Brand new Zogby Poll on NBC - Dean 25 Kerry 23 Clark 16 Edwards 7

[ringmastery]

Poll taken Jan 18-20. I think this is the first poll with part of sample after the bounce from Iowa. Russert said in today's polling alone Kerry was ahead of Dean.

New Hampshire

Dean 25
Kerry 23
Clark 16
Edwards 7
Lieberman 7

[BobbyJay]

1. Surprised at Edwards.

Kerry's numbers will continue to rise IMO. Especially after the debates.

[incapsulated]

2. Looks pretty much the same except

Everyone's up a point or two?

[robsul82]

3. Looks like it to me.

Except I'm surprised Edwards' numbers aren't further up. Wow.

Later.

RJS

[David Dunham]

4. Kerry will continue to gain ground

[WI_DEM]

5. don't be surprised to see this

Kerry will probably take a small lead in the next day or two. That is expected given his bounce from Iowa. But if Dean can keep it close and if he keeps up what he did today--a wonderful speech and question and answer session with voters and a more calm and relaxed candidate who is hitting issues like health care and jobs. He can get back in the lead by the weekend and win this primary.

[spooky3]

6. I'd like to see Edwards' #s go up

but given that he has done little campaigning there, and he's tied with someone who is a neighbor of NH, that's not bad. I'll be happy if he can get into double digits.

[ringmastery]

7. link

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=4172399

[I Lean Left]

8. If Edwards were to somehow finish ahead of Dean

That will be a body blow to Dean. For Dean to lose to Kerry at this point wouldn't be fatal. To finish third again would be devestating. I also think if Edwards finishes ahead of Clark and Dean after not really campaigning there, he will lock up no worse than the VP slot, with a real shot of going further.

Quick question: why such a focus on South Carolina when there are other primaries the same day, some with more delegates at stake?

[spooky3]

9. focus by whom?

[HFishbine]

10. First test of the South (nt)

[anti-bush]

12. Focus on South Carolina

South Carolina is the first in the South (as stated above), and it is more representative of the typical state than the others. It is not 95% or more white, like Iowa and New Hampshire.

[anti-bush]

11. And Zogby's numbers were so good in Iowa

I know, I'm an Edwards supporter, and I'm just trashing the poll because my numbers are low.

But we don't have any tracking yet to see movement. I think you'll see Edwards up at 15% or so by Friday, with Kerry ahead of Dean by a 4 or 5 point margin. My prediction (which means nothing) is this:

Kerry 26
Dean 22
Clark 16
Edwards 15
Lieberman 6
Other/Undecided 15


Just my guess.