to be the only game in town. Can we all admit that there is already a big winner: Edwards. If he places third, it's a nice win; if he places second, it's a coup; if he gets first, WOW. I can hear it now: "See, nice guys DO finish first."

I think Kerry will attempt to spin third to his advantage, but it will be a wash. Dean and Gephart just had too much organized support. Second will be great. He can proclaim his emergence from the dust bin of primary history and his ability to overcome either Dean's or Gephart's entrenched power. If he takes first, it will be very big.

Gephart is done unless he wins.

Dean has a lot to lose. He's supposed to have big ground forces. He's still said to be the front-runner (predictions of a "2-point" victory abound). It was his to lose, etc. If he doesn't take first, he takes a hit. If he doesn't take first, the question of electability is raised and repeated for the next two weeks. This willl be the primary reason given for his slippage. Even if he takes first, they'll need to spin the victory as hard-fought (which it would be), and as an indication that Dean took on the heavy attacks of two campaigns plus the ads of a conservative group. Dean can be built as a real fighter.

Please note: the above is meant as my description of how I think the campaigns and the media (which are extensions of one another) will spin the Iowa caucuses. The above is not how I perceive the potential results.

[Bill McBlueState]

1. spin will be really important

I agree, in the event of the expected result, which is a near four-way tie, it's all going to be about how the campaigns spin the results.

Two- or three-point differences aren't going to mean much in terms of delegate selection, so the winner is really the candidate whose team can make the results sound best. If a result that "sounds good" (like Edwards finishing well ahead of expectations) can be translated into positive momentum in NH and on Feb. 3, that candidate will have essentially won.

[cthrumatrix]

2. I would agree -- however -- it's a 50 state race --- forget the spin

History has shown what happens (whatever happens) does NOT mean that he will be the winner.

It's only one contest.

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

4. You can never forget the spin.

Hell, that's all the media participates in. That's all the majority of the populace hears. Whoever has the tastiest narrative comes out ahead. Nobody will win or lose the entire primary because of Iowa; in fact, history shows that the person who comes in third wins the primary twice as much as the one who comes in second (the person in first statistically wins about 56% of the time). But at this point it's always about building a campaign narrative (even in anticipation for the general election).

That being said, if I may quote a popular American philosopher: "It's all about the Benjamins."

[arewethereyet]

20. its a fifty state race so long as you are seen as viable

otherwise you're just spending other people's money.

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. Too much spin already, and too little reality.

I like John Edwards, and think he will do well tonight, but I'm a hard-assed realist, too. Dean will not be 'crushed' today, regardless of what happens-- 'winged', maybe, but with $20 million in the bank, he'll walk it off. Kerry will get a nice bounce, regardless, and will be nipping at Clark's heels in NH even more so than he is.

The fact of the matter is this: Iowa is just one state, and anyone wanting to take the 'presumed front runer' status off of Dr. Dean had better reralize they have on hell of a fight ahead of them.

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

5. Too little reality?

Reality like this line: 'presumed front runer.' You've made my point: "presumed" is nothing other than consumption of narrative, spin. Spin IS reality.

Your point about campaign $ is very well taken. You think Dean's saving it for Feb. 3?

[Cuban_Liberal]

6. I don't think Dean is 'saving' anything.

By all accounts, he's a tight-fisted S.O.B., but I suspect he's spending what Trippi tells him he needs to spend. Even so, $20 million takes a long time to burn through, when you're taking in $1 million-plus a week on top of that, and that's the figure I hear Dean is continuing to bring in.

He's a formidable opponent, and anyone who doesn't realize that is aither a fool, or whistling through the graveyard, IMO.

:hi:

[deminflorida]

10. He'll need more than money on Feb. 3, he needs a Tax Plan....

that favors the middle class. Without that, write him off for the Presidency.

[Cuban_Liberal]

11. Keep telling yourself that.

Your candidate is looking at nmothing but bad news coming out of Iowa, IMO, and made a huge tactical mistake in not competing there. Dean is far more formidable than you give him credit for, I think.

[deminflorida]

22. Not really...he's gasping in Iowa today I hear....

and without that Tax plan he'll gasp even harder once he hits the rest of the Heartland.

