Is it over if Kerry wins NH?

[CalebHayes]

I think it could be.

[La_Serpiente]

1. No

South Carolina and all the other primaries the same day will be the deciding factor.

[CalebHayes]

3. People want to vote for a "winner" though

[Kathleen04]

9. It will give him an edge..

but then he'll be subjected to scrutiny and the people will make up their minds whether he's their guy or whether they want someone else.

[JI7]

2. clark and edwards in south carolina

clark and edwards are both in until at least south carolina where they both are expected to do good because it's their area (the south)just like dean and kerry are expected to do good in new hampshire(new england). if they don't do good in those areas they are seen as weak because people percieve it as them losing in an area of the nation where they are from and therefore should do good. kerry got a boost from iowa, we will see how he does in new hampshire now. but i think even with a second place finish, kerry's win in iowa should keep him in it until super tuesday. same for dean who is still leading in new hampshire, but should go into super tuesday if he gets a strong second. if clark and edwards get first and second place in south carolina both should go into super tuesday. it's kind of complicated, but that's how it is.

[deminflorida]

4. That's right and if Clark or Edwards do well on Super Tuesday

but don't close it out...then they will on March 9th...

Florida
Louisiana
Mississippi

Florida is huge and so is Louisiana...

Remember Bob Graham anyone?

[KaraokeKarlton]

14. I think Graham is going to endorse Dean right before Florida

Dean publicly implied that he wants to see Graham serve in politics again. And he is definitely considering Graham as VP. When Dean wins NH, it's as good as done in my opinion.

[Nashyra]

6. No

Clark and Edwards will do good in the South. I can see a Kerry/Clark/Edwards race if Dean does not do well in NH and that is a big if. I think that Dean needs NH the most but things are entirely different in a voting booth. It will probably be the four of them until after the 3rd. IMHO

[LuminousX]

5. He'll need to prove he can win in the south as well

Remember, he is SUPPOSED to win New Hampshire. Anything short of a win keeps him on unstable ground.

[JI7]

8. ok if dean beats kerry, bad if clark in new hampshire

since dean is also from the same area it wont be much of an upset, especially since dean is already leading. but if clark comes out ahead of kerry in new hampshire, it will hurt, but i do think kerry's iowa win will keep him in until super tuesday at least unless he does really horrible in new hampshire such as come in 4th which i can't see happening.

[Kathleen04]

7. Nope..

if Kerry wins NH, it's just begun. NH is Kerry's backyard--I expect him to come in 1st or 2nd, but then he'll have to prove himself in the February 3rd states and then we'll see.

[Toucano]

10. Hardly.

Clinton won neither Iowa nor New Hampshire.

Kerry hasn't been to South Carolina since the day he announced.

The last poll I saw had him at 2%. Iowa and NH will not influence South Carolina.

[OKNancy]

30. Hasn't been to Oklahoma either

...and there is a biggie on Feb 3rd that everyone seems to be discounting. Missouri. With Gephardt gone those 74 delegates are up for grabs... ( Missouri has the biggest delegate count of the Feb. 3rd states)

[Mz Pip]

11. No

I'm not convinced his Northeast liberal label will play well in the South. I'm holding my breath until the Feb primaries are over.

MzPip
:dem:

[KaraokeKarlton]

12. hell no...

First of all, Kerry isn't going to win NH. This isn't a caucus where wheeling and dealing can take place. This is a primary where people are all alone in the voting booth with no pressure and no fear of what others will say if they vote for the one they really want to vote for.

Besides, there is no way in hell the south is going to vote for Kerry after he claimed that he "doesn't need the south". Southern Democrats are sick and tired of Democrats insulting them based on where they live with stereotypes and foolishness and THEN having the audacity to feel entitled to their vote. I'm convinced the south is going to send a strong message that if you want their vote, you damn well better go try to earn it, both the black and the white vote. The other Democrats don't want the poor white vote. Dean does. Oh, and NASCAR Dads will LOVE the fact that the Dean supporters are going to sponsor a driver. Nothing like a red white and blue Chevy Monte Carlo advertising Howard Dean hitting the NASCAR circuit!

[Jerseycoa]

32. Graham sponsored a NASCAR

And it didn't help him. I think Kerry can win NH easily. It's the swing south that will challenge Kerry. We'll see.

[IndianaGreen]

13. Let's see how Kerry does South of the Mason-Dixon line

I think that Wes Clark will give Kerry a run for his life. Edwards will too! Dean is not dead yet!

[Maddy McCall]

26. Clark or Edwards will take southern states.

Lots of Clark support down here. Lots of military families down here who are speaking out for Clark.

[Leilani]

15. No

He needs to win races in more than NH; needs to show he's a national candidate.

I'm tired of the efforts to declare "anyone" the nominee. We have a while to go yet.

