Kerry does best against Bush in NH

[sandnsea]

"Head to head with Bush, the poll of 600 likely voters gave the president a 25-percentage point lead over Dean, 57-32 percent; 15 points over Kerry, 55-40 percent, and Joe Lieberman 54-39 percent; and 19 points over Clark, 56-37 percent, and Dick Gephardt, 55-36 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points."


http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/local/state/hc-20235239.apds.m0920.bc-ct-democdec20,0,5478446.story?coll=hc-headlines-local-wire

[jmaier]

1. Thanks

Nice result for John Kerry.

[bigtree]

2. kick

:kick:

[Padraig18]

3. Too bad he doesn't do as well against Howard Dean.

Hisd numbers against Bush won't matter, if he can't put together a win against Dean...

[Kahuna]

11. I think our goal is to WIN NH next year. Dean doesn't seem..

to be able to do that. So what good is his large lead in the primary. Just means that the guy most likely to lose to bush could be the nominee. Yet, you seem thrilled about that. :crazy:

[adadem]

20. Excellent point n/t

[AntiCoup2K4]

41. Get real.....

How many of those folks picking Kerry over Shithead (we can still use nicknames for the Moron, right?) would vote for the Chimp over Dean if Kerry wasn't in the race? I would hope none of them.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

42. as hard as it is for you to imagine that happening

it indeed happens. Get real.

[MIMStigator]

4. Kerry, Clark, Lieberman doing better than Dean

and they know Dean in NH

[sandnsea]

5. Really makes me question NH

People won't vote for him against Bush, yet he's winning???? Very peculiar to me.

[Kahuna]

8. It's the darnest thing. He's wildly popular among Democrats..

but in a head to head against bush even democrats desert him to vote for bush. http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp45.html

[Raya]

19. Dean Does Best among Republicans and Independent Likely Voters

Detailed breakdown in past polls show that Dean scored best among Non-Democrats. That either means Dean's moderate-to-reactionary record in Vermont appealed to less partisan folks in NH. or Repub are up to usual meddling.

There is a long tradition in New Hampshire for the Republicans to participate in the DEM primary to try to give a win to the weekest of the leading candidates.

[adadem]

24. Also in Michigan

Republicans messing with Dem primary. We even had pugs run against Dems in the 2002 primary til they got exposed. Not all got kicked off ballot none got prosecuted (it's a felony to falsify Affidavit of Identity).

[Padraig18]

6. Quote:

"...The poll shows, however, that President Bush easily would beat any of them in an election held now. ...."

The election isn't being held now.

[Padraig18]

7. More quotes:

"...Dean, a former Vermont governor, boasted a 24-percentage point lead over Massachusetts Sen. Kerry, 41 percent to 17 percent. Retired Army Gen. Clark showed up third, with 13 percent, followed by Sens. Lieberman of Connecticut and John Edwards of North Carolina at 6 percent; and Reps. Gephardt of Missouri at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 1 percent. Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun attracted less than one percent...



Similar polls for the Monitor show Dean steadily building support since March, from 11 percent in March to this month's 41 percent. Kerry steadily dropped, from 38 percent in March to this month's 17 percent this month. Kerry trailed by 12 percentage points in October, half the latest margin."

:hi:

[IndianaGreen]

9. According to that article, Clark is within 4 points from Kerry

Dean retains lead in New Hampshire

Associated Press

December 20, 2003

CONCORD, N.H. -- Howard Dean retains a solid lead over John Kerry in New Hampshire, double his margin of just two months ago, and Wesley Clark is the only other Democratic presidential candidate with double-digit support in a poll out Saturday.

The poll shows, however, that President Bush easily would beat any of them in an election held now. New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary is Jan. 27.

<snip>

Dean, a former Vermont governor, boasted a 24-percentage point lead over Massachusetts Sen. Kerry, 41 percent to 17 percent. Retired Army Gen. Clark showed up third, with 13 percent, followed by Sens. Lieberman of Connecticut and John Edwards of North Carolina at 6 percent; and Reps. Gephardt of Missouri at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 1 percent. Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun attracted less than one percent.

<snip>

Similar polls for the Monitor show Dean steadily building support since March, from 11 percent in March to this month's 41 percent. Kerry steadily dropped, from 38 percent in March to this month's 17 percent this month. Kerry trailed by 12 percentage points in October, half the latest margin.

http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/local/state/hc-20235239.apds.m0920.bc-ct-democdec20,0,5478446.story?coll=hc-headlines-local-wire

[sandnsea]

14. Dean still does the worst

Makes me wonder why so many people are supporting the candidate they're least likely to vote for against Bush.

[BootinUp]

17. There must be some

ABD-Anybody But Dean Democrats/Indpendents, added together with the Republicans to get that result. It is interesting.

[sandnsea]

25. OR

There's some giggling Independents hijacking the Democratic primary.

[lurk_no_more]

33. Oh, I think we can safely say

that this may be because some of those supporting dean in the primary, won't be in the General.



Food for thought from….”JAFO”

[BootinUp]

15. Quite a drop from 3rd to 4th

Clark has cemented his position and is now threatening Kerry. Even if he loses to Kerry, it demonstrates quite a bit of strength for Clark, and should lead to a Dean / Clark showdown in the next primaries.

woot!

On Dean vs. Bush, it has to be a concern. But I've been concerned about that for a while now.