Throw in his lack of National Security Experience, and what is there to attact the average middle-class voter?

Nothing, just the Chest-Beating claim that he's the one guy that can beat Bush? They're not buying it, it's the one reason he's fallen behind in the first heart-land state.

[Cuban_Liberal]

23. I wager he wins tonight.

I wouldn't bank that 'he's gasping' stuff just yet.

[bicentennial_baby]

18. According to The Note...

"Here's what we can say: The Dean campaign has spent well in excess of $22 million nationally, including at least $3 million on television advertisements in Iowa alone. Several people familiar with the situation in Iowa, including David Redlawsk, a politically connected Democratic political scientist who tracks the issue, estimate that Dean has also spent more (probably much more than) $3 million — in staff, field operations and direct mail.

Based on other sourcing, we can say that Dean has spent more than $7 million on Iowa. The actual total, if it's ever known, will probably be a lot higher."

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

[Lobo_13]

21. So he's spent 22 mil

out of 40 mil. That leaves him with at least 18 mil not counting what he's raised since the beginning of the year.

He's doing okay with money.

And don't forget that much of that 22 mil has been to establish a presence in other states. He has a full time organization presence in the first 27 states.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. Best result for Kerry: Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, Edwards

Kerry needs to keep the momentum, but still be seen as the underdog -- if he wins Iowa, but Dean pulls a strong second, and especially if Gephardt ends up in third, then Dean is still the frontrunner in NH and it's Clark and Kerry battling to see who will deliver the KO punch. If Edwards beats Gephardt, there is a much more confused battle to see who will be the 'anti-Dean'.

[Cuban_Liberal]

9. Strong finishes by Kerry and Edwards REALLY hurt Clark, IMO.

Kerry will peel off the military/gravitas votes, and Edwards will peel off the "Southern candidate" votes. I see nothing but bad news coming out of Iowa for General Clark.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Dean indeed has a lot to lose

unless he wins by at least 3 or 4%, he will be seen as not so inevitable.
Personally, I am quite happy Kerry has come seemingly from nowhere, and is now clearly a viable candidate.

[Cuban_Liberal]

12. I don't agree.

Dean will remain strong and viable after tonight, whether he wins 'big', or not. He has a rock-colid 30% base that will not be peeled away from him, and if Kerry and Edwards do well tonight, suddenly Clark is no longer the 'un-Dean'.

Don't kid yourself--- Dean is formidable, and will remain so after tonight.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. Rock-solid -

yes, Dean may have a rock-solid base, but 30% ? That seems to be overstating it -- right now he is only at 28% in NH and significantly lower than that in Iowa... I'm thinking the rock-solid base is more like 15-20% -- for now.

But he still remains the one to beat, and the front-runner, IMHO.

[Cuban_Liberal]

16. We disagree on the number, but agree on the conclusion.

I actually meant in NH, and 28% is withing the MOE of 30%. I sorta used 30% as a reference point.

Dean remains formidable, and flush with cash. None of us can afford to ignore that, if we want our guy to become the nominee; $20 million plus a $1 million in new contributions each week makes on hell of an opponent for anyone.

:)

[Bucky]

13. Excellent forecasting & handicapping

You should do this for a living. Seriously. Dick Gephardt probably thinks he can survive coming in second. But if everybody else in the midwest is surging the question becomes, why not Gep? I still think he won't drop till after New Hampshire. If he waits till Feb 3rd, he'll end up embarrassing himself. He's been a great leader and he deserves the classiest possible exit. He'll probably end up as ambassador to Japan in the Clark/Kerry/Edwards/Dean administration.

God willing.

[Cuban_Liberal]

14. A 'class exit'.

I agree he needs to leave after NH, unless he actually wins tonight. I personally hope he stays in the House, and becomes Speaker when we retake it! :)

[Cuban_Liberal]

17. kick

[DisgustedDemocrat]

19. I've heard the pundits concur with your asessment that

Gephart is done tonight if he doesn't come in 1st. I've heard that more than once in the last few days, and it doesn't look like he's coming out on top in any poll.