[fabius]

16. Not necessarily...

Even if Kerry wins big in NH, he'll still have to battle out the Super Tuesday states; Clark and Edwards strong in the South, Dean and Clark strong in the West, Lieberman? I don't know anymore.

Dean needs a strong showing in NH. I believe he'll get it.

Kerry still has to scramble to make it happen for him.

I'm looking at this as an exciting competition, unlike some others I'm not getting really emotional about it. Well somewhat.

We have 3 people (me, my wife and sister) for Dean, my Mom for Clark, Dad for Kerry, step-mom for Braun (now she will have to pick somebody else. It's all sort of in the family, so we can't get too shrill about it. And we'll be OK if any strong Democrat wins.

[VirginiaIs4Lieberman]

18. Lieberman can still pull it off

I don't think mainstream America is so far to the left as the rest of them. Lieberman is about right. Most people are social liberals and strong on national defense. I like his chances. If anything was proven yesterday it was proven that we can ignore the polls.

[Kathleen04]

22. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

Stick around, Lieberman supporters are a rare commodity around here.

[mikehiggins]

17. Didn't we just finish hearing this about Dean for two months?

It's over when one candidate has enough delegates to win the nomination. At this point we are far from that.

Dean and Clark both have enough money to keep going even if they totally tank in NH. Edwards may be running low. Kerry can mortgage another house.

Joe2004, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kuchinich will probably hand in for a while more, picking up the odd delegate here and there.

WOuldn't it be the height of irony if Dennis ended up with enough delegates to tip the count to one man or the other? Surely the gods could not be that cruel.

Let's see what happens Thursday at the debate. I'm already anticipating seeing Brit Hume do his best to screw with Clark. It should be pretty clear that Clark is the man to beat from the point of view of the White House. Hume will only make it more obvious.

[VirginiaIs4Lieberman]

19. Sharpton will stay till the end

He wants a speech at the convention. He'll be there.

[quinnox]

20. If Kerry wins NH I wouldn't say it's over

but what I would say is it would put Kerry well on the way to capturing the nomination. It would make Kerry the front-runner, and it is entirely possible he could then win on momentum wire to wire.

It's an interesting contest, in one mini-duel it is the three NE candidates battling - Lieberman vs. Dean vs. Kerry. I think Lieberman is the weakest in this three way contest, and it will be between Dean and Kerry for the NE liberal candidate.

Then there is the Clark and Edwards southern candidate duel, one of these will win out over the other.

Another way to look at it is three candidates are running as "outsiders", these are Edwards, Dean and Clark. The insiders are now down to Kerry and Lieberman, since Gep is out.

[Adjoran]

21. if Kerry wins NH

It is over for Dean, for practical purposes. Kerry will have enough buzz to show in SC, and the Dean/Clark support in the west is yet untested.

A couple of weeks ago, several Dean supporters were saying it's over if he won Iowa and NH . . . they don't seem to feel the same way if Kerry wins them both.

This race is wide open right now. Money will begin to flow to Kerry and Edwards after their Iowa performance. Clark has enough for the time being, too.

[Guaranteed]

23. If he wins NH, it means that voters don't know who the hell to pick,

that they don't really have any confidence in anyone, and that we should all just throw in the towel, cuz we ain't gonna beat Bush. If we can't convince our own party to vote for our candidates, we aren't going to convince the middle.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. Oh those dumb voters just can't be trusted, eh?

[xultar]

25. No it isn't n/t

[IndianaGreen]

27. Is it over if Kerry loses NH?

Iowa and NH are very small states. I don't know of any candidate that ever dropped after NH other than incumbent Presidents Johnson in 1968 and Truman in 1952.

[PAMod]

28. If Kerry loses NH, Iowa never happened.

He has to win NH to keep going.

If Dean places lower than 2nd, he's done - the money and support elsewhere will dry up. I guess technically he could continue, but why would he? I think if Dean pulls off NH, he is again the man to beat, and it will be a Dean/Clark/Edwards fight, for a while at least.

Funny thing, with Kerry doing well, suddenly Clark doesn't look too interesting. My intuition (which, admittedly, has been poor lately) says that they are in a side-competition.

It'll be interesting, that's for sure.

[ACPS65]

29. No

but it would be a formality.

[Cuban_Liberal]

31. No.

At this point, A Kerry 'win' would be 'meeting expectations', IMO. A strong second-place finish by Dr. Dean could well earn him the 'comeback kid' award, and a first-place finish propels him back into the front. A strong showing by Edwards (maybe even 3rd) hurts Clark, as does a 1st or 2nd place finish by Kerry.

This things is a long way from being over, IMO. :)

[Monte Carlo]

33. It'd be a big obstacle for the other candidates to overcome...

... not impossible, though. Edwards and Clark would have a much better time coping than northerners like Dean and Lieberman.

I am really hoping Kerry can pull another win in NH. He's got the local politician and paper support that could replicate the win in Iowa.