Will Gephardt Drop out?

[Perky]

THe DM Register poll shows Gephardt possibly finishing 4th in Iowa. He is not going to do well in NH and fugeddabout SC. I am betting if he finished fourth He calls it quits.

SO the wuestion is WHere does his support go... ANd what does Manufacturing Labor do now?

[jmaier]

1. less than 2nd

and he's gone for sure imo. In terms of where his supporters go? I don't know but suspect that they divvy up pretty evenly among Dean, Clark, Kerry and perhaps Edwards. I'd say Lieberman could pick up some though he's likely to be knocked out shortly as well.

His labor/anti-NAFTA supporters really don't have a natural home left besides Kucinich and that doesn't seem likely so -- who knows?

[Perky]

5. Sure gives Big Labor a black eye

2nd time this year.


THey were supposed to come out lockstep for Cruz Bustmante.. and really failed to deliver. Does not bode well for Michigan and Ohio in Novemeber in my view.

[fujiyama]

6. Gep may stay on...

for a little while if he ends up a close second...He's running second in MI (albeit it somewhat distant)...But, if he has a poor showing, he'll definetely drop within the next few days...

I think Edwards will probably get many of his voters...His economic policies are probably closest to Gep's (other than Kucinich of course)...

Either way, as someone else pointed out, Gep's done for, for the simple fact that he's already spent so much -- somewhat similar to what happened in '88.=

[kentuck]

2. If he loses Iowa, he may stay thru NH....but he would only be denying

the obvious. The question would then be, who gets Gephardts voters? I would think Kerry and Edwards might benefit moreso than Dean? We will know a lot more after the NH primary...

[NoPasaran]

9. If he loses badly in Iowa

Won't it be because he doesn't have many voters to begin with?

[kentuck]

10. He has a substantial amount of support....

just not enough to win the nomination, in my opinion. However, he has more support than Sharpton, Lieberman, or Kucinich, in my opinion. His endorsement will mean a lot to the eventual nominee.

[hellhathnofury]

3. Yeup.

[Lobo_13]

4. He's out even if he finishes 1st

He just won't be able to run an effective campaign after IA, regardless of the outcome. He might get a small boost going into NH, but he's out after that.

Unless Gep has been working behind the scenes, it's going to be difficult for any unions to retool towards another candidate. They'll probably disperse.

[goodhue]

7. depends on the numbers

a bad fourth place finish would likely lead to withdrawal.
but a very strong second or a third with a very bunched up pack can be spun for survival.

[arewethereyet]

8. the other son of a working man is the obvious choice

they need some new champions anyway.

[AndyTiedye]

11. The American Labor Movement Is Dead

So their endorsements don't really matter anymore.

[arewethereyet]

12. you could be right, we'll find out this evening

this really is a referendum on them as a political entity. Gephardt has staked all his considerable political equity in their ability to deliver the goods. If they fail him... well it won't be a good thing.

[kentuck]

15. They are not dead...they are just not as powerful as in the past...

But no one will turn down the endorsement of any of the larger labor unions. They do not have enough members to sway an election but they have enough to make a difference in a primary or a caucus...

[cthrumatrix]

13. i think this is the reason for edwards surge

[dusty64]

14. Not in top 2,

he is finished. Would it be too late for him to run in the Missouri Senate race?