Bush Math, or When Is 4 Percent Really 32 Percent ?

[kentuck]

http://www.interventionmag.com/cms/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=970

<snip>
The Bush Administration is gearing up for their sale of “Social Security Reform,” and if the early leaked reports are any indication, it will not be a model of honesty and clarity. The earliest reported blurb is a brief and thoroughly muddled bit of numerical trickery. According to published reports, the Administration is suggesting the diversion of 4 percentage points of the 12.4 percent federal payroll tax to private savings accounts.

That makes it sound like only a trivial amount of money would go into the private accounts, and implies that the amount is so small that it won’t have much impact on payments to current retirees or the federal deficit. But that’s wrong; 4 percentage points of 12.4 percent is 32 percent. Therefore, 32 percent of the workers’ total contribution would be earmarked for private investment.

<snip>
Now, under the guise of “reform,” they are attempting to destroy the program. They ignore the purpose of its creation by suggesting that it is a retirement system, and say that it could make more money for beneficiaries by investing in public equities in the stock market. But again this ignores the very purpose of the system.

We shouldn’t be surprised that Bush and his Republican allies are willing to twist numbers and misstate history to get their way. We’ve seen them do it in the past, most notably with weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Then dissenting voices were shouted down. Many people couldn’t believe their own government would be so blatant with misstatements and half truths. Bush got away with it, but the results have been terrible. We can’t afford to let him get away with it again.

[Ilsa]

1. Does this mean we'll also see a run-up

of the stock market again as funds are flooded into the market, competing for securities? Sounds like a very dangerous game to me.

[rzemanfl]

3. Who owns stocks?

Bush's rich friends who are going to get out of the market with oodles of cash and leave the poor folks holding the bag.

[Ilsa]

4. Alot of us that have been working for twenty+ years

have some savings in stocks and mutual funds, especially from companies that gave stock as matching funds to 401(k)s, but certainly not enough to live off of. It would be used up in no time of we lost work. That path is probably the only way I could have gotten into having stocks as part of my long term savings.

[rzemanfl]

12. With all due respect to your investments, the folks that hold

big blocks of stock are the rich folks that teamed up with the religous right to bless us with *. For example, Bernie Kerik and his $6 million for nothing stock deal. Lots of us (and I've been working for more than forty years) have little pieces of the stock market pie. Social Security is insurance not an investment. After Enron, MCI and all the rest people should be scared as hell of Bush's crazy scheme. As far as I'm concerned he can "fix" Social Security AFTER he fixes Iraq. Since Iraq won't be fixed in my lifetime I'd feel better about my Social Security if that were the case. I think the whole deal is to further enrich *'s friends and to cover up the fact that all the extra money that went into Social Security was used by the government and replaced with IOU's.

[kentuck]

13. I agree...

Let him "fix" one "crisis" at a time...before he messes up something else.

[Ilsa]

16. ITA with what you are saying. It's just that your original post

asked who owned stocks as if no one did unless they were super wealthy. Yeah, what we own is almost insignificant compared to those big block owners.

They will be the ones bailing out and leaving us holding the bag, as you say. If some of them get stung along with us, it isn't as if they won't be able to survive on their other assets. The rest of us, meanwhile, will have nothing, except (hopefully) the roof over our heads. And we won't be able to pay the property taxes if our retirement investments all go belly up.

I think we are all in agreement that this SS reform is a huge scam on the middle and lower classes. DimSon has alot of other problems of his own making to fix before he screws this up.

[BlueEyedSon]

6. Stocks do not ONLY go up. Sometimes they go sideways or down.

[rzemanfl]

2. Bush lies all the time.

Did you read the PIPA survey before the election? Bush lies so much that his supporters don't even know what his positions are.

[slor]

5. Can you post a link to that?

I have not seen it, but have no doubt that it is true. I would to show a rethug at my new job. TIA

[BlueEyedSon]

9. See link below.

[BlueEyedSon]

8. Here is the PIPA info. While Bush & Co lied, the real damage was

done by the MSM who slavishly echoed the lies, amplifying them 10,000 fold....

Bush Supporters Still Believe Iraq Had WMD or Major Program,
Supported al Qaeda

Agree with Kerry Supporters Bush Administration Still Saying This is the Case

Agree US Should Not Have Gone to War if No WMD or Support for al Qaeda

Bush Supporters Misperceive World Public as Not Opposed to Iraq War,
Favoring Bush Reelection

Even after the final report of Charles Duelfer to Congress saying that Iraq did not have a significant WMD program, 72% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had actual WMD (47%) or a major program for developing them (25%). Fifty-six percent assume that most experts believe Iraq had actual WMD and 57% also assume, incorrectly, that Duelfer concluded Iraq had at least a major WMD program. Kerry supporters hold opposite beliefs on all these points.

