Forget the polls, predict the COH

[Lobo_13]

By the end of NH, how much cash on hand do you think the candidates will have? This is probably more important than who wins or loses in IA or NH. Also include your prediction of money raised through NH.

Dean: 15,000,000 + 3,500,000 raised post 1/1/04
Clark: 8,000,000 + 2,000,000 raised post 1/1/04
Kerry: 2,000,000 + 1,500,000 raised post 1/1/04
Gephardt: Out
Edwards: 2,000,000 raised post 1/1/04
Leiberman: Out
Sharpton: Out
Kucinich: Out

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. OK

Dean: $18-20 million.
Clark: $10 million
Kerry: $5-6 million
Gephardt: $1 million
Edwards: $3-4 million
Leiberman: Out
Sharpton: Out
Kucinich: Under $1 million

[arewethereyet]

2. not sure it matters

success at the voting place creates money.

People like to place safe bets.

[Lobo_13]

3. It's probably the most important factor

Votes cost money. Whoever emerges from NH with the most money holds a serious advantage in later states. Especially if it goes past super-tuesday.

[arewethereyet]

4. as I said before, the money will come

the serious money has yet to be donated despite Dr Dean's internet success.

[Lobo_13]

6. But will it come in time?

Don't forget that this is likely to be over by the middle of March. 5-6 weeks is a tight schedule when you have to campaign as well as raise money.

I'm not saying it's inevitable, just that the person with the most resources has the advantage.

[democratreformed]

5. What bothers me about all these "money" threads:

If we are to accept the fact that the one with the most money wins, then why are we to not just "give up" b/c not on of our candidates has come anywhere close to the current administration.

Seriously, would someone do a better job of explaining this to me? If money is the most important thing, haven't we already lost? If not, why not?

Help!

[Lobo_13]

7. We're not talking about the GE

We're talking about the primary.

The jury is still out on whether ANY candidate can beat Bush in raising, because the real flood won't start until the nom is decided.

But Dean has the advantage at this moment.

[arewethereyet]

8. money IS very significant but its not the guarantee

the right guy with the right message delivered effectively can do more with limited funds than the wrong guy with the wrong plan delivered well.

There is a lot of money available to the guy who can make people believe in him. And there are ways to get money working within the campaing finance rules.

We've a long way to go and victory to anyone is not assured.

[Lobo_13]

9. Victory is not assured

but ignoring natural advantages of your opponent is no way to win, either.