Mayer says it's Dean...

[Duder]

Andrew R. Cline, Ph.D., from http://rhetorica.net/ has posted his "prediction" for the Democratic nomination. Whether one agrees or not with the Mayer predictive model, the blog has a lot of interesting insights on the press-politics of the presidential primary process, as well as rhetorical analysis of campaign speeches.

'The Mayer predictive model, which has correctly predicted 9 out of the last ten primary campaigns since 1980, says the nomination goes to the candidate who meets these two conditions: 1) Leads in the last national Gallup poll before the Iowa caucuses, and 2) Raised campaign funds most effectively by the end of the year preceding the Iowa caucuses.

Howard Dean meets both conditions, therefore the model predicts that Dean will win the Democratic nomination. For one explanation about why this model works, I encourage you to read my essay on the topic. For another, perhaps more cogent reason, I urge you to read Dr. William Mayer's original essay (cited in my essay).'