Jerseyans like Dean but like Bush more

[Freddie Stubbs]

Once for Gore, N.J. gets off donkey

Sunday, January 18, 2004

BY JOHN HASSELL
Star-Ledger Staff

Even as candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination scramble for support in tomorrow's Iowa caucuses, a new Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll suggests the eventual winner of the primary election season will face an uphill battle against President Bush in November.

New Jersey, a state considered reliably Democratic in recent years, favors Bush over his Democratic challengers, 41 percent to 38 percent, according to the telephone poll of 904 adults that was conducted between Jan. 7 and Jan. 13 and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

While the survey's results could indicate Garden State voters -- the Democrats, in particular -- are waiting to see who Bush's opponent will be, a tight race in New Jersey would augur well for Bush's re-election.

more: http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-13/107440889264140.xml

[rfranklin]

1. Absolute garbage...

The headline is totally misleading--further into the story the pollster basically says the survey is a load.

There is no Democratic nominee, so loyalties are split amongst six potential candidates, and the margin of error is bigger than the gap between Bush and anonymous.

[ramapo]

2. Wishful thinking?

Few in NJ are paying much attention yet. Only the political junkies.

We have a Dem. governor, two Dem Senators, Dem-controlled state legislature. Gore won here without trying. NJ had few if any campaign visits in '00. Bush isn't going to take NJ without a fight.

This poll is very close and rather meaningless at this point.

[NJCher]

3. this quote ought to tell you something

...Bob Benthien, a 54-year-old retiree who lives in Basking Ridge, nothing any Democratic challenger can do or say will shake them from choosing Bush

Who is 54 and retired and lives in Basking Ridge, one of the state's most expensive communities?



Cher

[rogerashton]

4. That's paper thin

this time of year!

[Melodybe]

5. My grandparents live across the GW bridge and they know absolutely no Rep

My grandma said that her repub friends all regret voting for Bush. She doesn't know one person that is still republican. This poll is garbage!

[Jerseycoa]

8. North Jersey

Very different culture from the rest of the state. The poll results don't surprise me, but I think they have little ultimate meaning. New Jersey likes to swing. A few years ago in my township we threw all the Republicans out. This past election, they're all back again. It goes that way. But I do see Dem in the GE this time with the right candidate.

[Jerseycoa]

6. They should never predict NJ

We are ornery bastards and the Star-Ledger knows it. However, I feel the state going Dem in the GE, ABB.

[CMT]

7. a 3-point edge for Bush

and only 41% is hardly an overwhelming endorsement for the incumbent.

[leyton]

9. Perhaps that's because there's no nominee yet.

The Republican ticket already has two faces on it. (Actually, since they're two-faced, that would be four faces.) The Democratic ticket is still in the abstract. I suspect once we nominate someone, our numbers will improve there.

[rockymountaindem]

10. I think that's true of everywhere

People prefer putting a face to the name. Also, we should be getting some more airtime for our candidate to express their views later on, not to mention any ads that may be needed. Stu Rothenburg said that NJ is now solidly Dem. I don't know what that's worth but it's a good sign.