Will Edwards be finished if he finishes 4th in NH..?

[cthrumatrix]

Again...this must be the type of question that DU'ers want to know..since we see this all the time.

Who will you vote 2nd for? Does he have enough money to even last the race?

(do you see how stupid these questions seem --- message to DU'ers..cut the crap)

[One Taste]

1. No.

:hi:

[CMT]

2. No

I think Edwards will be in the top three. But if he does come in fourth in NH but still gets at least 15% it will be ok. His real contest will be in SC.

[cthrumatrix]

4. yes...that must be a test to win your home state

[kcr]

3. No

He has Feb 3rd to fall back on. If he doesn't do well there, then he is done.

[Democrats unite]

5. Clark, Dean, Edwards, Kerry...

None of these will be dropping out, whatever happens in NH. They all will stay till at least Super Tuesday.

[bigwillq]

10. I agree

Even if Edwards finsihes 4th, there is Super Tuesday and some of the Southern States ahead where Edwards should do well.

[leftist_rebel1569]

6. I'd seriously doubt it

He still has the SC primary. If he doesn't do well there...then he's in trouble. But, I doubt he'll do bad with his current momentum.

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. No, but he is finished if he doesn't win South Carolina

If he can't win there, he can't win anywhere (except NC of course).

[leyton]

8. I think mostly

Edwards has to contend with Clark so that he can do strongly in South Carolina.

The way I see it, Kerry and Clark and Dean will go into New Hampshire and one of them will probably come out really damaged and the other two will keep going. And Edwards will come out too, and if his numbers are close to Clark's, he's got a decent shot.

[cthrumatrix]

9. three way dog fight if you throw in Kerry as the front runner.

[carpetbagger]

11. Absolutely not.

He did very, very well in the midwest. There are two local candidates in NH. Clark's put a lot of effort there. It's no disgrace, and it still gives him one of four tickets out of New Hampshire.

From there to the nomination would look like this:

Edwards wins SC on Feb 3d, and does well in MO and OK (remember Missouri? it's now wide open.) Even if he loses MI and WA, if he can beat Clark in VA and TN it gets him one of two spots going into March Madness. I think if Kerry runs strong, but not too strong, or if Kerry tanks completely and unexpectedly and it becomes Clark-Edwards, that it will come down to Pennsylvania.

[spooky3]

15. actually, THREE could be considered "local"

Dean, Kerry, Lieberman

plus Clark has invested FAR more time in NH than Edwards has.

It's really not a test of anything, any more than Iowa was a test of Clark's appeal in Iowa.

[mlawson]

12. No, but I wonder who the top Dem power brokers favor

for the nomination. I have worried about this from the get-go, and after last night I am really worried; it seems my longtime prediction might come true.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. No, but it would take a lot of wind out of his sails.

[chaska]

14. Don't you mean 'when', he finishes 4th?

or worse.

[Sly Kal]

16. yes

[ShaneGR]

17. No, the SC primary is the following week

He'll be fine. BTW, I bet he takes 3rd..... ahead of Dean.

[Lady President]

18. No

I'm sure he wants to do well, but NH is just a bridge between Iowa and SC. NH can help him, but can't do much damage.

[mmonk]

19. nope