I am sure that there are some flaws in the "rationale" here, but cannot put my finger on them. - QE
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The Wall Street Journal
December 13, 2004
COMMENTARY
The Blue-State Tax Burden
By MARC SUMERLIN
December 13, 2004; Page A16
Of all the Democratic complaints about the presidential election, the most interesting and ironic came from Lawrence O'Donnell, a leading party strategist and former aide to Sen. Pat Moynihan. He complained on MSNBC that, "The segment of the country that pays for the federal government is now being governed by the people who don't pay for the federal government." Mr. O'Donnell added for good measure, "Ninety percent of the red states are welfare client states of the federal government."
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Consider deep blue Connecticut and vivid red Oklahoma. Both have roughly the same number of people, five Congressmen and seven electoral votes. Last year, 1.66 million Connecticut tax filers paid $19.1 billion in personal taxes on $107 billion of adjusted gross income. That makes for an average tax rate of 17.9% in Connecticut. In the same year, 1.5 million Oklahoma tax filers paid $6.6 billion in personal taxes on $54 billion in adjusted gross income; an average tax rate of 12.2%.
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The cost of living in Connecticut is much higher than in Oklahoma. One index of cost of living differentials shows that an income of $130,000 in Connecticut is equivalent to $90,000 in Oklahoma. That means families at those incomes are equally well-off and under standard tax theories about fairness should pay the same share of their income in taxes. Currently, a family of four making $130,000 pays $20,450 in income taxes, or 15.7%, while the family making $90,000 pays $8,450, or 9.4%. If both families were taxed at the Oklahoma rate, the Connecticut family would pay $8,200 less. What to do? One obvious point is that if you have a federal income tax, you can't have tax rates that vary by state. However, this leads inescapably to the mathematical fact that flat taxes are not only simpler by most measures, they are also the only way to deal with the type of unfairness that Mr. O'Donnell complains about. Flatter is fairer.
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But from an employer's point of view, it is quite difficult to justify these kinds of differentials, particularly when they are exacerbated by tax differences. As higher-wage jobs leave the overtaxed, higher-cost areas, both the local economy and the state's tax base decline. This often creates a need to raise state and local taxes still further, making those states and regions still less competitive.
The result is that even though most of the taxes are still paid in high-cost states as a legacy of their industrial past, most of the economic growth in the U.S. has taken place in lower-cost, lower-tax states. For example, between 1977 and 2001, real gross state product in New York rose 2.6% annually, 10% below the national average; but it rose 3.6% per year in Texas, 20% faster than the rest. Importantly, this occurred over a period of time in which the real price of oil fell sharply, much to the disadvantage of Texas; it responded by diversifying its industrial base by offering an attractive business environment.
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Mr. Sumerlin is managing director of The Lindsey Group.
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