Latest ARG NewHampshire Tracking poll: Dean-2, Clark-1, Kerry +4

[flpoljunkie]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Dean 26%, Kerry 24%, Clark 18% and Edwards 9%, Lieberman 7%--with undecided at 13%.

While Howard Dean has a 2 percentage-point lead over John Kerry in the 3-day average, Kerry has a 1 percentage-point lead in the 2-day average (sample size of 508 likely Democratic primary voters) and Kerry has a 5 percentage-point lead in the one-day sample on January 20 (the sample size of 302 likely Democratic voters, theoretical margin of error ± 6 percentage points). Also, from January 19 to January 20, Wesley Clark is up 1 percentage point and John Edwards is up 3 percentage points. There is no change for Joe Lieberman.

[maddezmom]

1. NH is going to be another stomach churner for me

going to have to get my Maalox out for sure. :)

[isbister]

2. Edwards

got a smaller bounce than I thought he would... so far

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. So far, yes.

I think the continuing erosion of Clark's numbers is noteworthy, as well.

[boxster]

7. Clark was up a point in the past two days.

Doesn't sound like "erosion" to me.

[Justice]

9. Clark Went Up Over Last Day

See the comments. Clark and Edwards went up in the last day.

No question, Clark has gone done as Kerry has gone up. But I take heart in Clark going up on Jan 20 1 point.

[Justice]

6. Read Comments About Edwards

The bounce for one day was 3 points. I think Edwards will go up 3 points plus over the next 3 days.

[Jerseycoa]

11. Right, by Friday it should shake out nt

[Cuban_Liberal]

12. I agree.

He and Sen. Kerry are both going to be cutting into Gen. Clark's numbers, IMO. Dean may actually benefit to a degree by the Kerry and Clark finishes in Iowa.

[DancingBear]

4. Oh boy

Being on the ground in NH for this one is gonna be all kinds of fun!

[boxster]

5. So much for the pundits who didn't think the Iowa results would affect

NH, though it's also a fact that Kerry was climbing in NH before the Iowa result. This could certainly be a continuation of that climb.

As a Clark supporter, I have to admit that Kerry looks very strong in NH right now. We may end up fighting Dean for second.

[Cuban_Liberal]

8. You may also wind up fighting Sen. Edwards for 3rd.

*grin* ;)

[boxster]

26. That could certainly be true.

It'll be interesting to see where the polls are by the weekend.

[DancingBear]

31. Ya never know

I lived in NH for 12 years and I STILL can't figure the damn place out! :)

[Cuban_Liberal]

32. LOL!

I've visited there, and to call the people 'unique' would be to damn with faint praise. i've never met folks who were as independent and 'contrary' as hogs on ice anywhere else. :P

[Jerseycoa]

10. You don't see Dean fighting for first? nt

[boxster]

27. Honestly? No.

I think Kerry already had some serious momentum in NH before Iowa, and I think Dean's speech Monday is going to have a negative effect for him in the short-term.

I think that those two factors could be enough to propel Kerry to the win, though I certainly don't claim to be an expert. Dean's support base could certainly be stronger than the recent decline in the polls (and the Iowa results) would seem to suggest.

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. Makes sense that Kerry was climbing before the Iowa vote.

Kerry was climbing in Iowa before that vote also. That gave reason for former Kerry supporters, who had moved to their second choice Clark when Kerry seemed to be tanking, to move back to Kerry. That move anticipated the Iowa results to some extant, based on the news coverage of Kerry surging there.

NH is in Kerry's back yard, and he spent much of a year campaigning there. Now that Kerry is "viable" again, he should be doing well in NH. We are back to the old conventional wisdom in a way. Clark can't be "expected" to beat the two New Englanders, Kerry and Dean, in NH. He only moved into second there because Kerry seemed like a lost cause for awhile. Clark still needs a respectable third place showing.

