Kerry: 35.6% Dean: 16.4% Edwards: 34.8% Gephardt 12.3%

[WilliamPitt]

http://press.caucus2004.org/caucus/leaderboard.shtml

That's a private press tracker we at truthout were given access to. These are the numbers at 8:30pm. Don't try to click; it's password protected. I wanted to put the link there so people don't think I'm just inventing numbers.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Say WHAT?

:wtf:

I thought Iowa was all about Dean and Gebhardt? Wow.

[Jack Rabbit]

2. Doesn't do most of us any good, Will

Authorization required.

[WilliamPitt]

3. Just wanted to give you a reference

so you didn't think I was pulling these numbers out of my ass.

[creativelcro]

18. The numbers are at http://www.caucus2004.org/caucus/leaderboard.shtml

http://www.caucus2004.org/caucus/leaderboard.shtml
No need for your link...

[TomNickell]

50. Except you can't get to the link, 'cause there's so many people trying.

[lancdem]

23. Um, nice visual, Will

Thanks for sharing. :)

[MuseRider]

4. WTG Kerry!

So far this is pretty interesting. I am having too many nerves to actually watch. Damn.

[never cry wolf]

5. Authorization required for the link

But great news!

[Bolo Boffin]

6. Hey Will, if Gep doesn't make 15%, where will his voters go?

I'm betting Kerry.

Well, I don't have any money on it...

[SadEagle]

13. You're misunderstanding the 15% rule for Caucuses.

It's happening at each precinct level, not globally. So this is actual delegates for Gep already.

[Bolo Boffin]

19. Sorry that I wasn't clear...

I knew that it's the 15% at the precinct level. But if Gephardt is hitting around 15%, I'd say odds are there will be a high number of precincts that he doesn't hit 15% in, which means his supporters there will have to choose another, correct?

And I'm thinking that overall, they will pick Kerry.

Sorry for that misunderstanding. :)

[sistersofmercy]

20. Yes, Gephardt voters will most likely go to Kerry.

Across the board, after this as well, from St louis Missouri, Peace.

[Maddy McCall]

7. Thanks so much Will; how many precincts reporting.

This is great news for those of us who support Kerry and Edwards.

What percent is reporting?

[WilliamPitt]

8. 118

[Maddy McCall]

15. Thanks

[SangamonTaylor]

14. small towns are giving kerry/edwards an early bump

I'd guess the larger cities (with younger people) will come in later. I couldn't imagine them being done so early with such large #'s.

[The Magistrate]

28. There Will Not be Too Much Difference, Sir

Burlington and Des Moines and the like are not much more than larger towns in their make up....

[askew]

9. Thanks for the update.

It's horrible news in my opinion. But, what the polls predicted.

I am assuming it's the smaller cities/precints that have reported first.

Did it say anything about turnout?

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

21. ugh

amazing how susceptible people are to the corporate media

feels like november 2002 all over again

[incapsulated]

10. Wow

Can Kerry possibly keep that kind of lead?

[Paragon]

11. Duh

Out of how many precincts reporting, Will? :eyes:

[mb7588a]

12. knew it all along!

woooooohoooooooooooooooo
:bounce: :toast:

[Native]

16. I just pulled the same results from this site

http://209.234.69.20/leaderboard.shtml

[windansea]

25. that server is working better

[Native]

29. So far so good

[The Magistrate]

17. It Would Seem, Mr. Pitt

People are making their decision according to their own perceptions of electability. The rank and file of the Party wants nothing more than the rout of the criminals of the '00 Coup at the polls this fall, and means to secure it.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Rowdyboy]

22. Concise, to the point, and

correct...Well said

[Jack Rabbit]

31. That very well could be, sir

I recall past Iowa winners going on to go nowhere (recall George Bush in 1980), but I'd say that if these early figures hold up the pressure is on Dr. Dean to win New Hampshire next week. I don't mean do well -- I mean win.

I don't consider Dean unelectable. Kucinich and Sharpton would get little support from the entrist indepentents and Lieberman wouldn't be able to hold the left flank of his own party; they're the ones who would have the biggest problems. But it appears that the conventional wisdom may be that Kerry and Edwards are more electable and that is what is being reflected thus far tonight.

[The Magistrate]

43. Gov. Dean Is Not Un-Electable, My Friend

He does, though, strike me as a little more difficult to elect than some others would be. His greatest asset is his combativeness: he will not take things lying down, and people like a fighter. But he can be easily caricatured, and he will have difficulty pressing the case against the war to the general electorate, it seems to me.

