Will Dean be finished if he doesn't win NH...or comes in 3rd?

[mot78]

Dean's hope for staying alive rests in NH, but what if he doesn't win? If he comes in 2nd or 3rd, he may still have wads of cash, but Big Mo' trumps that.

However, anything can happen in this election, so my prediction is as good as anyone else's.

[meegbear]

1. No ...

He's the last person I would see dropping out.

It's a long time between now and convention time. Anything could happen between now and then, but I don't think that's gonna happen.

[NashVegas]

5. I Think So Too

1. Dean has a big kitty.

2. If Dean blows New Hampshire and continues to run, the Reich Wing media isn't going to know what to do. Do they continue to cover Dean with negative story after negative story while Kerry et al get a free pass .. what I'm trying to get at is, they aren't going to know which threat to try to eliminate.

[adamrsilva]

2. If he gets third, he's done

I doubt he could do much with second either, but I'm sure he'll stay in any case given his money.

[One Taste]

3. I agree if he finishes 3rd

hes done.

[markus]

4. But will we drop out?

Ask me again next Wednesday. It will be five days to the North Dakota primary and crunch time. How hard am I going to crunch if Dean and Trippi can't pull it together? I honestly don't know.

[mohc]

6. Things to keep in mind

Before Iowa became a tight race, conventional wisdom was that Dean would win Iowa and NH, and only 1 other contender would be able to survive, probably Clark but possibly Kerry. Then in a two-way race, The "anti-Dean" effect would take hold and the contender would sweep in to the nomination. Although he certainly is hurt by finishing 3rd, not winning Iowa I think was helpful. For Dean to win, he needs it to be a 3-way race going into Super Tuesday. The anti-Dean vote will be split and because of the way delegates get allocated with the 15% minimums, Dean winning in the high 30's low 40's will give him the delegate edge. Going into NH now, we have 4 legitimate contenders, and unless Clark finishes behind Edwards, that will be the case into Feb. Ideally, Dean would like Clark to establish himself to prolong the Clark-Edwards battle for the south, while holding Kerry at bay. Clark, Dean, Kerry, Edwards is probably Deans best results at this point, although he would obviously enjoy coming in first. At this point, I think Dean would only be truly crippled by finishing 4th or worse.

[ps1074]

7. He needs to win period

Anything but a win in NH will be the end for Dean.