[WiseMen]

38. Clark 2nd would be huge for his campaign.

[jjmalonejr]

10. Open Primary in NH

Republicans, Democrats and Independents can vote in the NH primary. Don't you think a lot of Bush-lovers are expressing support for the guy they think will be the easiest for Bush to beat?

[Raya]

21. That has been the TRADITION. Dean's Campaign Knows This "On-The-QT"

[KaraokeKarlton]

12. So

It doesn't matter how he does against Bush in NH when he's so far behind Dean.

[LouisFC]

13. Why doesn't it matter

Do you want a nominee or a president?

[Padraig18]

16. I want a nominee who best represents my views. n/t

[oasis]

18. Some so-called Democrats are more concerned with "remaking" the party.

Having a candidate that can actually beat Bush in 2004? That's icing on the cake.

[Scott Lee]

22. Some so called democrats support the Statists.

Which is humorously contradictory in itself.

[adadem]

27. exactly n/t

[Scott Lee]

23. As Dean continues to lead the pack in support and dollars....

What a conundrum! Can anyone explain this bizarre phenomenon - I mean, without invoking bigfoot, UFOs, angels, The Illuminati or Satan?

[BootinUp]

26. Basically

some NH democrats when the only choice is Dean or Bush are picking Bush. I don't know how else it can be interpreted.

Keep in mind that 59% of the dems did not vote for Dean. Its more of that moderate/conservative democrat weakness. This is not the first poll to show that.

[oasis]

28. I't almost as bizzare as the Amway and Tupperware phenomenon. Or

even the pyramid schemes.

[adadem]

29. This time around

all I am focusing on is which candidate can beat bush. This data has been shown in previous polls. Kerry has the best chance at beating bush.

[IndianaGreen]

30. Which candidate can beat Bush?

The one that the media tells you is going to win?

Since the media determines how much coverage they give to candidates, (just ask Dennis Kucinich about that) and since polls are driven by name recognition (which is also directly related to TV coverage), what is the criteria you use to determine who can beat Bush?

It can't be anything but subjective!

[WiseMen]

31. Do you have links to Dean/Kerry/Clark vs Bush Nationally.

[zulchzulu]

37. Lookee here. Dean gets his hat handed back to him

Here are the ugly details of a Dean candidacy. Dean supporters love to show off polls...except this one...

WashPost/ABC
12/20/03
-----------------------------------Bush--55-----------Dean----37

Past national polls, which asked more head-to-head questions, showed repeatedly that Dean fares much worse against Bush than Senator John Kerry or General Wesley Clark.

WashPost/ABC
11/02/03
-----------------------------------Bush--54-----------Dean----39
-----------------------------------Bush--51-----------Clark----40
-----------------------------------Bush--50-----------Kerry----44

USAT/CNN/Gallup
9/21/03
-----------------------------------Bush--49-----------Dean----46
-----------------------------------Bush--46-----------Clark----49
-----------------------------------Bush--47-----------Kerry----48

Dean’s lack of military and foreign policy experience is at least vaguely understood by the public at large. “ …when asked in the poll whether they trusted the president or Dean more to handle national security and the war on terrorism, 67 percent said Bush and 21 percent Dean. “

By and large, the democratic voter does not know Howard Dean, but they have effectively been “signaled” by media attention and the Gore endorsement that Dean is the inevitable Democratic Nominee, and they will support him though fairly convinced that he will not win the Presidency.

This is a tragedy for our times. The Bush regime has been such a disaster that the 2004 election should have been a Democratic landslide. By this time in the process the primary front-runner should have been a party standard-bearer with a double-digit lead over Bush.

Fritz Hollings bemoaned that fact that Democratic Senators had been “had, hood-winked, bamboozled” into the IWR vote. Now, it is the Democratic voters that are being had, hoodwinked and bamboozled, and by forces that appear beyond our control.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22493-2003Dec22.html

[andym]

32. This large gap is extremely worrisome

especially because people in NH are generally more
cognizant of presidential politics, because of their
unique position as the first primary state.

This was a state that Bush only won narrowly.

My question is why is there such a large gap?
This could suggest that we are starting at a big disadvantage
in the electoral college relative to 2000.

My answer is that the election of 2004 is not a rerun of
the election of 2000. We have to realize that in addition
to huge monetary advantage and friendly press, Bush has twin advantages of being an incumbent President and being a wartime President. He will be difficult to beat. Not impossible, but we have to take into account his strengths in order to determine how to defeat him.
See my thread for an analysis based on history:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4654


Elections in the US are won with the apolitical center, whether registered as Democrats, Republicans or Independents, it is these people who spend at most a few hours a year thinking about politics who make and break political success in America. It takes a big scandal (Watergate), or big event (9/11) to really alter these people's perceptions. In fact, most of the people who don't bother to vote fit into this category as well.

[oasis]

35. And speaking of "gaps" Dr. Dean plans to pick a VP to "plug the hole"

in his foreign policy "resume". There's not much in that statement that would raise my confidence level.

[mitchum]

34. kick

[WiseMen]

36. New WP/ABC Poll shows same pattern nationally

[Donna Zen]

39. Only fools would ignore the trend

Ignoring this trend until it womps us in November would be a fool's pursuit. While we wait for America to wake up, many Democrats seem to content to chortle and nod out.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

40. I'm no fool

and I'm not ignoring it.