[Jack Rabbit]

47. That is a problem all our candidates face, sir

None of them go into this race well known nationally. Each of them are susceptible to being saddle with a negative impression from an opponent.

Of course, a common enemy they all have -- and we have -- is the Bush White House. Mr. Rove is a master propagandist. He can be expected to take advantage of the public's general unfamiliarity with our candidates.

[The Magistrate]

51. Indeed, Sir

Each will be assailed mercilessly, and we must be prepared for it. One important factor in our decision must be a consideration of which will be less vulnerable to expected lines of attack. That is why you see me supporting Gen. Clark. In my judgement, he is less vulnerable to the usual "soft on defense" line the Republicans are accustomed to make such great play with, and which the public is prone to accept as so.

[Jack Rabbit]

54. I hate to say watch them, but watch them

If they could morph a man who lost three limbs in Vietnam into an Osama sympathizer, then they can make a four-star general into a peacenik.

Still, that is one of Clark's strengths. I am not committed, but he is high on my list.

Dr. Dean is also high, because, as you say, he won't take things laying down.

After tonight, I may be looking at Senator Kerry again. A few weeks ago, I was ready to bury him.

[Leilani]

34. That is what the Entrance Polls are Showing

People voting on electability..

Also entrance polls are showing anti-war people are voting with Kerry.

[Cocoa]

44. that's all I want

winning isn't enough, Bush must be humiliated, and any republican that stands with him must pay for it.

[WilliamPitt]

24. UPDATE: 263 precincts reporting

Kerry: 36.6%
Edwards: 33.9%
Dean: 17.6%
Gephardt: 10.9%

[incapsulated]

26. Edwards is closing in...

This is getting interesting!

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

27. I think I'm getting a boner

[Langis]

30. Me to

And I'm at work! This is a problem!

[AP]

33. I'm having palpitations.

[Rowdyboy]

36. Damn you!!!!!

I'm choking! Seriously choking it back!

Well, hell, if you are, I might as well too!

It is that sort of night, isn't it?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

37. Don't start a "Raise your hand if" thread

:evilgrin: I'm BUSY!!!

[tishaLA]

45. I know that nothing

shocks YOU anymore, but these results are shocking to me. I'd hoped for something like this, but to see it happening is amazing.

[curse10]

56. LMAO!

:-)

[sistersofmercy]

39. I support Kerry but...

I do feel bad for Gephardt. Being from St Louis, I almost feel like a traitor, almost...I just think Kerry is the man for the job.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

42. I can sympathize but Gep did a horrible job as minority leader

and after the Rose Garden ceremony... I don't think ANYONE could be a bigger traitor to him than he wa to his own party.

[sistersofmercy]

46. Well...

He is a man of the people around these parts, very much respected and loved but most don't believe he has what it takes to be president. I believe most Gephardt supporters will easily switch to Kerry in the event Geppy drops out.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

Agreed..I don't think this means they love him any less for his advocacy

but his LEADERSHIP skills were less than sufficient given the job and I think that may have played out in people's hearts, minds and votes..don't get me wrong..i don't dislike Gep..but to say I am disappointed in him is an understatement.

[sistersofmercy]

53. No I understand.

Perhaps, he should run for the senate. I had hoped for a while he'd be in the VP position but I don't think that is going to happen at this point either. If Kerry and Edwards team up, they'd be unstoppable.

[Native]

32. What gives with the pics?

Why is Kerry's the only one without a coat & tie?

[Tim_in_HK]

35. How many precints are there in Iowa? n/t

[Native]

38. 1993 precincts

http://209.234.69.20/leaderboard.shtml

[spooky3]

40. UPDATE 390 of 1993 precincts

Dean 18%
Edwards 34.3%
Gephardt 10.5%
Kerry 36.3%

per
http://www.caucus2004.org/caucus/leaderboard.shtml

[WilliamPitt]

48. 645 of 1993 precincts reporting

Kerry: 37.1
Edwards: 33.0
Dean: 17.7
Gephardt: 10.8

That 10.8 for Gep may go to Kerry, which would seal the deal.

[diamondsoul]

55. So Will are you dancing yet?

I am, and yes, I know I'm a freak. LOL

[Langis]

41. 390 reporting

Kerry - 36.3%
Edwards 34.3%
Dean - 18%
Gep - 10.5%

[MaineDem]

49. This is great news for Kerry

Here's hoping the momentum continues!!!

I'm a nervous wreck.

[bigtree]

52. Gov. Dean conceded Iowa to Sen. Kerry on Larry King

congragulated him and Sen. Edwards. He said it looks like Sen. Kerry wins. :toast: