2000 Election: What Did the Final Battleground State Polls Show?

[liberalpragmatist]

This year, the battleground state polls as a whole were pretty accurate. Whatever you think the outcome of Ohio is (I tend to think Bush won narrowly but that were were some irregularities) there really weren't any big surprises this year. Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa had been leaning narrowly Bush in most polls, Minnesota and Wisconsin had been barely leaning Kerry, Michigan and Pennsylvania narrowly leaning Kerry, NH narrowly leaning Kerry. The two states that seemed to be unable to poll were Ohio and Florida - some polls had Kerry ahead, some Bush.

In other words, this year, there were few surprises. Most of the EV predictions came pretty close with Ohio and Florida being the variables.

In 2000, how did the final results square with the pre-election polls? Was Gore leading in Missouri, Tennessee, NH, W.Va., or Arkansas (which he lost narrowly)? Was he behind in states that he won like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, and Iowa? What did the Florida polls show?

Does somebody have a link to battleground state polls in 2000?

[Zynx]

1. The polls were all over the place.

They showed things like us being competitive in LA and AR which wasn't the case and they showed Bush competitive in CA and DE. Battlegrounds varied a great deal as well. Generally, the numbers favored Bush a little bit.

[IndyOp]

2. TIA just posted a graph comparing exit polls to votes state by state

in 2000 and 2004:

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x193452>

[liberalpragmatist]

3. Thanks, but I was looking more for pre-election polls

Not exit polls.

But that was still an interesting read. Thanks.

[Yupster]

5. The pre-election polls this time

got it just about right.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bush did a little worse than his pre-election polls in 2000 because the drunk driving story came out the last weekend and probably cost him 1-2 %.

[IndyOp]

4. Pre-election polls...

I haven't seen anything about 2000 pre-election polls, but if you are trying to get a sense of what was happening in the 2004 polls it looks like Chorti is going to post some interesting data tomorrow:

He says 'exit polls' in his post, but refers to pre-election polls...

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x193452#193503>

:kick:

[tritsofme]

6. Here's a summary from Kos

http://cadem.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/15/182225/06

None of my links for 2000 state polls work any more.