what happens if Bush does NOT ban Abortion Rights ?

[JI7]

the republicans have for years blamed the democrats for this in order to get support from the social conservatives. they have even made some inroads into catholic voters based on the abortion issue.

but the Republicans can't really blame anyone else now. even the religious right is talking about how they will hold their party accountable. these are the people who also do the most in helping the republican party with grassroots campaigning and GOTV. it will be interesting to see what they do if the Republicans in office don't deliver.

but if Bush DID ban abortion rights,i imagine there will be a backlash among the "security moms"(and dads). they will see how it affects them personally when their teenage daughter comes home pregnant and is unable to get safe legal access to abortion if she wants one. her whole life they had planned out for her would be put on hold. the same goes for the boy who helped get her pregnant.

[Radical Activist]

1. They will never ban abortion rights

They know they will lose the next election. It's an issue they use to manipulate voters, but most of the top leadership of the GOP doesn't want to ban abortion. They may make some minor restrictions, which will be obnoxious but will not overturn Roe v. Wade.
There will always be a liberal to blame for abortion being legal. They'll find an excuse. They need it for the next election.

[Bush was AWOL]

11. Bingo!

Exactly what I've been trying to tell my single issue voting friends.

[Hippo_Tron]

20. Wishful thinking...

They have to act or the fundies will stay home next time around.

[illflem]

2. Considering something like 59% of the US favors keeping

RvsW intact it would be political suicide for anyone supporting it's overturn.
I doubt it's going to happen.

[Uzybone]

3. Anyone with a brain knows they wont do it

all the hysteria on this site is a waste of time. They will restrict it......in Africa and South America , they will try and pass laws that they know will fail, they will pass some laws that make it harder for the young and poor (who noone really cares about) to do it, they will talk about it over and over, but they will not actually do it. The anti abortion folks who align themselves with the GOP are amongst the biggest fools in our political spectrum today.

[Inland]

5. You're right: they will fight over marginal restrictions

that will hurt only the poor, or unlucky, just enough to tell the anti abortion zealots that they are working on the cause but not so much as to cause a backlash.

My prediction is, no restrictions that couldn't be overcome by someone with adequate health care and means to take a few days off work.

[LostInAnomie]

4. They will loose a lot of support from the fundies...

... Not that they won't anyway. They have based their campaigns of the disingenuous idea that they truly want to do away with abortion but Democrats have stopped them. The result has been a party based solely on wedge issues. Now because they are the overwhelming majority they face a difficult choice. They can legislate and pass their constituents positions on the wedge issues and have nothing left to campaign on, or they can do nothing. Either way they will eventually lose support.

*edit* Whoops! Typo.

[CatholicEdHead]

6. Thats why they now have "Gay Marriage"

as another wedge issue. If RvW is not overturned, "activist judges" will be blamed and the Democrats will also be blamed for holding up the process just enough. It will always be someone other than the Republicans' fault.

Most "pro-live"ers do not know they are being played every election.

[zara]

7. supreme court overturning a constitutional right...

does not require a "ban". It requires a balance-changing appointment, meaning two of O'Connor, Kennedy, Ginsberg, Souter, Breyer, Stephens are replaced with far right wingnuts. Repugs will just say its not a constitutional right, let the states decide (like medical marijuana? but repug hypocrisy is not the issue here). Then the states one by one decide. bans likely in many red states. But ban not on bush's hands, on the state legislatures.

[Skink]

8. Damned if the do Damned if they don't

If they do it they won't get back in without massive fraud. When has that ever happened. If they don't those 4 million evangelicals will probably just stay home in 08.

[gasperc]

9. well, that 1million plus new babies, most born into poverty

great for the economy and adoption agencies right?? nope the burden would be staggering. What will be interesting will be the draconian measures the government will institute to slow down the birth rate since the explosion of poverty among children and single women will overwhelm local, state and federal agencies.

[Sparkly]

10. They'll blame Evil Libruls. n/t

[Bush was AWOL]

12. If they don't overturn it they'll lose the next national election

for sure. The evangelicals that showed up this time will realize that the GOP was using them to win and will hopefully no longer show up.

[ComerPerro]

14. If they were capable of realizing when they are being used

they wouldn't be fundamentalists or evangelicals, now would they?

[The Flaming Red Head]

13. Sick, dying, girlfriends, sisters, mothers, wives (if he bans it)

You demonize a group and give them a label, Bush won because he cheated not because of an imaginary group called security moms who may someday need to make an informed decision that won't kill them or destroy their health.

[liberalpragmatist]

15. They're not going to ban abortion - they'll instead undo the New Deal

The real goal of Bush with the SC is not to overturn Roe v. Wade. It's to restore "the Constitution-in-exile" and overturn most government regulation as out-of-bounds for the Federal government since it has nothing to do with interstate commerce.

Read up on Bush's possible judicial nominees. Many of them are socially libertarian but rabidly anti-government and will seek to destroy the entire welfare state.

[deadparrot]

16. IMHO, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Either way, they're losing a huge chunk of support.

Ban it, and you lose the moderates and that 60% of the population who wants to keep it legal.

Don't ban it, and you lose the fundie evagelicals, Catholics, "pro-life" crowd, etc.

[youngred]

17. Nothing, and they probably won't

they can't afford to give all those single issue voters back to the dems

[Yupster]

18. He'll keep the issue alive

by fighting for parental notification next. No move to ban, but the fundies will be happy Bush is trying to do something.

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Ban will be done on the state level, but Roe WILL be overturned...

If the fundies don't get this, they will be sitting at home the next election and the GOP knows it. Bush can come out in favor of only banning late term abortions (a popular position because people don't understand why late term abortions are performed), but the fundies still get what they want because white male state legislators will ban abortion in all forms.