For New Hampshire, All Bets Are Off

[WilliamPitt]

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/primaries/new_hampshire/articles/2004/01/20/for_nh_all_bets_are_off/

For N.H., all bets are off

By Peter S. Canellos, Globe Staff, 1/20/2004

DES MOINES -- John F. Kerry's stunning win in the Iowa caucuses yesterday sets up a duel in next week's New Hampshire primary between two leaders from neighboring states, each vying to claim a fresh breath of momentum before the campaign heads to the less-friendly South.

But neither Kerry nor former Vermont governor Howard Dean is a sure bet to win. North Carolina Senator John Edwards, whose campaign has barely registered in New Hampshire, will get a new look based on his second-place showing in Iowa.

And those candidates who just campaigned through near-zero temperatures in Iowa will confront a bracing reality of a different sort in New Hampshire: Retired General Wesley K. Clark has spent weeks boosting his effort in the Granite State.

In the final analysis, the Iowa caucuses may actually have ended up boosting more candidates than they knocked down.

"Kerry and Edwards are the clear winners here," said Michael Feldman, a former aide to Al Gore and now an unaligned Democratic consultant. "Clearly, they get the biggest boost going into New Hampshire. If Iowa demonstrated anything, it's that momentum trumps organization. So people in New Hampshire will be looking at the race with new eyes."

The best news for Kerry seemed to be that voters bought him whole. Polls of voters going to the caucuses showed they valued his experience and agreed with him on issues ranging from foreign affairs to health care.

Iowans also appeared to find his demeanor presidential. Those kinds of endorsements don't fade as quickly as an appealing message.

...more...

[ewagner]

1. "momentum trumps organization"

This is contrary to everything I ever learned about campaigns.

I was dead wrong in my predictions last night because I weighted them heavily on traditional organization of campaigns. (Gephardt with Union organizations and Dean's dedicated and well-organized minions). I began doubting my predictions when Carville on Crossfire yesterday afternoon mentioned that Kerry had some of the best campaign people in the business working for him in Iowa, but they were really not a visible as the other tow campaigns I mentioned.

What all this tells me is that we are, indeed, in another world in this campaign and I haven't got the foggiest idea of how to predict the outcome with any degree of certainty.

Two confusing lessons from Iowa:

1. Unions don't have the power they used to have.
2. Anti-war sentiment is not the most important issue in selecting a candidate.

Where is this all going?

I don't have a clue.

[Robb]

5. It taught me something, too

...something I knew, but hadn't really internalized:

Carville has forgotten more about campaigns than I will ever know. :)

[SpiralHawk]

10. Kerry lookin good to strike Granite

"Unless your family owns an oil or pharmaceutical company, there is no reason they should support the Republican party."

[lovedems]

6. I think the war is a big issue, I think a mistake that has been made is

making it the ONLY issue. There's an entire range of ammunition that should be used against the chimp. It is not only about the war but about jobs, healthcare, education, medicare, crony capitalism, ETC. ETC. ETC. I think the lesson to be learned is not focus mainly on the war but cover everything.

The stats. that I saw out of Iowa were 74% of the voters were against the war. It is a big deal.

[Paragon]

2. I bet they're on.

See what I did there? You said they were off, I said they were on. I went the other way.

:silly:

[WilliamPitt]

4. You slay me

:)

[Democrats unite]

3. I agree...

People should take not take to much stock in polls this week. NH is going to be a roller coaster ride from hell for all the candidates.

[bigwillq]

7. Polls will be a "roller coaster"

I agree but the last poll from Iowa before the caucus did show Kerry, Edwards and Dean in that order.

[bearfartinthewoods]

8. people said the iowa polls were off too.....

[SpiralHawk]

9. Ye Olde Spiral Hawk Omen Reading + Bush-NH Prophecy

I've been posting this all over the place. But on account of a big NE Patriots win last Sunday, and general whatever, here it is again -- my "omenous" take on Bush in the NH Primary:

(You are welcome to copy this, and e-mail it to Republican voters in NH. Help make a dream come true.)

May 3, 2003 -- high up on the flank of Cannon Mountain in Franconia Notch, NH -- the Old Man of the Mountain lost his face - literally - the day after Bush pulled his pilot-with-a-swagger stunt on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln ("Mission Accomplished").

I was struck by the sequence of events. Bush prances on Abe Lincoln deck, the noble Old Man of the Mountain loses face immediately thereafter. What's going on here?

Bush Prances Carrier Deck in Flight Suit - May 2, 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2993415.stm

Old Man story - May 3, 2003:
http://gonewengland.about.com/cs/nhhistory/l/bloldmanofmtn.htm

For Granite Staters -- and all who had ever seen him -- the collapse of the Old Man's face was a First Class tragedy -- because the Old Man was a symbol of honesty, dignity, and honor -- and he seemed eternal.

I always thought of the Old Man's profile as embodying the same qualities as Old "Honest Abe" Lincoln, whose profile is so familiar to us from the penny. So I was deeply saddened to see him "lose face," and could not help but note that it came right after Bush pulled that bald-faced PR stunt on the deck of our nation's Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

After lying to America, our soldiers and the world, what right did Bush have to celebrate himself and "Declare Victory"? Hundreds of our soldiers have died and been wounded since that day, not to mention the ongoing misery for their families at home and the families in Iraq.

At the time I took this monumental loss of face in the Granite State as a sign that Bush was boasting shamelessly, comporting himself without honor or dignity.

After all, as we now know the Iraq war is based completely on BushCo fabrications, and Iraq had no WMDs and no connection to 9/11. This is a war of aggression and conquest. That's why our young men and women are dying over there -- it has nothing to do with national defense or our true honor. It has a lot to do with power and oil.

Now that I have read Sevethson's posting about the Republican candidacy of John Buchanan in the NH primary, I see things in a different light. I see the loss of face of the Old Man of the Mountain as an Omen that G.W. Bush may well lose face before the voters of NH.

Will the truth emerge? Will Bush be unmasked for who he really is before or during the NH primary? We shall see.

Here's the DU thread discussing the R. candidacy of john Buchanan against G. W. Bush in the NH primary.

His campaign -- and his research -- are sincere, and worthy of every voter's consideration.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=980708

John Buchanan “Campaign Manifesto”
Issues, Questions & Answers
January 1, 2004

WHY I’M RUNNING
A CHALLENGE TO
THE PRESS & THE PUBLIC.

Web site at http://www.johnbuchanan.org

It’s YOUR country.
Stand up for it – NOW.

[Adjoran]

11. In politics, expect the unexpected

Of course all bets are off. Only fools bet on NH a month before the primary anyway.

NH voters have a long and proud history of shaking things up and confounding pundits and pollsters. McCarthy in 1968, Hart in 1984, Buchanan in '92 and '96, McCain in 2000.

As of last Friday, NH polls showed that 40% of those who voiced a preference also said their vote could change before the primary.

To me, Edwards is the one taking a big chance. It would make more sense to concentrate on SC, where he needs to beat Clark, than to hope he can make a dent in the NH field against others who have spent so much time and money there. If he comes in third or a very strong and close fourth, he will keep some momentum, but at the risk of losing it all a week later if he loses SC.

For Dean to reassert his momentum and frontrunner status, he needs to win NH with 30% or more.

[GalleryGod]

12. Deans "Bar" is Astronomically High,Now! Needs a Blow-out !?

Needs 30+% of the field..a "muddled 4 WAy" is a LOSS.:hangover:

[windansea]

13. cartoon