[TreasonousBastard]

13. Makes sense...

everyone heard about Iowa, so Kerry and Edwards get a blip, being the big winners. Everybody likes a winner, and a few people took second looks at them figuring Iowans may be on to something.

A few people dumped Dean because they don't like losers, and Kerry, Clark, and Edwards each got some of them.

Nobody much seems to like Lieberman.

But, screw the polls-- what counts is the vote.

[DancingBear]

14. If the next days numbers continue the trend - the order flips

This is very bad news for Dean. I never thought I would say this, but a 3rd place finish for him is not out of the question. Kerry is surging, Clark is holding/slightly gaining, and Edwards is picking off undecideds and former Dean folks.

[Maddy McCall]

15. Quite possibly fourth place.

We shall see, though.

[funky_bug]

19. The wisdom of my hubby

He also reminds me that Kerry was polling low, and dropping in IA... fat lot of prediction that one was!

Keep in mind... anything can, has and will happen.

(maalox ready, just in case his words of wisdom don't soothe the raging beast within)

[Monte Carlo]

16. Lieberman is mostly finished, anyway.

If he can't do well in N.H., it'd take a miracle for the most-annoying-voiced Senator in the North to play well in the South.

[deminflorida]

17. Deans numbers have only begun to fall....

The media coverage yesterday of YEAHHHHH and the Star Spangeld Banner song have had no effect yet. They will, this is ARG Daily Tracking..By Saturday Dean will be below 15% just in time for Primary Voting....

Clark/Kerry 1st and 2nd
Edwards 3rd
Dean 4th
Lieberman 5th (and a distant 5th I might add). He'll battle Dean for fourth just so he can go to South Carolina.....

[windansea]

24. we'll have to start a prediction thread soon

in the Iowa prediction thread...only 7-8 posters out of more than 100 got the order of finish correct

[bearfartinthewoods]

25. is there any viability issue in NH? a 15% cut-off?

[boxster]

28. No, it's a primary, not a caucus.

[Cuban_Liberal]

30. Yes, there is.

Candidates must still get 10% to get any delegates. I don't know how NH determines this, but in IL it's done by congressional district.

[bearfartinthewoods]

36. thank you

[flpoljunkie]

29. Yes, 10% to be eligible to receive delegates.

http://www.primarymonitor.com/news/stories2004/delegate_procedure.shtml

II. A presidential candidate must receive at least 10 percent, before any rounding to the nearest whole number, of the total vote cast for all presidential candidates of his political party to be eligible for a share of the apportioned delegates.

[boxster]

33. I stand corrected.

[flpoljunkie]

34. Love your signature, boxster.

[boxster]

35. Thanks.

I added it shortly after seeing the first couple of political ads in the Iowa campaign.

I thought it was rather appropriate for DU!

[bearfartinthewoods]

37. thank you too

[poskonig]

18. I told you guys Iowa matters.

A lot of people, when their candidates were down, claimed that early states don't matter, the media coverage for the winner doesn't matter, and momentum was a bunch of bull.

[Stuckinthebush]

20. Yikes!

That is scary.

[John_H]

21. Time for Dean Supporters to face reality.

Momentum is huge in close races-at least every race I remember. Dean has nowhere to go but down.

No, I'm not saying you should stop fighting for your guy, but I hope you're thinking about the important decision you'll soon have to make--am I a "Real Democrat" like I've been bragging about? Or am I a the political equivalent of a super bowl bandwagon jumper who tunes out when my team loses?

Sure, I'll put my money where my mouth is. I'll work my ass to prove my dean is unelectable arguments wrong. Will you?

[Cuban_Liberal]

23. "Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."--- Mark Twain

A week is a lifetime in politics, and I think its' quite premature to be writing Dr. Dean's obituary. Just ask some Kerry supporters about that, if you think I'm wrong. :)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

38. Reports of Dean's loss in Iowa, gaffes, and falling poll #s are accurate