Why Iowa matters to Clark

[Ficus]

Why Iowa matters to Clark

This is, in my opinion, why Iowa has really thrown a wrench into how we all thought his might go.

I was anticipating a regular "let's nominate the obvious frontrunner" caucus. Like Bradley-Gore in 2000, or Clinton 1996, or Harkin in 1992, I anticipated no huge earthquakes coming from the land between two rivers.

Clark needed Dean to win in Iowa. Clark needed Dean to come running full steam out of Iowa, with the only hope to stop him was to jump on the Clark express. Carrying the anti-dean banner into the south and the rest of the country was what Clark needed.

Now Clark faces two new serious threats. Kerry, who showed that his campaign wasn't dead, and is strong on national security issues, as is Clark. Kerry now not only shows well in Iowa, he wins! Kerry showed that he is a contender again.

Edwards also showed himself as a contender, as where he wasn't really considered one before. Now, instead of Clark being the obvious favorite son in the south, he must now face Edwards there as a serious and contending candidate.

Clark needed Dean to knock out everyone to win, and that didn't happen. I just now think with his late start, strategically speaking, it will be a much harder road for him.

Good luck Clark, you'd be a fine President. It'll be a tougher road ahead than you thought. Welcome to your introduction into national politics!

[eileen_d]

1. Interesting analysis

I was sure surprised by Iowa, but frankly I'm just happy that candidates I like got the first two places. (I also like Clark and Kucinich)

Iowa certainly makes things more interesting than DU's Dean vs. Clark obsession. Maybe I'm just not ready for that shitstorm to go public, LOL -- and who knows, maybe it won't happen at all!

[democratreformed]

2. As a Clark supporter,

I never pretended to know how it would go. I certainly have no idea. But, I can say that I believe we will continue after New Hampshire - no matter what the outcome.
I don't pretend to know how certain things affect others, either b/c I am new at really paying attention. It's funny how many different view there are of the same events and what they mean to each candidate.
I have decided to take a "wait and see" attitude.

[Ficus]

5. I still think clark can do it

and the only way to know is to wait and see. I just think it'll be tougher.

[Quixote1818]

9. One on One time will pay off for Clark with undecided voters

Having had New Hampshire all to himself for the past few weeks and all the one on one contact Clark has had with thousands of undecided voters in my opinion will pay off big for Clark in the end. Clark is also looked at, as the toughest opponent for Bush by most people and that seems to be the main thing people are voting on this year. Clark is within striking distance and it will all depend on where the undecided voters fall. I don't think they will go to Dean. Dean's base is solid but people are looking for a winner. It will come down to Clark and Kerry. May the best man win.

[HFishbine]

3. Good for Dean

With Clark, Kerry, and Edwards competing, Dean benefits. I'm now convinced that the longer this race lasts without a clear front runner, the better for Dean.

[Jerseycoa]

6. Dean's now going to have to fight

both Clark AND Kerry. Iowa didn't leave him enough strength. And he's got to watch Edwards coming up from behind him. I don't see Dean having benefited from this at all.

[Ficus]

7. actually, the tread should be why Iowa matters to everyone

because you're right.

Dean is weaker
Clark is weaker
Kerry is stronger
Edwards is stronger
and we know Dennis is in till the end.

which puts them all about equal in my book.

[Hokie]

4. Excellent analysis

I think you are absolutely correct with that analysis. I thought Clark's best shot was to be the white night who could swoop in and "save" the party from Dean. Now there are viable alternatives in Kerry and Edwards and Clark's late start and inexperience in running a campaign will hurt.

[Jerseycoa]

8. Exactly right

"Clark needed Dean to win in Iowa. Clark needed Dean to come running full steam out of Iowa, with the only hope to stop him was to jump on the Clark express. Carrying the anti-dean banner into the south and the rest of the country was what Clark needed."

Kerry throws a big strong wrench into the works for Clark. It's going to be a battle frigging royal in NH. The South, the West, though, it's all something else. Kerry's play in other regions of the country hasn't been tested by Iowa.

[Ficus]

11. true but

Edwards will give him a run in the south

[Jerseycoa]

15. True, yes

I was responding to what you said about Clark.

I think Edwards is outstanding. :)

[tameszu]

10. Alternate analysis:

Even though Kerry getting stronger is harmful for Clark's efforts in NH, as is the same vis a vis Edwards to a smaller extent in SC, Clark's main competition in all of the Feb. 3 states was Dean, and Dean took a much, much bigger hit from IA than Clark did.

This therefore presents a huge opportunity for Clark:

-2nd in NH behind Kerry INSTEAD of Dean, and mortally wounding Dean right there.
-Then winning between 5-7 states on Feb. 3--even if Clark only places a tight 2nd to Edwards in SC, forcing Edwards to completely exhaust himself there.

If you doubt the prospects on the last statement, remember that only Clark and Dean (and to a small extent, Lieberman) have been running ads in a significant number of Feb. 3 states, which is why Kerry and Edwards are polling in single digits in all of the SW states. SC is by no means the be and end all of the primaries outside the NE (which is a saving grace for Kerry, who is at 2% in SC).

[Ficus]

12. I hope Iowa was a lesson to all

about how quickly polls and early expectations mean jack, and can literally change overnight.

If Dean doesn't win NH, as you have suggested above he's done.

[tameszu]

13. Actually, the late polls showing Kerry's climb

were pretty good indicators.

Resources and time mean a lot too. Why do you think Kerry dropped when Clark had NH to himself? Why do you think Kerry's numbers in IA only started to shoot up when he decided to camp out there non-stop. It's true that Edwards didn't have as much organization in IA as the other candidates. But he was also running there almost non-stop.

But in the Feb. 3 states outside of SC, Dean and Clark have almost literally had a completely open court--they're the only candidates with the money to run TV ads there. Kerry may have some chance working with his single digits, but it is very hard to be in 6 places at once, and both he and Edwards have a ton of ground to make up in only 7 days.

I am not complacent. I am just saying that IA and NH are not the end all and be all. OK, let's all get back to working to promote Clark's candidacy!

[Ficus]

14. Youre right about IA and NH

but they do determine momentum. However, there are 48 more states to win, so good luck with the battle!

I was and am a strong believer that organization wins elections, but by far Dean and Gephardt had the best organizations, and look at their finish here. It's baffling to me.

My point about the polling was that even at Christmas time, or later, I would have predicted a Dean blowout, as did many polls. It wasn't until the LAST 5 DAYS that the polling even showed anything coherent in my opinion.

[Ficus]

16. feel like kicking

this. so there.