Similarly, 75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission. Here again, large majorities of Kerry supporters have exactly opposite perceptions.

These are some of the findings of a new study of the differing perceptions of Bush and Kerry supporters, conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes and Knowledge Networks, based on polls conducted in September and October.

Steven Kull, director of PIPA, comments, "One of the reasons that Bush supporters have these beliefs is that they perceive the Bush administration confirming them. Interestingly, this is one point on which Bush and Kerry supporters agree." Eighty-two percent of Bush supporters perceive the Bush administration as saying that Iraq had WMD (63%) or that Iraq had a major WMD program (19%). Likewise, 75% say that the Bush administration is saying Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda. Equally large majorities of Kerry supporters hear the Bush administration expressing these views--73% say the Bush administration is saying Iraq had WMD (11% a major program) and 74% that Iraq was substantially supporting al Qaeda.

Steven Kull adds, "Another reason that Bush supporters may hold to these beliefs is that they have not accepted the idea that it does not matter whether Iraq had WMD or supported al Qaeda. Here too they are in agreement with Kerry supporters." Asked whether the US should have gone to war with Iraq if US intelligence had concluded that Iraq was not making WMD or providing support to al Qaeda, 58% of Bush supporters said the US should not have, and 61% assume that in this case the President would not have. Kull continues, "To support the president and to accept that he took the US to war based on mistaken assumptions likely creates substantial cognitive dissonance, and leads Bush supporters to suppress awareness of unsettling information about prewar Iraq."

More: http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Pres_Election_04/html/new_10_21_04.html

[rzemanfl]

10. Thank you for getting this right.

I went looking for the link and found I had put in an extra "P." I corrected my post.

This shows the "big lie" in action. Let's face it, the Bush Administration lies so much, so often, that it is almost impossible to keep up with them. Enough people see the lie, believe it and miss the rebuttal so the "faith-based" folks shape reality and the reality based folks break their butts trying to refute one lie before the next one hits. I have the misfortune to know a couple of people who still believe the Kerry 50 cent a gallon gas tax lie.

[kentuck]

11. And why?

Did the Bush supporters continue to believe? Because Cheney and the Adminstration came out immediately to dispute the findings. Just deny it. If the press would have done their job, they would have followed up on these claims by Cheney and others and show them to be liars.

[CoffeeCat]

7. I agree that Bush must be stopped...

...they're ridiculous if they think we don't know what they're doing.

They're dismantling Social Security, piece by piece. Typical.

This is similar to the strategy used by the PNACers, who figured that the hardest part is selling people on the initial step. They're plan to militarily dominate the Middle East began with the marketing of the Iraq War. Same thing with Social Security. They're dismantling it under the guise of "We just wanna give you more money. We're 'reforming' the system."

What a fargin sham.

These initial steps must be beaten down with a large bat. The Democrats damn well better speak out loudly and vociferously against this.

What I don't understand...If billions of dollars leave the system for the stock market, doesn't that create a shortage of available funds, during a time when the baby boomers will be retiring? Doesn't Bush's plan suck money out of the system at a time when the most is needed in the system?

And what happens if the stock market falls? Or if the market is in a downturn when it's your time to retire and receive SS funds?

Do they think we're stupid?

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

14. I wish I would have known this when I called into a RW talk show yesterday

I started a thread yesterday on DU about my results. Although I believe I got the better of this local RW radio neocon, he kept using the 4% number and saying it was a voluntary program.

I also started a thread yesterday that went no where about creating templates using buzzwords, talking points and quick facts on hot topics likes Social Security, tort reform, taxes and election reform. I guess I would really like some guidance for LTTE, writing Congress, calling talk shows, etc. that provides a cohesive voice for opposition...without being offensive or ranting. Would love to have some strong input from those with PR/marketing and political backgrounds. I never became involved in politics until this year and would like some guidance. Thanks.

[Pepperbelly]

15. Have any of you heard the gop cite a $10 trillion SS shortfall? It's CRAP!

Do you know how they are getting that figure?

Simple. They took the SS actuarial situation in SS and projected it over infinity.

That's right. From now to the end of time.

Of course, in actuarial matters, the very longest term forecast that is used for anything is 75 years. The very longest of the long term. In 75 years, the projected shortfall is approximately $2 trillion, roughly 20% of what they are claiming. Interestingly enough, that shortfall could be made up if we rescinded only 25% of Bush's TAX CUTS.

Not additional taxes. Just rolling back 25% of the cuts since Bush got in office and gave away the fucking store.

There is a special place in hell for these grifters.

[Ilsa]

17. Need support? Make up a crisis. That's Bushco SOP. n/t